Breaking Down EJ Manuel's Potential as Buffalo Bills' Starting QB

In today's NFL, young quarterbacks are afforded little room for error. That applies doubly for first-round draft picks, something that EJ Manuel, the Buffalo Bills' No. 16 selection in 2013, learned the hard way last season when he was benched after Week 4 in favor of veteran Kyle Orton. 

Through 14 professional starts, Manuel was not living up to expectations, and head coach Doug Marrone had seen enough. Orton made the final 12 starts of the year, and Buffalo finished 9-7, shy of a playoff spot.

But a new season is on the horizon. The Bills have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterbacks coach. Manuel will get a fresh chance to prove himself in his third training camp—though Matt Cassel, whom Buffalo acquired from the Minnesota Vikings, will be ready to step in the moment Manuel falters.

After that, there will be no more leash for EJ.

"We have to give [Manuel] a fair enough shake to show his wares in game situations, but he's also got to make that step," Bills general manager Doug Whaley told Marc Sessler of NFL.com. "And this is that third year. And he knows it. He knows that this is the chance where he's got to basically step up or he's probably not going to be a starting quarterback in this league."

As the Bills were searching for their man to replace Marrone this winter, Whaley apparently ensured that whoever he hired would be eager to make Manuel into an NFL quarterback. Per Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News:

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But Whaley apparently thinks Manuel’s struggles ... have had more to do with coaching than the player. Whaley is, according to an NFL source, conveying those thoughts to the candidates that he and the rest of the Bills’ hierarchy have interviewed for the team’s head-coaching vacancy.

The source said that during interviews Whaley not only has spoken in glowing terms about Manuel, he also has made it clear he wants the new coach to make the progress in developing Manuel that Marrone and his staff failed to make.

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Rex Ryan, it seems, fits that bill. Unlike Marrone, he is on the same page as Whaley regarding a host of issues, from the QB situation to last year's decision to sacrifice a first-round pick to draft wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press/Associated Press

As for Cassel, the Bills received him and the Vikings' 2015 sixth-round pick in exchange for one of the Bills' fifth-round picks and a 2016 seventh-rounder, according to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com. He has made 71 career starts but hasn’t started more than 10 games in a season since 2010, with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Since then, he’s thrown 30 touchdowns and 34 interceptions while completing 58.9 percent of his passes. In other words, he's mediocre.

Still, Cassel expects to challenge Manuel for the starting job, as he should.

"I know that EJ’s here, and he’s a young, talented player," Cassel, who initially failed a physical due to a foot injury, told Rodak. "I expect that there’s going to be a competition."

But the Bills' 2015 quarterback competition is ultimately not about Matt Cassel. It's all about Manuel and whether he can make the leap.

What has he learned from the good, bad and ugly of his first 14 NFL starts? How has he responded mentally to being benched last year? What has he done to improve his throwing accuracy? How will he adjust from Nathaniel Hackett's West Coast offense to new coordinator Greg Roman's power-based running scheme?

Manuel's teammates seem to believe he's made strides, at least in the leadership category. Running back C.J. Spiller, who's now a free agent, said on NFL Network recently that Manuel was too "buddy buddy" with teammates, but that he learned from watching Orton (via Josh Alper/ProFootballTalk.com):  

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He learned that you can't be buddy buddy with everybody. You’re the face of the franchise, you’re the quarterback so you have to demand everything ... I think early on he didn’t really understand how to step on guys’ toes. Once Kyle took over, he saw what Kyle did and it helped him.

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Kyle Orton might not seem like your ideal QB mentor, but the point is that Manuel knows more now than he did previously about how to conduct himself in an NFL huddle. 

The question, really, is whether he can throw the darn football.

Between 10 games in 2013 and four in 2014, Manuel has thrown 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, completed 58.6 percent of his passes and posted a QB rating of 78.5.

While it's worth debating whether benching him was the right decision last season, Manuel's final start—Week 4 on the road against the Houston Texans—was especially troubling.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

On the surface, there was this: He went 21-of-44 for 225 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Digging a little deeper, the nature of those incompletions and interceptions offered real cause for concern. Matt Waldman broke it down for FootballOutsiders.com:

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[Manuel] was 0-for-8 on throws to the intermediate range of the field between the hash marks. Only one of these throws appeared to be the fault of a receiver ... The rest were egregiously inaccurate in every direction: too wide of target; too far behind the receiver; and also sailing over the intended man. ...

The first [interception] was a rushed throw to the flat that lacked enough touch when Manuel saw J.J. Watt coming free from the edge. The defensive end didn't have to do more than reach for the flat-trajectory throw for a pick-six. Manuel's second interception ... [was] a ball he sailed over the seam that didn't account for the safety. This is an elementary consideration that Manuel failed to take into account.

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Manuel's pure throwing mechanics and accuracy need to improve. But there are also plenty of reasons to believe he's in a position to succeed. He's now spent multiple years working with talented young receivers Watkins and Robert Woods, who are only getting better. And the Bills have begun to upgrade an offensive line that was disastrous in 2014, which likely contributed to Manuel's tendency to rush in the pocket.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press/Associated Press

Perhaps most importantly, Roman, coming over from the San Francisco 49ers, has a reputation for leaning heavily on his running game while still getting what he needs out of non-elite quarterbacks. He worked with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick when the Niners made three straight playoff appearances from 2011 to 2013.

Observing Roman's offense, Jon Ramsey of BuffaloRumblings.com concluded that the adjustments Manuel would need to make will not be drastic: "The passing game was pretty simple, and to my eyes had similar concepts to the one Hackett ran when EJ Manuel was playing under center. There were more half-field reads than what Hackett used, so it's easy to see that Roman is used to having a quarterback who isn't the strongest in the passing game."

In today's short-leash league, it's also easy to forget that plenty of solid or even great NFL quarterbacks took a while to develop. Peyton Manning threw a rookie-record 28 interceptions. Brett Favre didn't take off until his third season. Tom Brady didn't have a QB rating of over 90 until his fifth year.

And others had the luxury of watching from the sidelines for a couple seasons before being thrust into the limelight. The late Steve McNair, for example, began his career watching Chris Chandler for two years. Aaron Rodgers watched Favre for three years before he became the superstar we know today.

Is EJ Manuel going to become the next Manning or Favre? Absolutely not. But could he become a respectable NFL quarterback on a playoff team? With the right coaching and work ethic, absolutely.

"Guys are judged too harshly too soon—there's a learning curve—and a lot of that is because coaches are being judged so quick," an anonymous NFC quarterbacks coach told NFL.com's Albert Breer after Manuel was benched in 2014. "For coaches, we gotta win now, or it's on to the next guy. With EJ, you'd like to have him work through his issues. But you go 5-11, and the staff gets fired, then yeah, he's better, but he's better for the next staff."

The Bills are certainly in win-now mode, with ownership that's spending aggressively to try to reach the postseason for the first time this century. But they're also giving Manuel another chance, and they're wise to do so.

The Florida State product is only 24 years old. He has less than a full season's worth of games under his belt. He has all the physical tools.

A little patience—that rare thing in the NFL these days—could pay off for Buffalo in 2015.