Handicapping the Race for the 2015 No. 1 NBA Draft Pick
The race is on. For some NBA teams, it never seems to stop.
In the upside-down world that is the bottom of the league standings, it's good to be bad. Each loss theoretically brings a bottom feeder one step closer to its savior by improving its odds of hitting the draft-lottery jackpot.
Having the highest odds guarantees nothing, as history has proved again and again. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won three of the last four draft lotteries despite never owning the league's worst record during that stretch. The team with the best lottery odds hasn't secured the top pick since the Orlando Magic "won" it in 2004.
This is a risky game to play, but the potential reward can make it worth the gamble. For this season's downtrodden teams, a possible avenue to a franchise-caliber big such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor or Kentucky's Karl Towns is one worth exploring.
Several clubs have embraced the loss column, some more openly than others. As a result, there are six teams holding a winning percentage below. 350—and owning better than a 5 percent chance of landing the top selection, per Tankathon.com.
We're handicapping those six on the likelihood that each ends this season with the best lottery odds. Using a combination of tangible (on-court performance, injuries, etc.) and intangible (motivations, chemistry, a willingness to tank, etc.) factors, we'll determine which has the greatest chance to be this season's best worst team.
Orlando Magic
1 of 6
Record: 19-42 (fifth-worst)
The Magic only have seven more victories than the last-place New York Knicks. It's hard to imagine the former will pick up enough wins to close the gap—and even more difficult to imagine the Magic's failure to widen that gap.
Orlando is 4-5 since James Borrego took over for deposed coach Jacque Vaughn. That trend should continue, or perhaps increase, as the team grows more comfortable with Borrego's defense-first mentality.
Since the interim coach's debut on Feb. 6, the Magic have gotten better in several defensive categories:
In Borrego's mind, those numbers should continue to improve.
"Our defense is a work in progress," he said, per Fox Sports Florida's Ken Hornack. "We're far from where we want to be. The goal is to be an elite defense, not just a good or solid defense."
The Magic can line up pesky, athletic defenders along the perimeter in Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon. They could use a rim protector underneath, but it's hard to complain about the center spot when Nikola Vucevic is providing 19.8 points and 11.3 rebounds on a nightly basis.
This team has talent, and it's being better utilized under Borrego. The Magic don't have the easiest remaining schedule by any stretch, but they won't have to win many more games to pull themselves out of this running.
Odds: 40-1
Minnesota Timberwolves
2 of 6
Record: 13-46 (third-worst)
Good luck finding an NBA record more deceptive than the Minnesota Timberwolves' current mark. The standings paint them as one of the league's worst teams, but they don't account for the 111 combined games missed by Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic.
There was no way for Minnesota to mask those absences. It doesn't have another floor general like Rubio, a potent perimeter scorer like Martin or an interior force like Pekovic. As exciting as this team's young talent is, it wasn't nearly polished enough to hold court with the majority of teams it faced.
The T-Wolves have their veteran pieces back now, plus a rising star in rookie Andrew Wiggins, who grows more productive by the day. The 20-year-old left his draft class peers behind a while ago and now finds himself competing against historic standards.
"If Wiggins' numbers hold, he'll become the third player in NBA history to begin the season under 20 years of age and average at least 15 points, four rebounds, one steal and a usage rate north of 20," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "Those other two players are Carmelo Anthony and [LeBron] James."
Since Rubio returned Feb. 2, the T-Wolves are 5-7. During that stretch, they have defeated the Memphis Grizzlies and handed the Washington Wizards a 20-point loss. On the season, Minnesota has a plus-1.7 net efficiency rating with its starting point guard.
The T-Wolves could increase their chances of winning the lottery by resting their vets, but it seems like they would've made that move already if that was their intent. After bringing former franchise face Kevin Garnett back home, Minnesota seems ready to test the limits of what it has.
And there's a mountain of evidence saying this group is significantly stronger than that record suggests.
Odds: 35-1
Denver Nuggets
3 of 6
Record: 20-39 (sixth-worst)
The Denver Nuggets don't immediately come across as a terrible team.
Their roster has a lot of recognizable faces, from prolific point guard Ty Lawson to energetic forward Kenneth Faried to two-way swingman Wilson Chandler. The Nuggets have shooters, slashers, perimeter stoppers and interior defenders. Their forgettable record is still the best on this list.
But the Nuggets haven't been what they appear to be on paper all season.
This team has gone a league-worst 2-19 since Jan. 16, a stretch in which it's been outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game. Head coach Brian Shaw was fired, the team announced Tuesday. To those monitoring the situation, Shaw's dismissal was inevitable.
"Long before the Nuggets dismissed their embattled coach in the middle of a free fall that saw the team drop 19 of its past 21 games with players appearing to no longer care, Shaw had the zombie-eyed look of a dead man walking toward certain doom," wrote Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post.
The Nuggets could certainly continue plummeting without Shaw, which is why they rank higher here than their record suggests they should. Of the 23 games left on their schedule, 14 come against current playoff clubs, including two meetings each with the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers. There's no easy road up ahead.
But there could be a more comfortable one now that there's been closure to Shaw's saga. Even if isn't, the Nuggets may have won too many games earlier this season (they started 9-8 and were 18-20 after 38 games) to really join this race.
Odds: 20-1
Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 6
Record: 16-42 (fourth-worst)
The Los Angeles Lakers recently scared some of their fans by reeling off their second three-game winning streak of the season. Too much success, as the fans know, could produce a worst-case scenario for the purple and gold: losing their top-five-protected first-round pick.
The Lakers need prospects as bad as anyone, both to support Kobe Bryant's twilight years and leave something to look forward to after he's gone. But that incentive isn't strong enough for them to chase losses.
"We’re not trying to tank games. That’s absurd," coach Byron Scott said, per Mark Medina of the LA Daily News. "We’re going to try to win every game."
But players and coaches never participate in the delicate act of embracing the loss column. That job belongs to the front office, and the Lakers' management has put the team in position to contend for the most favorable draft odds.
With Bryant done for the year (shoulder), the Lakers leading scorer is Nick Young. He's shooting 36.6 percent from the field. The top setup man is Jeremy Lin, who hasn't started a game since Jan. 19. Starting center Robert Sacre has a worse opponent field-goal percentage at the rim than Kevin Love (54.2 to 53.6).
The Lakers have everything they need to tank, even if Scott doesn't want to play along. Their coach's competitiveness, combined with some winnable games left on the schedule (one left with the Knicks and Nuggets, two each against the Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers), keeps the Lakers from "climbing" any higher.
But they still hold the third-best odds in this six-team field.
Odds: 6-1
Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 6
Record: 13-47 (second-worst)
In most NBA arenas, programs are a fun luxury to help enhance the experience. But inside Philadelphia's Wells Fargo Center, they are necessities for both visiting fans and Sixers faithful alike. With the most prominent moves of general manager Sam Hinkie's master plan still years away, fans need a guide handy to help them identify the placeholders on Philly's side.
The Sixers have trotted out 24 different players this season, all but six of whom were either undrafted or selected in the second round. You could follow the NBA closely and still not know where some of these players came from.
There's a method to this madness, a blueprint Hinkie has followed that he hopes will eventually lead to the creation of a perennial contender.
"What we're looking to do is build something that can go deep into May and even into June," Hinkie told reporters in February. "And to do that, it will require us to make tough decisions and be comfortable with uncertainty."
Lacking in chemistry, continuity and overall talent, the Sixers have been a disaster at the offensive end. They average 5.9 points per 100 possessions fewer than the Charlotte Hornets, the same size gap sitting between the 29th-ranked Hornets offense and that of the 11th-ranked Grizzlies.
With an attack this feeble, the Sixers won't win many more games no matter how hard they try. But they do get after it defensively (13th in efficiency), giving them one thing to hang their hat on.
That's more than can be said of the favorites in this field.
Odds: 7-2
New York Knicks
6 of 6
Record: 12-46 (worst)
The Knicks have done two things well this season: feed Carmelo Anthony and saturate the loss column.
Anthony had yet another brilliant individual campaign, averaging 24.2 points per game, compiling the 17th-highest PER and shouldering the sixth-heaviest usage percentage. But New York's focal point has been shut down after knee surgery, so now the Knicks are really running short on strengths.
They don't score often or efficiently. Their defense has been dreadful. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 28th on the opposite side. They are the only team sitting in the bottom four of both categories.
"This depleted team will have to get lucky to win even two more games throughout the rest of the season," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "It's going to get ugly."
With Anthony out and Amar'e Stoudemire gone, New York's top two scorers are trade bust Andrea Bargnani and undrafted rookie Langston Galloway. Tim Hardaway Jr. should be the No. 1 option, but it's hard building an offense around a 39.2 percent shooter. Then again, featuring a 7-footer with a 43 percent success rate from the field isn't exactly ideal, either.
At this point, nothing looks good in the Big Apple outside of that mammoth loss total. For all the uncertainties surrounding the Knicks, their place at the bottom feels relatively safe.
Odds: 3-1
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through March 2.
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