The 6 Most Complicated 2015 NBA Free-Agency Cases

There is no such thing as a summer vacation in the NBA.

From the second the Finals end, personnel moves in the draft and free agency are placed under the microscope as teams across the Association seek to reconfigure their rosters. 

It's crucial to remember a major component of roster construction revolves around the proper appraisal of talent. 

And when it comes to this year's free-agent signing period, there's no shortage of prominent names shrouded in uncertainty. That's particularly true as it pertains to what they can offer potential employers and at what cost.  

Take the Portland Trail Blazers' Wesley Matthews, for example. After rupturing his Achilles Thursday evening against the Dallas Mavericks, his impending status as an unrestricted free agent has become rather complicated.

Not only will the Blazers have to try to evaluate what he's worth based on past performance, but they must also assess the caliber of player he'll be following a debilitating injury. 

So whether it's Matthews in Portland, Rajon Rondo and a wonky schematic fit in Dallas or Kevin Love signing on to play a limited role in Cleveland, some of the league's most high-profile superstars are facing complex and uncertain futures based on an array of moderating variables.

Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors

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Complicating Factor: He's entering max-contract territory 

Free-Agent Type: Restricted

Undersized, positionless players who average 11.4 points and 8.3 rebounds have never been considered max-contract candidates.

Until now.

Draymond Green, the Golden State Warriors Swiss army knife, is in line for a monster payday despite posting seemingly pedestrian counting stats.   

As ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss pointed out in January, that's pretty much unprecedented: 

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We’re talking about a second-round pick who’s shorter than 6-6 in socks, who doesn't jump high, create his own shot or dominate the ball. A rookie max deal for a scrappy 'tweener' averaging the fourth-most points per game on his team? Basketball doesn’t work that way -- yet. This summer will be a good test of whether teams pay big for a guy who does all the 'little things.'

"

But why is Green worth such a sizable monetary commitment? Well, the proof is in the pudding. And in this case, the pudding is some delectable advanced metrics. 

According to NBA.com, Golden State is a whopping plus-13.5 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor, which is second among regular rotational players behind Stephen Curry. 

Green also leads the league in defensive win shares (4.1) while topping the charts with an individual defensive rating of 96.6, per Basketball-Reference.com.

The question that remains is whether Golden State will be willing to shell out max dollars to retain Green's incredibly valuable services.

According to the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami, it is. However, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported last month that Green has "significant interest with pursuing an offer sheet with his hometown Detroit Pistons," which could make for an interesting bidding war. 

It helps that Golden State will retain the right to match any incoming offers for the restricted free agent, but his skyrocketing price tag may well complicate matters when the signing period gets underway.

One way to clear the necessary space for Green's deal would be to deal David Lee, who's on the books for one more year at $15.5 million. And considering the Warriors pursued a Lee trade with the Utah Jazz at the February deadline, per 1280 The Zone's Spencer Checketts, creating financial wiggle room will be possible should suitors come calling for his marginalized skill set. 

DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers

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Complicating Factor: Los Angeles' cap situation

Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted 

DeAndre Jordan lives for contract-year explosions.

After securing a four-year, $43 million deal from the Los Angeles Clippers following a revelatory 2010-11 campaign, Jordan is primed to enter max-contract territory once his deal expires at season's end. 

And you can bank on this deal blowing the last one out of the water. 

To recap, Jordan is averaging career highs in scoring (11.1 points), rebounding (14.5 boards) and player efficiency rating (20.8), per Basketball-Reference.com. Living within a foot of the basket, Jordan is also shooting a league-high 71.3 percent from the field. 

"He’s been unreal all year, honestly," Jamal Crawford said, according to Bleacher Report's Josh Martin. "I think more people noticed it now because obviously those numbers are monstrous, but the fact that Blake’s out, people notice a little bit more. DJ’s been the one constant all year for us."

Since Jan. 1, Jordan has been a one-man interior wrecking crew. In that span, he's averaging 13.2 points, 15.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. He also ranks No. 1 in 20-point, 20-rebound games this season with three. No other player has more than one. 

However, as has been made abundantly clear based on L.A.'s underwhelming moves all season long, the Clippers are strapped for cap space. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin signed to max deals and J.J. Redick and Spencer Hawes both inked through 2016-17, the team's financial flexibility has been capped quite a bit. 

Fortunately, they can clear some room if they decide against retaining Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes since the final year of both deals is non-guaranteed for next season. 

But even if the Clippers opt to keep Barnes and Crawford, owner Steve Ballmer may be in the mood to splurge for Jordan, according to the Los Angeles Times' Ben Bolch: 

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Ballmer has intimated he would make whatever financial commitment was necessary to preserve the core of his team.

'I want the Clippers to be better than they've ever been and better than anybody else has ever been,' Ballmer said, the excitement rising in his voice during an interview with The Times this summer after he purchased the team for a record $2 billion.

'What that means explicitly, it's not simple, of course, because of the NBA, the cap, the this, the that. I mean, I know they exist, but it's kind of a labyrinth that you have to know how to navigate and Doc and his staff do.… We want to be the best we can be and I'm going to support Doc to go do that.'

"

If Ballmer is willing to dip into the luxury tax, bringing Jordan back is a no-brainer. He's emerged as an All-Star-caliber center who can dominate on both ends of the floor without eating up possessions.

A low-usage, high-efficiency contributor, he should be viewed as one of the biggest prizes on the open market this summer.  

Robin Lopez, C, Portland Trail Blazers

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Complicating Factor: Portland has several mouths to feed

Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted 

If one team should be watched closely in free agency this summer, it's the Portland Trail Blazers. Their decisions have the potential to send shock waves through the NBA, and one reason why is the unrestricted status of center Robin Lopez. 

While the Blazers are staring at a guaranteed total of just over $23 million for next season, they have several mouths to feed and a plethora of pockets to line. 

Their first priority will be inking LaMarcus Aldridge to a max deal—a move that's appeared likely dating back to last summer, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. 

Then, Wesley Matthews and his torn Achilles (more on that later) will deserve serious consideration as it pertains to a long-term commitment.

Damian Lillard will also be eligible for a contract extension, which could wind up being insanely costly if it reaches maximum thresholds, according to SB Nation's Tom Ziller: 

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Just consider what a potential max deal would look like for Lillard, though. Under labor rules, the maximum salary for a player with fewer than six years of service is 25 percent of the cap. Lillard's deal would go into effect until 2016-17. If the cap reaches a stunning $90 million -- as smart folks have suggested it might -- that would mean a starting salary of $22.5 million, and a four-year deal worth roughly $100 million. That's a massive investment. Lillard's wonderful, and worth it in the long run. But it has to make Portland pause.

"

Now, the cap spike in 2016 could make long-term deals easier to swallow. But at a certain point it's irresponsible to tie up all future flexibility in a handful of marquee deals. 

That means tough decisions lie ahead. 

Since Aldridge and Lillard are franchise cornerstones, there's no debating the merits of their extensions.

In that case, Portland may be pressed to choose between Matthews and Lopez. 

On one hand, Matthews is arguably the league's most polished three-and-D threat. He also ranks in the 84th percentile as a post-up scorer, per NBA.com.  

But Lopez is a defensive stalwart of the highest caliber. When he's on the floor, Portland's defense operates as the league's second-best unit. Opponents also shoot worse than 48 percent at the rim when defended by the bushy-topped big.  

Given the scarcity of steady interior presences who also help offenses flow with beautiful, robust screens, it may behoove Portland to make the less flashy move and re-sign Lopez. 

Wesley Matthews, SG, Portland Trail Blazers

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Complicating Factor: Season-ending Achilles tear

Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted

And if Portland opts for Lopez, Wesley Matthews could be a cap casualty. 

Sadly, Matthews' season is over after suffering an Achilles tear Thursday night against the Dallas Mavericks. According to USA Today's Sam Amick, the Trail Blazers swingman will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair the busted tendon. 

Not only does Matthews' injury complicate Portland's title push, but it also throws a wrench into the team's plan of attack in free agency. 

The 28-year-old is an elite sharpshooter, having drilled 173 triples one year removed from canning 201. That sort of volume puts him in the same company as Kyle Korver, Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry.

But make no mistake: Matthews is hardly limited to operating beyond the three-point line. As his NBA.com short chart indicates, he started to make a living down on the blocks, as he regularly posted up smaller defenders with his 6'5'', 220-pound frame.   

What's scary is how this sort of injury can impact future production, as CBS Sports' Chris Towers explained:

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All in all, players who returned from a ruptured Achilles didn't see a huge dropoff in their rate stats in their first season back, surprisingly. On the whole, these players' usage, rebound and assists rates generally stayed constant. However, their efficiency took a hit, as the collective dropped from 45.9 percent shooting to 40.9 on average. That could be the result of players settling for more 3-pointers as they tried to get their legs under them, as the average 3-point rate rose 21 percent.

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Entering the summer, the Blazers will face a terribly difficult decision: Should they pay Matthews a hefty sum based on past performance, or will they try to bargain his price down—projecting a decline in future production?

There's undoubtedly a happy middle ground somewhere in there, especially since Matthews has been an integral piece of the Blazers' rapid ascent.

However, Portland has to be wary of signing big checks here, particularly with the healthier LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez all commanding major financial commitments in the months ahead.

Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers

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Complicating Factor: Does he want to keep playing second (and third) fiddle? 

Free-Agent Type: Player option

To be blunt, Kevin Love's transition to life as a third wheel with the Cleveland Cavaliers hasn't exactly been seamless. 

His averages are down across the board, with a staggering (yet somewhat expected) nine-point hit coming in the scoring column. 

Love also isn't exactly fond of being pigeon-holed as a role-playing three-point marksman, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes:  

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I heard some people calling me that but I know I'm not a stretch-four. I'm a post player who can shoot. Right now I'm just doing what I'm called to do. For good, bad or indifferent, I'm playing my role and doing what's asked of me. Tonight, I stayed out on the perimeter.

"

Since Love has been enlisted primarily as a floor-spacer to open up driving lanes for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, a career-high 40.3 percent of his total shots have come from beyond the arc. That's up nearly 5 percent over last season.

So as far as Love is letting on, the ancillary scoring responsibilities aren't exactly his favorite. That makes sense after he parlayed a featured role into three All-Star appearances with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

However, it's not like Love can't co-exist with his fellow superstars. When the three share the floor, Cleveland's net rating is better than plus-13 points per 100 possessions.

That's frighteningly good.

But the synergy may not be enough to keep him in town beyond this season, as the Akron Beacon Journal's Jason Lloyd wrote: 

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Love is unlikely to sign long term this summer because of the salary cap. He is expected to opt out of his current contract at the end of the season for cap purposes, but he might only sign a one-year deal to line up for what is expected to be a significant cap spike in the summer of 2016.

Love has said all the right things about re-signing with the Cavs this summer and the Cavs continue to insist he’s here long term. Executives around the league, however, continue to believe Love could leave Cleveland at the end of the season. We’ll see. There is still a long way to go.

"

If Love is patient enough to wait for the incoming cap spike in 2016, he could be compensated handsomely.

Unfortunately, each passing day playing in a diminished role could sink his value a touch on the open market. If Love's returns continue to decrease in concert with smaller responsibilities, negotiation leverage may be harder to come by. 

Rajon Rondo, PG, Dallas Mavericks

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Complicating Factor: He's not a schematic fit 

Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted

Rajon Rondo's 30-game stint with the Dallas Mavericks has yet to produce the prosperous results promised upon his arrival. 

That's because he hasn't been able to carve out a niche in an offense predicated on facilitating open looks with quick ball movement and brilliant floor spacing.

ESPN Insider's Amin Elhassan explains: 

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Rondo's strength lies in his ability to create shots for everyone, something that runs contrary to what Dallas' offense is about (system creating shots). As a scorer, he's a liability as a poor perimeter shooter, and his historically bad free throw shooting (at 31 percent, he's officially the worst free throw shooter in the NBA not named Joey Dorsey) has made him a tentative driver to the basket, as he has become wary of drawing fouls and getting to the line (career low FTA rate of 0.091).

"

With Rondo on the floor, the Mavericks offense has actually been 1.2 points worse per 100 possessions. The defense hasn't been better either, posting identical efficiency ratings with him on the floor and the bench.

Although Rondo is still a top-flight facilitator, he's evidently not an ideal fit in a system that frowns upon ball-dominant players without reliable pull-up jump shots.  

That presents a short-term conundrum for Dallas, but it will be able to cut ties with the 29-year-old floor general at season's end.

Should Rondo hit the open market, a bevy of big-market, point guard-needy franchises (read: Los Angeles, New York and Houston) could serve as attractive destinations for his enigmatic services. 

All statistics current as of March 7 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise. All salary information retrieved from BasketballInsiders.com.