Why Depth Is Critical for 49ers After Difficult 2015 Offseason

The 2015 NFL offseason so far has been a long, winding journey into unfamiliar waters for the San Francisco 49ers. They’ve pitched and rolled through mostly violent seas, with only the odd sprinkle of sunlight.

It all began with a still inexplicable decision to move on from Jim Harbaugh and promote Jim Tomsula to be his head coach successor. That seems like a distant memory now, though, so let’s deal with the more recent sources of fear and loathing.

Middle linebacker Patrick Willis left both the 49ers and football. His shocking decision to retire at the still relatively ripe age of 30 removed one of the best all-around linebackers of his generation from San Francisco’s defense.

Then there’s defensive tackle Justin Smith, whose decision to also walk away feels inevitable even if it isn’t official yet. Multiple sources told ProFootballTalk Smith will end a 14-year career, though 49ers general manager Trent Baalke isn’t forcing the veteran’s hand.

With that retirement and assumed retirement, the 49ers are losing two defensive pillars.

Another cornerstone was also removed when running back Frank Gore walked as a free agent, leaving for the Indianapolis Colts. The beat went on: Guard Mike Iupati left too, along with cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox.

Six starters from 2014 have either migrated elsewhere or retired (assuming Smith’s retirement becomes official). Soon another will be added to that list when wide receiver Michael Crabtree finally finds employment.

Replacements have been pursued during free agency, highlighted by wideout Torrey Smith. But reassembling the 49ers and competing in the NFC West again won’t be a process driven by money thrown at problems.

No, the 49ers will either crumble or climb because of depth. It all starts with one man and one giant question…

Can Chris Borland really, honestly replace Patrick Willis over a full season?

First we need some context for the word “replace” here, because there is no replacing Willis. The aim for Borland and fellow linebacker Michael Wilhoite is to make sure the step down from Willis to them is only a small puddle jump.

Any discussion of truly replacing Willis feels like an insult to the defender he was and the firm inside presence he maintained over eight years. Of those seasons, seven ended in Pro Bowl appearances, and Willis was named a first-team All Pro five times. Willis averaged 118.8 tackles per season, a number skewed somewhat by the health issues that led to his retirement, limiting him to only six games in 2014.

No one was close to Willis among inside linebackers in the category of stopping plays without any help.

Linebacker	Tackles
Patrick Willis	732
Karlos Dansby	689
Paul Posluszny	639
Curtis Lofton	622
London Fletcher	615

But what truly separated Willis from the rest was his diverse game and premier coverage skills.

Linebacker	Passes defensed
Karlos Dansby	56
Patrick Willis	55
London Fletcher	54
Daryl Smith	54
Derrick Johnson	52

Take a moment to absorb those two tables. They tell the tale of a linebacker who excelled in any situation and was trusted as much in coverage as he was when asked to erase running lanes.

The concern with Borland in his effort to permanently take over for Willis isn’t the run-clogging part. When tasked with halting runs, he begins to resemble a certain slobbering cartoon character with an appetite for rabbits (and wild turkey surprise?).

Remarkably and insanely, Borland finished 2014 with 43 run stops, fourth among all inside linebackers, according to Pro Football Focus. He did that while starting just eight games for the injured Willis and being exposed to only 202 run snaps. For perspective, the Falcons’ Paul Worrilow led ILBs with 47 stops, though he needed 424 snaps to get there (again per PFF)

Pro Football Focus has been tracking advanced metrics like run stops and run stop percentage (the percentage of a defender’s snaps that end in a stop) since 2007. Borland is walking and tackling on historic ground…

So no, Borland’s run defense isn’t at all a concern in his effort to replace Willis. I broke down the early film he compiled during the season, and even in late November Borland would have been a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate had he stayed healthy.

Borland certainly isn’t awful when dropping back either after two interceptions and four passes defensed during his rookie season. His greatest flaw when defending the ball in flight? Mostly that he’s not Patrick Willis. That brings the 49ers back to the problem of only one Patrick Willis known to exist in the world’s population.

Borland gave up a reception once every 7.6 snaps when he was in coverage, per PFF, which ranked 54th among all inside linebackers on the field for at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps. However, Wilhoite ranked 21st among the same group in 2014, fueling hope that if Borland is exposed he can take over on passing downs to keep generating turnovers for a defense fresh off a league-leading 23 interceptions.

That’s assuming Wilhoite (who’s a restricted free agent but was given a qualifying offer) is pulled off the trade block, where he was perched a few weeks ago, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee. Moving Wilhoite no longer seems wise after Willis’ retirement, thinning the 49ers’ middle linebacker surplus.

Depth is critical at that position, and there’s plenty of it in San Francisco. During a time of transition, Borland is a luxury draft pick who has ascended quickly.

That will have to be a common theme for these retooled 49ers.

The power of luxury

Prior to 2014, the 49ers had been to the NFC Championship Game three straight years. That recent history is etched deep into the Harbaugh era and lamented whenever his exit is discussed.

Sometimes lost in that conversation: the wealth of draft picks Baalke accumulated while running a team in championship mode.

Baalke had the flexibility to pursue trades, which led to the brief Stevie Johnson experiment. More importantly, he ensured depth charts were overflowing at several positions while collecting players who may not have addressed an immediate need but will hopefully play an important role after some development.

They’re called luxury picks in draft parlance. Baalke used them early and often, selecting a combined 23 players in the 2013 and 2014 drafts.

Player	Position	Drafted	Career starts	Career snaps
Tank Carradine	DT	2013 second round (40th overall)	0	146
Corey Lemonier	DE/OLB	2013 third round (88th overall)	0	449
Marcus Martin	C	2014 third round (70th overall)	8	526
Chris Borland	ILB	2014 third round (77th overall)	8	487
Brandon Thomas	G	2014 third round (100th overall)	0	0
Dontae Johnson	CB	2014 fourth round (129th overall)	3	502
Aaron Lynch	OLB	2014 fifth round (150th overall)	3	521

That’s seven mid-round picks (none later than the fifth round) used on players who have started a combined 21 games.

Baalke’s forward thinking inserted the right pieces for the future. Guard Brandon Thomas, for example, was selected with a third-round compensatory pick in 2014 after he tore his ACL during a predraft workout. Baalke clearly knew Thomas wouldn’t see the field in any capacity until at least 2015.

He also knew Mike Iupati—the 49ers starting guard since 2010 and a core piece of their offensive line—had an expiring contract in 2015, and he’d become far too pricey (Iupati signed a five-year deal with the Arizona Cardinals worth $40 million).

So in comes Thomas then to slide in, replacing Iupati after Dabo Swinney, his college head coach at Clemson, who, according to 49ers.com, called him “by far the best guy we’ve had on the offensive line since I’ve been a head coach.”

Martin will rise too after missing half of 2014 with a knee injury. He struggled during limited playing time while giving up 16 pressures on only 280 passing snaps, per PFF. There’s desperate hope for sophomore growth now, just as there is for cornerback Dontae Johnson, who quickly ascends to a larger role after Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver walked as free agents.

Johnson allowed five touchdowns in coverage during his rookie season along with a passer rating of 106.3, per PFF. But there’s more optimism around his second-year development and hope he can play opposite starter Tramaine Brock instead of recently signed Shareece Wright, who defines replacement level.

Although he improved somewhat in 2014, Wright is only a year removed from giving up the sixth-most yards in coverage out of the 199 cornerbacks who played a single snap.

Year	Yards allowed	Passer rating allowed
2013	976 (194th)	106.1 (150th)
2014	532 (180th)	95.5 (125th)

The most promise and hope may lie with defensive tackle Tank Carradine, who missed his rookie season due to a torn ACL. He’ll now be part of a defensive front that will look to minimize the impact of those cornerback departures.

Carradine was deemed worthy of a second-round pick, and if Smith retires he’ll battle to start at defensive end opposite newly signed Darnell Dockett. The 26-year-old recorded three sacks in 2014 even though he didn’t play a single snap until Week 10.

However, the most important piece of depth for the 2015 49ers wasn’t obtained through luxury. No, running back Carlos Hyde is a necessity.

Power running will once again determine the 49ers’ fate

There’s hope quarterback Colin Kaepernick will reverse his regression, and the addition of Smith will give him a desperately needed deep threat.

There’s hope running back Reggie Bush will provide another weapon in a dual role as an outside runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield. Since Bush entered the league in 2006, only two other running backs have more than his 3,489 career receiving yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

But there’s little concern about the most important depth that has to replace a franchise icon.

When Gore left, the 49ers lost an aging running back (he'll turn 32 in May) but still an imposing downhill runner who’s ideally suited for their power-rushing attack. Gore strung together four straight 1,100-plus yard rushing seasons to end his 49ers tenure.

Now Carlos Hyde inherits the feature back role, and as Bleacher Report analyst Chris Simms observed following the 2014 draft, he’s ideally suited for between-the-tackles running.

Hyde averaged 2.7 yards after contract during his first season, tied for eighth in the league, per PFF. He’s a runaway beer truck, and at his size (6’0” and 235 pounds) he can easily do a Gore imitation.

He’ll have to, because running back is one of many areas where drafted and developed talent needs to rise quickly for the 49ers.

Reinforcements have already arrived, with more coming through this year's draft. But primarily, the 49ers’ future and ongoing transition is coming from within.

That will either be scary or promising, fast.

Sean Tomlinson is an NFL Analyst for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.