Breaking Down the NBA's Insanely Competitive MVP Race

The MVP race is heating up, with five candidates surging in a remarkably close battle for the NBA's ultimate individual award. 

Stephen Curry and James Harden have been in the thick of things all season long, and they haven't slowed down in recent weeks, instead maintaining their offensive dominance while playing for highly competitive teams that occupy the league's tougher half. But now they're joined by a trio of legitimate candidates, all of whom could end up taking home the honor. 

Returning from his sprained shoulder with a vengeance, Anthony Davis basically announced that he wasn't done gunning for the title with his 39 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, three steals and eight blocks on Wednesday night against the Detroit Pistons. Russell Westbrook may actually have topped him a few hours later with a career-high 49 points and his fourth consecutive triple-double, proving that his historic February isn't about to go up in smoke. 

And we can't forget about four-time winner LeBron James, who helped engineer a remarkable midseason turnaround for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

But how do they all stack up? Can we make any sense of this five-horse race, especially when the entire quintet figures to be heavily featured in the MVP competition for years to come? 

Let's begin with some simple per-game stats that you can find in your everyday box score or standings:

Those lines are all uniquely insane, whether it's Davis' ridiculous combination of every stat imaginable or Westbrook's constant flirtations with triple-doubles. Harden does lose some of his luster here, as he's fallen out of the lead in the competitive scoring race, but he makes up ground by remaining near the top of every category and pacing the non-Davis candidates in blocks. 

Now, let's move on to some of the one-number-fits-all advanced metrics we have at our disposal: 

Davis rather easily has the league's best player efficiency rating, and he's still within striking distance of Wilt Chamberlain's all-time record (31.82). Posting a PER on the right side of 30 is a legendary feat, and he's nearly guaranteed to do that this season, while only Westbrook has a legitimate shot at moving up into that same realm. 

But the rest of the metrics paint a different story. Harden has earned the most win shares this year (partially by virtue of staying healthier than everyone else), while Curry has compiled the most per 48 minutes. And in terms of box plus/minus (BPM) and value over replacement player (VORP), it's the guards who rise to the top. 

Now, let's use my FATS projections (based on historical similarities and explained in full here). They can show how a team plays—prorated to a full 82-game season—with and without a player, which allows us to look at two main factors. 

First, take a peek at which teams are most dangerous with their star players. Commonly, the award goes to the best player on the best team, and this is a more accurate way of looking at that than simply examining a squad's overall record. Second, look at the disparity between each team's performance with and without the player. That's often more telling than anything else. 

Curry and the Golden State Warriors have been the best star-team combination, and it's not even that close. James and the Cavs are 3.5 games back, after all. 

But in terms of the on/off disparity, it's James and Davis who surge to the front of the pack. They've both carried their squads rather significantly throughout the entire season. 

Finally, here's a cursory look at the five candidates' statistical standings, based on everything we've gone over thus far (excluding team wins, since that's been covered in the FATS section in more accurate fashion). Whoever has the lowest total rank is in the best position: 

Now, it's important to note that all of these categories are weighted evenly, which isn't the case in reality. Chances are, blocks per game aren't going to count the same as VORP, for example. 

Additionally, the narrative element that's always so important in MVP voting is being completely ignored. It's crucial that Westbrook carried his team without Kevin Durant in the lineup, turning the Thunder from lottery fodder into a dangerous playoff squad. Conversely, it will be problematic for Davis that Tyreke Evans did some heavy lifting and kept the New Orleans Pelicans in the postseason hunt while the team's superstar was letting his shoulder heal.

Until the media casts their end-of-season votes, it's up to you to decide which player should hold up a trophy at the end of the season. But this five-horse race is still too close to call.

Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into March 5 games.