The Most Statistically Clutch NBA Player at Every Position
Debates that aim to identify the NBA's most clutch players continue to rage on.
We're here to end them—for this season at least.
Clutch is a word with many meanings. It can indicate having an exceptionally strong hold on something or someone. It's a device, most often associated with automobiles, that engages and disengages the power transmission. In slang terms, it refers to capturing someone's attention or tensing up under pressure-packed circumstances, per Dictionary.com.
A source (read: my girlfriend) also tells me it's a handheld purse.
In the NBA, though, clutch is a quality, something you are or aren't. Really, it's an explanation of how a player fares when the outcome of a game remains in doubt.
From this point forward, "clutch situations" will refer to the last two minutes of games in which no team is ahead or behind by more than five points. Using these criteria, we're going to rank the most clutch players at each position objectively. This is to say, statistically.
To do this, we turn to "clutch rating," a crunch-time metric Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal devised and is so chivalrously allowing us to borrow. Here's his description of the process by which we compute it:
"Calculate points produced per shot, which you can do by multiplying assists by two, adding points, subtracting turnovers and then dividing that result by field-goal attempts. Unfortunately, there is an inherent flaw—assists leading to three-pointers and passes leading to free-throw attempts don't get extra credit.
Multiply points produced per shot by PIE, which is an estimate of a player's involvement in the relevant game events. You can read a full description here.
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Players will have to qualify for consideration since we want to create a competitive sample size. Candidates must rank in the top 100 of clutch minutes as of March 2 and have more than 15 shot attempts to their name.
After narrowing the field to 49 players, it's just a matter of ranking our participants by clutch rating and singling out the best marks at each position. These designations depend on where players start games.
Tim Duncan, for example, spends most of his time at the 5, but he typically begins contests at the 4. That makes him a power forward by craft.
Remember, subjectivity has no place here. These players are not the result of throwing darts at a spreadsheet or consulting cranky, AARP-card-carrying basketball writers. They are here because the numbers say they must be here.
Check all hostility at the door and just enjoy the results.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Clutch Rating: 60.38
Overall Rank (out of 49): 5
Yes, Jeff Teague. The floor general for the NBA's best team.
Sixteen total point guards are on this list. That's 32 percent of all participants, which, honestly, isn't surprising. Point guards have the ball in their hands by design, so it's natural they see adequate burn when it matters most.
When it comes to this seemingly endless pool of positional competition, Teague's clutch rating isn't just the best. It towers over everyone else:
Teague's crunch-time success is not the result of all-world scoring. His 19 total shot attempts barely reach the minimum requirement, and they rank 17th among all point guards with at least 16 under their belt.
Playmaking is the vessel through which Teague travels to get here. He's assisting on 45.5 percent of Atlanta's baskets in the clutch. Of every point guard with 20 or more crunch-time appearances, only John Wall registers a higher mark (52).
(Brief aside: Jarrett Jack means business late in games. Apparently.)
Precision carries Teague even further. His assist-to-turnover ratio is a ridiculous 3.33 in these situations, which ranks first among all point men and second as compared to all other guards. For further perspective, consider that only three offensive pilots (minimum 35 appearances) top that proportion, inside or outside crunch time.
Atlanta's spacing-friendly lineups afford Teague frequently unimpeded dribble drives, and once he gets inside the paint, whether he shoots or passes, it's game over—sometimes literally.
Shooting Guard
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Clutch Rating: 70.19
Overall Rank: 3
The league's best shooting guard also registers as the most clutch?
Preposterous.
Fourteen total 2-guards are along for this ride, but just like Teague, James Harden dwarfs even his closest competition:
Harden sits here, lording over his peers, because he's doing everything. And yes, that means everything.
Not surprisingly, he ranks second in total points (69) among shooting guards with more than 15 clutch field-goal attempts, behind only Monta Ellis (66). Danny Green, meanwhile, is a distant third (44).
But Harden isn't just scoring. He's assisting on 58.3 percent of Houston's baskets during crunch play. That isn't just first among shooting guards with at least 20 such appearances. It's first among all guards.
This do-it-all performance comes complete with a true shooting percentage—the cumulative measurement of two-point, three-point and free-throw accuracy—of 69.1. That's more than eight points higher than Harden's season benchmark (60.8).
“Every game is a statement for me,” he told reporters after leading the Rockets to a 105-103 overtime victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 1, per The Washington Post's Michael Lee. “I’m out here trying to prove myself.”
As what? A superstar? The NBA's best shooting guard? An MVP candidate? A late-game superhero?
Never mind. It doesn't matter.
Whatever the mission, Harden is accomplishing it.
Small Forward
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Clutch Rating: 80.91
Overall Rank: 1
Don't mind LeBron James. He's just here, doing his thing, being all clutch and stuff.
Only eight small forwards are part of our initial field, and James is crushing them all. The next closest player to him is, shockingly, Carmelo Anthony. James more than doubles his clutch rating of 33.36.
After Anthony, the positional disparity is even more staggering:
Putting James' clutch exploits in proper perspective is tricky because he does everything well, despite the Cavaliers milking his floor presence beyond comprehension.
So let's just start there.
More than 50 percent of the Cavaliers' crunch-time plays run through James, an insane amount that ranks first not only among small forwards with at least 15 different clutch appearances, but all forwards.
Impressive still, James has been incredibly efficient in these situations, relative to his usage rate.
Here's how his 53.6 true shooting percentage stands up against the offensive involvement of every other qualifying small forward:
Yeah, James is an outlier, but in the best possible way.
No wonder why the Cavaliers have a top-five offense in the clutch, or why James is back in the MVP discussion, albeit stealthily. As Shaun Powell writes for NBA.com:
"The year he's having is typical, and when that happens, it's easy to take him for granted. Such is the penalty for greatness and consistency. Michael Jordan was the pacesetter for that. He was so good, for so long, that after a while, folks came up with reasons to push the MVP in the direction of others. To which Karl Malone and Charles Barkley are forever thankful for "Jordan fatigue."
And now, there's every reason to suspect the basketball public is weary of LeBron getting the award every year, even if he's deserving.
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While James' MVP case might be flying under the radar, his effectiveness when it matters most is not. Arguments that deem him a choke artist are old, out of date by years.
James embodies the contrary.
He defines the word clutch.
Power Forward
Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
Clutch Rating: 73.73
Overall Rank: 2
Almost 35 is the new 25—that is, if you're Pau Gasol.
Eight power forwards make the clutch-rating cut, which makes establishing a hierarchy pretty darn easy.
There's Gasol, a 12,000-foot gap and then everyone else:
It starts with his scoring.
Of every power forward to attempt at least 12 shots in the clutch, Gasol's 41 points tie him for the second-most, as well as the fifth-most among all forwards. That's more than LaMarcus Aldridge (33) and Duncan (29). It's also more than Blake Griffin and Zach Randolph have between the two of them (37).
Gasol's court vision is what separates him even further.
The NBA is a perimeter-happy league these days, which limits the number of touches and shots traditional power forwards receive, especially with games on the line. Bigs that warrant substantial usage rates are not usually playmakers; they're just scorers.
Not Gasol, though. His assist percentage is up there, north of 19 percent, for power forwards with at least 25 clutch situations on this season's resume. Relative to his usage rate (23.1), this is just absurd.
Here's how this relationship looks compared to the rest of those power forwards:
Props to guys like Josh Smith and Griffin, but Gasol's balance here, along with his superior scoring totals, is truly remarkable. He is someone who can both drill a crucial bucket and jump-start the offense by facilitating shot attempts from the high post.
With the Chicago Bulls beginning an extended stretch that won't include two of their primary players— Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose—the aging, yet suddenly youthful Gasol cannot afford to be anything less.
Center
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
Clutch Rating: 30.33
Overall Rank: 17
Hawks all over.
Al Horford's presence here is somewhat logic-defying. Not because he isn't a star or dangerous weapon, but because only three total centers are here at all.
Teams don't build offenses around behemoths anymore. Many of today's 5s are defensive specialists. The ones with a scoring conscience are mostly second, third, fourth or even fifth options—hence the scarce company Horford keeps:
Opportunity is everything in this case; Horford is the only center (minimum 20 clutch situations) with a usage rate above 25. Even when we adjust those parameters to a minimum of 10, his usage rate bottoms out as the fourth-highest:
Most centers cannot space the floor like him, which helps account for his higher-than-normal usage rate. Where some are sitting on the bench or merely setting screens, he lurks off the ball, ready to score off the catch from anywhere on the court.
Give him that chance to find nylon, and he will. He's knocking down 47.4 percent of his crunch-time shots (50 percent inside the arc).
Inside or outside the post, it doesn't matter. Horford is one of the most fundamentally sound and contemporary bigs in the game, allowing him to stand as a focal point of an extremely potent Hawks offense. And knowing this, his stay atop the center totem pole really isn't surprising.
Or, for that matter, on the brink of ending anytime soon.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Clutch ratings are accurate as of March 2. All other clutch statistics are accurate leading into games for March 5.
