Jaguars Facing Most Important Offseason of David Caldwell, Gus Bradley Era

Fair or not, when looking at any kind of long-term learning or rebuilding process, eventually the time comes when we need to see some results. They undeniably were handed one of the worst rosters in the NFL, but for general manager David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley, the clock is ticking.

The good news for the Jacksonville Jaguars is that their focus on analytics and undervalued free agents, while not flawless, has netted them plenty of hits. The bad news is that when it comes to their top-of-the-draft picks, well, we've yet to see much of anything.

Tackle Luke Joeckel may not be a bust, but he's certainly played like one in the years where he's supposed to be a low-cost asset for the Jaguars. Quarterback Blake Bortles was forced on to the field early, and after pulling some magical throws out of his butt, began to regress to the point where he was one of the four worst quarterbacks by DYAR in the history of Football Outsiders' metrics.

Barring a draft-day stunner where the Jaguars select quarterback Marcus Mariota, they're committed to those two for another season. This is a major problem for Caldwell and Bradley, because if they want to show progress, they are relying heavily on two young players without any of it so far. 

	Blake Bortles		Luke Joeckel
Draft Pick	2014-1-3	Draft Pick	2013-1-2
DYAR	-955	PFF Grade (13-14)	-23.5
DVOA	-40.6%	QB Hurries (13-14)	40

Fortunately for them, Jacksonville's game plan over the last two seasons has opened up a ton of disposable income. 

If you have been following free agency at all, you're likely familiar with the idea that the Jaguars come into free agency with what Over The Cap projects as $68 million in cap space. What you might not know is that Jacksonville could generate even more of it, if necessary. 

Player	Cap Savings	Dead Money
Paul Posluszny	$7.5 million	$2 million
Marcedes Lewis	$6.8 million	$1.4 million
Chris Clemons	$4.75 million	$0
Red Bryant	$4.5 million	$0
Ziggy Hood	$3.575 million	$400,000
Roy Miller	$3.35 million	$500,000
Chad Henne	$3.5 million	$0
Toby Gerhart	$3 million	$0
Totals	$36.975 million	$4.3 million

Jacksonville's contract structures on its bargain free agents don't only lead to nice finds, they also lead to a lot of cap flexibility. It's better to think of Jacksonville's roster as a liquid stream of cap space that can be bent at will to find the pieces they need, while Caldwell has just pushed the controller right and clicked on "defend" for the past two years. 

So, look, every general manager and head coach hit a time in the NFL where results matter more than the process. I don't know that the Jaguars are there yet—they seem pretty patient with the process in general. But, if they are ready to head into "save our skin" mode, there are terrific fits out there for them and the money isn't a problem. 

This is the pool of free agents I would focus on if I were trying to save my job: 

Player	PFF Grade	Replacing	PFF Grade	Projected Contract via Spotrac
Randall Cobb	+12.3	Cecil Shorts	-8.2	Five years, $49 million, $15 mil gtd
Julius Thomas	+5.4	Clay Harbor	-4.1	Five years, $40 million, $15 mil gtd
Bryan Bulaga	+11.9	Austin Pastzor	-7.8
Greg Hardy	+25.6 (2013)	Chris Clemons	-18.1
Ndamukong Suh	+27.5	Tyson Alualu	-11.6	Six years, $103 million, $56 mil gtd
Devin McCourty	+11.6	Josh Evans	-18.1	Five years, $41 million, $19.7 mil gtd

The Jaguars may need to overpay them all to get them to Jacksonville, but that's actually not a problem. In fact, with how much cap space the Jaguars have, I could see some creative structuring in the style of Jay Cutler's deal with the Bears, where most of the cap hits go up front.

These are the six players who I think offer the most cost-to-benefit value for the Jaguars.

Randall Cobb is a good enough receiver to push the second-year players down into roles more respective for their current talents. Julius Thomas would replace the oft-injured Marcedes Lewis and immediately give Bortles an underneath target with margin for error. Bryan Bulaga is the best tackle in free agency, and the Jaguars right tackle situation was beyond abysmal last season. 

Jacksonville has been trying to run Seattle's defense without Earl Thomas (or honestly, even a competent free safety) for two seasons. Plug in Devin McCourty, the rangiest safety outside of Thomas, and things may run a bit more smoothly. Ndamukong Suh and Greg Hardy would immediately give the pass rush a one-two combo on par with what you'd see from the best pass rushes in the league. (And feel free to sub in Jerry Hughes for Hardy if you want a safer player without off-field concerns, I just think Hardy is a better player.)

The Jaguars can do all these things and not even make the playoffs. Such is the problem with being married to a young quarterback with nowhere to go but up.

But in a weak division, with what looks to be a fairly generous schedule against the NFC South and AFC East, that lineup could do a lot of damage even with a bad quarterback situation. Think something along the lines of what the Chiefs have done with Alex Smith, except with better receiving targets.

And if Bortles and Joeckel actually play up to their draft position, it becomes gravy. Because either way, with that kind of team, it'd be hard to not improve. Even if they come away with three of these six players, they should feel great about how much they've improved. And with this much cap space, there's no reason for them not to. 

The only question is: what kind of pressure are Caldwell and Bradley feeling to actually improve the team?

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.