Can the Dallas Mavericks Regain Offensive Brilliance in Time for NBA Playoffs?
Following a game in which the Portland Trail Blazers saw Wesley Matthews leave with a torn left Achilles tendon, it's the Dallas Mavericks who are left lamenting an even bigger loss with the NBA playoffs fast-approaching—that of their once-brilliant offense.
Not to say Thursday night's 94-75 loss to Portland fleeced them of their offensive swagger. It's been gone for a while. This performance just didn't lend any hope to the belief they can regroup before it's too late.
The Mavericks came out flat and stayed flat, shooting 37.5 percent from the field without establishing any sort of momentum. They struggled to reach the rim, froze up in the paint and were only efficient when it came to knocking down mid-range jumpers.
Go figure.
Amar'e Stoudemire was the closest thing Dallas had to a reliable scorer, and he put up just 12 points. Dirk Nowitzki struggled to even find the rim on his three-pointers, finishing 0-of-4 from deep and 5-of-13 overall.
Monta Ellis was worse. Most of his drives were cut off prematurely, and on the rare occasion he reached the rim, one of Robin Lopez, LaMarcus Aldridge or Chris Kaman was waiting. It took him 20 shots to tally 12 points.
The end result was a season-low 75 points. The Mavericks' previous season low was...87.
But this isn't just about their loss to the Blazers. Heck, this isn't even about their last 10 games, through which they have topped 100 points just twice.
This is about the big picture, and how much it's changed.
Visions of having the best offense ever are gone. Every offensive set is now a rescue mission, and the Mavericks are searching for themselves, for the identity they lost right after the Rajon Rondo trade.
Yes, it still comes back to that deal. The Mavericks were offensive giants at the time.
They are not anymore:
| Pre-Rondo Trade | 113.6 | 1 | 8.5 | 2 | 48.1 | 35.4 | 53.2 |
| Post-Rondo Trade | 103.5 | 12 | 2.9 | 10 | 44.9 | 35.3 | 50.3 |
It's no surprise this dip in production coincides with Rondo's arrival, nor is it shocking the Mavericks are actually pumping in more points per 100 possessions with him off the floor. He's simply not equipped to play within the free-flowing offense they're trying to run.
ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan expands:
"Rondo's strength lies in his ability to create shots for everyone, something that runs contrary to what Dallas' offense is about (system creating shots). As a scorer, he's a liability as a poor perimeter shooter, and his historically bad free throw shooting (at 31 percent, he's officially the worst free throw shooter in the NBA not named Joey Dorsey) has made him a tentative driver to the basket, as he has become wary of drawing fouls and getting to the line (career low FTA rate of 0.091).
So if you combine the fact that the system does exploit strengths and magnifies his weaknesses, it becomes apparent that more than a conflict of personalities between coach and player is here. What we are witnessing is the basketball equivalent of mashing a square peg into a round hole—these two just don't fit.
"
Rondo's inability to work off the rock hurts the Mavericks more than anything. They can work around ball-dominant preferences, varying the number of touches between Chandler Parsons, Ellis and Nowitzki, but doing so doesn't just marginalize Rondo—it removes him from the scheme altogether.
Opposing teams don't need to worry about defending him if he's not brandishing the ball. He's shooting under 32 percent outside eight feet this season, and his accuracy off the catch is only slightly better (34.7 percent). This, in turn, makes the entire team easier to defend.
That's what makes the Mavericks' present offensive state so unsettling: There is no easy fix.
Adding Stoudemire has done nothing to jump-start production. Parsons' return from an ankle injury won't cure what ails them, either. He's an extra weapon, but talent isn't the issue now, even without him.
Fit is, and it won't just go away.
For real change to take effect, the Mavericks would need to manipulate their play style so it caters to more of Rondo's strengths. They've already made some visible tweaks—like displacing Ellis from primary ball-handling duties—but not enough. They're also struggling with the minor adjustments they've made.
“We put some new stuff in,” Nowitzki said, per ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. “We need to get used to that and be efficient with it, play around with some stuff and find ways to be a good offensive team.”
To be sure, the Mavericks don't need to enter panic mode. They're still going to the playoffs. They have a 1.5-game hold on sixth place with 19 to go, meaning they're not in line for a first-round matchup with the Golden State Warriors or Memphis Grizzlies.
Acquiring Rondo has also worked wonders for their defense. They ranked 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions before the trade and check in at ninth since then.
"I've been trying to preach defense and get on the same page defensively as a team and just string continuous stops together," Rondo said, via MacMahon. "Not just trading baskets, getting two or three stops in a row."
When the playoffs begin and the pace inevitably slows down, this defensive mindset Rondo is imparting will be useful. The Mavericks couldn't win games on the defensive end before. They can now.
But in terms of regaining previous offensive potency, the odds aren't good. This is the dynamic they're left to work with, and there's little about it they can change without completely tailoring the system to Rondo himself—though Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey suggests one potential shift:
Beyond moving Rondo to the second unit, the Mavericks better settle in and embrace their new defensive identity.
That offensive juggernaut from before is gone.
And, in all likelihood, it isn't coming back.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games for March 6.
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