Weighing the Pros and Cons of San Francisco 49ers' Top Free-Agent Targets
The San Francisco 49ers have to shop consignment this offseason. They need to shop for bargains.
Counting only the top 51 players on the roster, the 49ers have $5.2 million in cap space, according to Spotrac. That’s enough to sign draft picks and not much else.
The 49ers probably will cut veteran outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks, although cutting him before June 1 would create only $1.5 million in cap space, according to Niners Nation. If the Niners wait and cut Brooks after June 1, they would create $4.7 million in cap space, so they’ll probably cut him after June 1. By then, most of the good free agents will already have signed contracts.
Once free agency begins, the 49ers can cut veteran wide receiver Stevie Johnson and create $6 million in cap space. That’s enough to sign one good player or a few bargains.
The 49ers have too many needs to sign only one impact player. They need several. Here are five players the Niners probably will consider.
DT Darnell Dockett, Arizona Cardinals
1 of 5
Pros: Better than Ray McDonald
The 49ers must replace Ray McDonald.
Before the Niners released McDonald in December, they were paying him an average salary of $4 million, according to Spotrac, more than Mike Iupati or Alex Boone. McDonald was a cornerstone player, the second-best defensive linemen on the Niners next to Justin Smith.
Darnell Dockett is better than McDonald.
Ray McDonald is a run-stuffer, a great player on 1st-and-10. He’s not a great pass-rusher. When the opposing offense passes, like on third down, an offensive linemen often ties up McDonald at the line of scrimmage. It’s a bad look.
Dockett is one heck of a pass-rusher. He is quick for a defensive tackle, quicker than the guards he rushes against. He would significantly improve the 49ers’ four-man pass rush.
Cons: Durability and age
Dockett tore his ACL last August and missed the whole season.
And Dockett turns 34 on May 27. He is only two years younger than Justin Smith.
Final verdict
Dockett probably will sign with the 49ers or Cardinals, according to NFL.com. The Cardinals offered Dockett a one-year, $2.5-million deal, according to Pro Football Talk.
If Ray McDonald is worth $4 million to the 49ers, so is Dockett. The 49ers should outbid the Cardinals and sign Dockett.
RB C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
2 of 5
Pros: Speed
The 49ers may have the slowest offense in the NFL. If the Niners sign C.J. Spiller, he would make it a whole lot faster. Spiller ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at the NFL combine in 2010. He would be the fastest player on the 49ers.
And he’s not just a fast guy. He’s a good running back. He averaged five yard per carry on the Bills even though he ran behind a subpar offensive line.
Cons: Durability and 'fumble-itis'
Look at Spiller’s legs. Look at his ankles. They’re thin. Running backs with thin legs don’t hold up long in the NFL.
Spiller may be breaking down already. In 2012, he rushed for 1,244 yards and averaged six yards per carry. In 2013, he rushed for 933 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. And last season, he missed seven games with an ankle injury, rushed for a measly 300 yards and averaged just 3.8 yards per carry.
Spiller touched the ball 97 times last season and he fumbled three times—once every 32 touches. He has fumbled 17 times in his career.
Fumble-itis is the psychological effect of having butterfingers. Once a running back starts fumbling, he develops full-blown butterfingers, which leads to fumble-itis. Then the running back gets into his own head, and then he gets benched.
Spiller has a case of full-blown fumble-itis.
Final verdict
Maybe Spiller will have a bounce-back season in 2015, or maybe his legs are starting to go. Maybe he’ll get hurt again. Maybe he will fumble his way to the bench.
Some team will pay Spiller many millions to find out. Spiller is one of the most sought-after running backs on the free-agent market.
The 49ers should pass on him.
RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
3 of 5
Pros: Size and speed
The 49ers have a big running back and a small running back. Now they need a medium-sized back.
The big back is Carlos Hyde (6’0”, 235 lbs). The small back is Kendall Hunter (5’7”, 199 lbs). The mid-sized back used to be Frank Gore (5’9”, 217 lbs), but he probably isn’t coming back. He’s a better fit for another team.
The 49ers recently signed National Rugby League star Jarryd Hayne (6’2”, 220 lbs). He would qualify as a mid-sized back if he were a running back, but he never has played football. He will be on the 49ers’ practice squad if he makes the team.
Ryan Mathews (6’0”, 220 pounds) qualifies as a mid-sized back. And he’s way faster than Gore. If they were racing and Mathews had to run backward, he might still win. Mathews ran a 4.37 at the combine in 2010. Gore ran a 4.58 at the University of Miami’s pro day in 2005.
Cons: Durability and butterfingers
Mathews played only eight games and rushed for just 330 yards last season. He has been in the league five seasons—80 games—and has missed 18, almost one-in-five. He has injured his foot, ankle, calf, knee, hamstring, groin, elbow and clavicle, and he’s also had a concussion. I might have missed something.
When Mathews has been healthy, he has carried or caught the ball 1,069 times, and he has fumbled 15 times—about once every 71 touches.
But he has fumbled just three times the past three seasons. It’s possible he merely has butterfingers, not full-blown fumble-itis.
Final verdict
Mathews has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in his career, which is good. And he hasn’t yet turned 28. Despite his history of getting injured and fumbling, some team probably will pay him starter’s money next season—$3 million or $4 million. The 49ers already have a starting running back—Hyde. The Niners shouldn’t sign Mathews.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
RB Roy Helu, Washington Redskins
4 of 5
Pros: Size, speed and hands
Roy Helu also is a medium-sized back (5’11”, 219 lbs), and he’s fast (4.40 40-yard dash), almost as big and fast as Mathews.
What differentiates them is their hands. Mathews’ are medium-sized—9.25 inches. Helu’s are gigantic—10.25 inches. That’s a big reason Helu is a better receiver than Mathews. Helu caught 42 passes for 477 receiving yards and averaged 11.4 yards per catch, better than any other running back in the NFL last season.
Cons: Turf toe and butterfingers
Helu missed 13 games in 2012 and two games in 2014 with turf toe. Turf toe could be a chronic problem for him.
Butterfingers could be a bigger problem, if indeed he has butterfingers—we don’t have enough evidence to say for sure. Helu has touched the ball only 384 times in his four-season career, but he has fumbled six times—once every 64 touches.
Maybe that is a fluke. Helu has huge hands. He should be able to hold onto the ball.
Final verdict
Helu has fresh legs for a four-year veteran—he carried the ball just 102 times the past two seasons. The Redskins curiously underused him. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2013 and 2014.
Helu never has been a starter in the NFL. The 49ers should be able to sign him for about $1 million.
He’s worth it.
WR Ted Ginn, Arizona Cardinals
5 of 5
Pros: Speed receiver who can return punts and kicks
The fastest receiver on the 49ers is Bruce Ellington, who runs a 4.45 40-yard dash. That’s fast, but not that fast for a wide receiver.
The Niners need a deep threat, someone who can outrun cornerbacks straight down the sideline. Ted Ginn can do that. It’s about the only thing he can do on offense.
He used to be a great kick returner, but he averaged just 19 yards per kick return last season—the worst average of his career. Ellington, the 49ers’ kick returner, averaged 25.6 yards per kick return last season.
Cons: Age
Ginn turns 30 on April 12. He’s a high-hurdler who never learned the finer points of playing wide receiver. He is a bad route-runner and he has bad hands. He won’t improve those areas of his game all of a sudden now that he’s 30. He is who he is.
There are plenty of wide receivers in the upcoming draft as fast as Ginn, and about 10 years younger.
Final verdict
The 49ers reportedly will meet with Ginn on Wednesday. When they do, they shouldn’t offer him more than the veteran minimum. Better yet, they should flee from him.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
