
Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Top NFL Free Agents
On Tuesday, the NFL's new league year officially begins—and with it comes the start of free agency, where more money is haphazardly spent than at your bachelor party in Las Vegas.
Time will tell what the future has to hold for eight of the biggest free agents on the market. But we're here to dust off that crystal ball and project the future, playboy.
What are the best- and worst-case scenarios for these players? I'm happy you asked, because I believe I have the answers you're seeking.
Will Ndamukong Suh dominate in Miami? Will Randall Cobb win a Super Bowl in Green Bay? And will Mark Sanchez buy cheesesteaks for every single person in Philadelphia?
The answers lie ahead, homie. Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the top NFL free agents.
Ndamukong Suh
1 of 8
Per media reports, Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is set to sign a big-money contract with the Miami Dolphins once free agency opens. How big? Big enough to be in excess of $100 million with $60 million guaranteed. Yeah. That's big.
Best-Case Scenario
(I mean, just read the above paragraph. How is getting $60 million guaranteed to play in a state with no income tax not the best-case scenario? No matter how you slice it, Suh is hitting the jackpot, playboy. Now, on to the actual scenario...)
Suh joins an already stacked defensive line that combines (Voltron-style) to absolutely destroy opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks. As a result of Suh's domination from the interior, defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon enjoy unimpeded charges at enemy passers, causing Dolphins fans to roar with a bloodlust similar to a determined and overanxious shopper on Black Friday.
Thanks to Suh, Miami's defense keeps the team in games, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill makes "the leap" and ascends into the stratosphere of elite signal-callers.
The Dolphins beat the Patriots not once, but twice, including a Week 17 thriller in South Beach, as Tom Brady is hit by Suh and company so many times that he starts immediately falling to the ground upon taking the snap, so as to avoid permanent injury. As a result of the triumph, Miami wins the AFC East, and a three-quarters-full stadium roars with delight.
And all the while, Suh enjoys the brilliant sunshine and all the amenities that South Beach has to offer. Yeah, I'm jealous. So what?
Worst-Case Scenario
Suh plays like the elite defensive lineman he is, but the Dolphins can't get out of their own way. Coach Joe Philbin continues to make inexplicable errors in game management, and the cameras can't help but catch Suh with an incredulous look on his face, as if someone has just told him Charlotte McKinney is dating Justin Bieber.
Tannehill can't quite make "the leap," but the Dolphins find themselves at 8-6 with two games to play—against division rivals Buffalo and New England.
The Bills wipe the floor with the Dolphins, and in a fit of rage, Suh nearly hits LeSean McCoy with the Stone Cold Stunner. He's rumored to be suspended for Week 17's must-win tilt with the Patriots, but is allowed to play—only to see New England obliterate his overmatched team and coach. Philbin looks catatonic on the sideline as time expires, and he's fired the next day. (Wait, I thought this was the worst-case scenario?)
And all the while, Suh enjoys the brilliant sunshine and all the amenities that South beach has to offer. Given that fact, is there even a worst-case scenario for this cat?
Randall Cobb
2 of 8
The Green Bay Packers have officially re-signed wide receiver Randall Cobb to a four-year, $40 million contract with $17 million guaranteed. The deal will keep Cobb in Titletown until age 28.
Best-Case Scenario
Let's face it: Cobb's decision to stay in Green Bay was a brilliant one. He gets to catch passes from the world's best quarterback (Mr. Aaron Rodgers) and gets to test the free-agent market again at age 28. In other words, he's the smartest dude in the room. And yes, I feel dumb by comparison.
Over the next four years, the Packers win the NFC North four times, as the rest of the division can't get out of its own way—the Chicago Bears never figure out a way to ship Jay Cutler out of town, the Lions never recover from losing Ndamukong Suh and the Minnesota Vikings, who can't beat Green Bay, unsuccessfully try twice a year to bring Brett Favre out of retirement. Favre decides he'd rather drive a tractor and hawk jeans and hair-dye products than get pummeled by Clay Matthews. It's the right decision.
During this span, the Packers win no fewer than one Super Bowl, and Cobb emerges as a superduperstar, both the belle of fans and fantasy football enthusiasts alike. His upbeat attitude and incredible skill set turns him into a household name, and he captures a Super Bowl MVP award.
Then, at age 28, he cashes in once again—and decides to finish his career catching passes from the world's best quarterback (still Aaron Rodgers for those keeping score), and is lauded for playing his entire career for one team.
Worst-Case Scenario
One morning during this offseason, Aaron Rodgers will wake up and look at his girlfriend, the gorgeous Olivia Munn. He will decide that he no longer wants to play football and put his body at risk, and decides to hang it up so he can spend as much time with her as possible. And really, could you blame him?
Cobb spends a miserable 2015 attempting to catch passes from an inaccurate Scott Tolzien as the Packers finish in third in the NFC North. Coach Mike McCarthy, still spooked from his play-calling faux pas in this past January's NFC Championship Game, orders offensive coordinator Tom Clements to stop calling passing plays entirely, and Eddie Lacy runs the ball 38 times per game. Unsurprisingly, the plan doesn't work.
By 2019, Cobb's value isn't what it once was, and he signs a contract with the Cleveland Browns. He will be selected in the 14th round of your 2019 fantasy draft.
And all the while, Rodgers will be on a beach with Olivia Munn. How selfish.
Jeremy Maclin
3 of 8
Per media reports, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin will leave the City of Brotherly Love to reunite with old coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. The deal is expected to be worth $11 million annually.
Best-Case Scenario
First off, are you aware of how much awesome Kansas City barbecue one could theoretically purchase with $11 million? Not that I've ever thought about that or anything. Stop looking at me like that.
In Week 1, Maclin catches the first touchdown pass by a Chiefs receiver since the Nixon administration, and immediately endears himself to the Arrowhead faithful. It's revealed that quarterback Alex Smith underwent successful psychotherapy during the offseason, helping him break down the mental walls that are preventing him from throwing the deep pass. After the doctors figure out the problem—Smith was scarred from playing with 7,651 offensive coordinators in seven years in San Francisco—he sheds his mental shackles and begins to throw the ball downfield like a legitimate NFL quarterback.
Thanks to Smith's newfound bravado, Maclin stars in Kansas City. Running back Jamaal Charles continues to dominate, opening up the deep passing game, and Maclin thrives, catching 12 touchdown passes in leading Kansas City to the playoffs. The franchise earns its first postseason victory since 1993 by beating rival Denver and sending Peyton Manning into retirement.
Somewhere, Lin Elliott tips his cap in appreciation.
Worst-Case Scenario
Alex Smith never decides to address his deep-seated issues that prevent him from throwing the ball downfield, and the speedy Maclin is rendered a nonfactor in Kansas City's offense.
However, he continues to enjoy delicious barbecue. Life ain't so bad.
Brian Hoyer
4 of 8
Per media reports, Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer is expected to sign with the Houston Texans, although the New York Jets remain in the mix as well.
Best-Case Scenario
Hoyer eschews the bright lights of New York City and signs with Houston, where he's reunited with coach Bill O'Brien, his former offensive coordinator in New England.
O'Brien, knowing full well that he hasn't yet acquired a legitimate franchise quarterback, tosses all of his acumen into Hoyer and attempts to fashion him into "the guy." Hoyer, a smart dude, revels in the positive atmosphere in H-Town and easily fends off Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage to become the team's starter.
Hoyer develops a rapport with receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and the Texans find themselves in the playoff hunt as the calendar turns to December. But it falls apart down the stretch, as Hoyer begins throwing heinous late-game interceptions that turn his head coach a shade of red only before seen on Tom Coughlin in the 2007 NFC Championship Game.
Yeah, I know this is Hoyer's best-case scenario. What do you want me to say? He ain't that good, playboy.
Worst-Case Scenario
Hoyer eschews the tutelage of O'Brien and instead signs with the New York Jets.
By Week 2, cameras will catch receiver Brandon Marshall cursing to himself after Hoyer throws a ball 15 feet over his head. The crowd will begin to boo.
By Week 4, Hoyer will be criticized by Eric Decker's wife for failing to get her husband the ball, contributing to the failing ratings of the couple's reality-television show. Somewhere, Gisele Bundchen will laugh and light a cigar with a $100 bill and stick pins into a Wes Welker voodoo doll.
By Week 5, Hoyer will cede the job to Marcus Mariota and fade into oblivion.
Mark Sanchez
5 of 8
Per media reports, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez has re-signed with the team on a two-year deal with $5.5 million guaranteed.
Best-Case Scenario
After an entire offseason seemingly geared toward an inevitable draft-day trade for Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, Eagles coach Chip Kelly wakes up on April 30 and decides that he's cool rolling into 2015 with Sanchez and Nick Foles as his signal-callers. The city nearly burns in protest, but Kelly doesn't care what you think, so he's down with the plan, homie.
At the end of the day, Sanchez really wants to be liked. He's like Alex Rodriguez in that respect, minus the pathological lying and steroid needles. So he couches his below-average play by buying fans one cheesesteak for every turnover he commits. As a result, the obesity rate in Philadelphia skyrockets.
The Eagles never truly commit to Sanchez as the starter, but he spends two years smiling on the sidelines, and inevitably reunites with Rex Ryan in Buffalo at the conclusion of his deal in Philly.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Eagles draft Marcus Mariota and name him the Week 1 starter before the first round is complete. Sanchez is relegated to backup status, and never sees the field. There are no hands to shake, babies to kiss or cheesesteaks to buy. People don't get the chance to like Sanchez, as all their positive emotion is spent toward Mariota.
Because of Mariota, Sanchez never gets to play, and is inevitably reunited with Rex Ryan in Buffalo at the conclusion of his deal in Philly.
DeMarco Murray
6 of 8
As of the publication of this column, it's unclear where Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray will play football in 2015 and beyond.
Best-Case Scenario
Murray has a major decision to make: Is it about money or is it about chasing a championship? Should he potentially take less money to sign with the Dallas Cowboys and play behind the best offensive line in football? After all, if you win a championship in Dallas, you become immortal.
But you know what? In this scenario, Murray is smarter than that. In this scenario, he knows that at age 27, he's probably never going to get another opportunity to cash in like this ever again. He needs to take the money and run, homie.
Once the Cowboys lowball him, Murray will set his sights on the highest bidder, and it turns out to be the Jacksonville Jaguars, who desperately need to upgrade over incumbent Toby Gerhart. And replacing Gerhart with Murray would be like dumping your nagging girlfriend for Margot Robbie.
Maybe Murray won't win a title in Jacksonville, but his bank account will be filled with money, playboy. And with no state income tax in Florida, he really cashes in.
So forget about hometown discounts and the pursuit of a championship. Murray takes the money and never looks back.
Worst-Case Scenario
After significant contemplation, Murray decides to take less money to sign with the Cowboys. He's lauded by media types and sportswriters who would almost certainly never take less money to do anything, much less to sign a multiyear contract.
In training camp, a rash of injuries hits the offensive line and the blocking greatly suffers. Quarterback Tony Romo, under constant duress, throws a series of late-game interceptions. Thanks to Romo's foibles, Murray largely escapes blame, but doesn't come close to having the same type of season.
Meanwhile, his paychecks are smaller than they could have been, and he has to listen to constant media speculation about owner Jerry Jones' obsession with Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.
His contract expires without a Super Bowl ring, and Murray finishes his career by signing a small deal with Jacksonville, where he averages 3.2 yards per carry and is released the following offseason.
Oh, what might have been.
Torrey Smith
7 of 8
Per media reports, Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith will leave the team and sign elsewhere—presumably (for the cases of these scenarios) with the San Francisco 49ers.
Best-Case Scenario
Smith, an all-around nice guy and positive influence in the community, fits in perfectly with the "win with class" mantra installed by owner Jed York. He reunites with old battery mate Anquan Boldin, and the two get along swimmingly in San Francisco's locker room.
Smith is able to put his deep speed to use, as he catches laser beams tossed by rifle-armed quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Somehow, head coach Jim Tomsula turns out to not be an utter buffoon, and the 49ers, despite seemingly every defensive star with a pulse retiring in the offseason, are actually a decent squad.
San Francisco is a gorgeous city, and Smith ends up loving it. The 49ers won't contend in 2015, but start to get pretty good in 2016 and beyond. Smith finishes his 49ers career valued somewhere in between John Taylor and Terrell Owens, which really ain't so bad.
Worst-Case Scenario
The 49ers continue their offseason implosion and nearly every player on the roster finds himself in legal trouble, flying directly in the face of the "win with class" mantra installed by owner Jed York. Smith is nonplussed with the situation, but puts on a brave face for the season.
General manager Trent Baalke, emboldened by York in the wake of former coach Jim Harbaugh's dismissal, decides to deal quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Backup Blaine Gabbert is installed as the starter and proceeds to bounce every pass five yards in front of Smith's feet as Tomsula stares blankly from the sideline.
Meanwhile, Harbaugh takes to Twitter and tweaks the 49ers every chance he gets, adding to the organization's misery. Smith finishes his contract in San Francisco having never caught 60 passes in a season and with zero playoff appearances.
But hey, the Golden Gate Bridge is fun to look at, right?
Jerry Hughes
8 of 8
Per media reports, the Buffalo Bills have re-signed defensive end Jerry Hughes to a five-year deal worth $22 million guaranteed.
Best-Case Scenario
Hughes, once thought to be a first-round bust, continues sacking the opposing passer with aplomb. He proves to be a perfect fit in coach Rex Ryan's defense, and joins with fellow end Mario Williams and tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams to form the league's best defensive line. Hughes helps the Bills qualify for the postseason for the first time since the War of 1812.
And after he returns home each day from the team facility, he counts his money and thanks the lucky heavens that he got a big payday after it looked like his career was going the way of JaMarcus Russell.
Worst-Case Scenario
Hughes, once thought to be a first-round bust, proves that notion to be true by failing to build on his stellar two-season run in lovely Western New York. He proves to not be a fit in Ryan's scheme, and his failings affect the rest of the defensive line. The Bills fail to make the playoffs during Hughes' five-year deal, bringing the franchise's tally to somewhere in between 170 and 180 consecutive seasons without a postseason berth.
And after he returns home each day from the team facility, he counts his money and thanks the lucky heavens that he got a big payday after it looked like his career was going the way of JaMarcus Russell.
Nick Kostos is a featured NFL columnist for Bleacher Report and a host for Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM. Follow Nick on Twitter here and become a fan of his on Facebook here.
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