Packers' Approach Will be Put to the Test by Randall Cobb

The Green Bay Packers are the NFL's model draft, develop and retain franchise, but the looming free-agent status of receiver Randall Cobb looks ready to shake the foundations of general manager Ted Thompson's team-building operation. 

The deadline to place the franchise or transition tag on Cobb came and went Monday, leaving the 24-year-old star—with Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant tagged and out of the picture—as free agency's most coveted receiver. 

The Packers now have exclusive bargaining rights with Cobb through only 4 p.m ET on Saturday, when agents are allowed to begin discussions with other clubs. No deals can be completed during this legal tampering window, but it can be the gateway to agreements once free agency officially opens at 4 p.m ET next Tuesday.  

	Dates
Franchise Tag	March 2 (passed)
Negotiating Period	March 7-10
Free Agency Begins	March 10, 4 p.m. ET

Thompson and the Packers have rarely faced an economic decision this complicated. 

In a draft-and-develop system, Cobb represents the model player for a second contract. He's young, talented, productive and homegrown. The 64th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Cobb has developed into an asset for the franchise on and off the field.

The Packers manage their salary cap so that deals can be made to retain a player exactly like Cobb. Thompson rarely dips into unrestricted free agency because he firmly believes the fiscally sound strategy is to instead reward his own developed draft picks with long-term deals. The Packers have roughly $32 million in cap space, not for Thompson to go on a spending spree in free agency, but for him to provide second contracts for the likes of Randall Cobb or Bryan Bulaga.

Cobb figures to put the Packers' tried-and-true system to the test. 

Coming off an injury-shortened 2013 season, Cobb bet on himself in 2014 and hit the jackpot. He played in all 16 regular-season games, catching 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns. Throw in two postseason games and Cobb's numbers jump to 116 receptions, 1,465 yards and 13 scores. Cobb was eventually awarded a Pro Bowl spot after Bryant withdrew because of injury. 

He is now in position to cash in—and cash in big—on the open market. 

According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, agent Jimmy Sexton let team executives know at the combine that Cobb's asking price was to be in the range of $12 million per year. Earlier indications, as reported by Rob Demovsky of ESPN, had Cobb in the area of $9 million. 

The franchise tag for receivers in 2015 was a fully guaranteed, one-year sum of $12.823 million. 

Giving Cobb the tag made sense for the Packers, if no reason other than keeping Cobb off the market. While he could have signed the one-year tender immediately, Thompson would still have through mid-July to negotiate a long-term deal. Then again, the Packers had no interest in setting Cobb's baseline value at nearly $13 million. 

Free from the tag, it now seems likely Cobb will wait out the next few days and get to the open market. There, he will find big spenders such as the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars ready to open the checkbooks for one of the game's emerging young stars. A bidding war for the game's top available receiver could net him a sizable payday. 

That is, of course, if Thompson lets Cobb get to the open market. 

Many believed cornerback Sam Shields would test free agency after the Packers declined to give him the franchise tag last spring. And he was certainly well on his way, until Green Bay stepped up to plate in the dying embers of the three-day negotiation window and agreed to a four-year deal worth $39 million to keep Shields off the open market. 

The Packers' modus operandi demands that players such as Shields and Cobb are retained as core players, even if that means overpaying. Thompson and vice president of player football administration Russ Ball manage a healthy cap year after year, but the two haven't been averse to paying a little extra to keep in-house free agents. Shields is a top example, but recent deals with A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones and Morgan Burnett show the Packers aren't afraid to spend. 

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Then again, Cobb appears to be a unique case. He's pushing the boundaries of simply "overpaying," and the Packers probably aren't interested in being serious players in a open-ended bidding war. There will be a price where negotiations in Green Bay end, even with a player like Cobb. 

Other factors are in play. 

The Packers must consider Cobb's role as primarily a slot receiver—a lesser valued skill set than that of an outside receiver—and the impact MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had on Cobb's impressive production. It's possible Cobb is nothing more than a very good No. 2 receiver, playing in a perfect system for his abilities and with the ideal quarterback to get him the football. 

There's also Thompson's impressive track record of drafting receivers. The Packers have had a number of receivers leave Green Bay, only to be replaced by one of Thompson's draft picks. Green Bay currently has Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis entering their second seasons after being selected by Thompson last May, and the 2015 class of incoming receivers appears to be another deep, talented group. If Cobb leaves, Thompson could dip his hand of Midas back into the receiver pot in two month's time and find a replacement at a fraction of the price. 

The Packers are also dealing with a salary ceiling of sorts. Last July, Jordy Nelson signed a four-year extension worth roughly $9.8 million per season in new money. It is unknown if Thompson and Ball are comfortable giving Cobb a higher average salary than Nelson, the team's top receiver. Nelson is a consummate professional and might not take to heart Cobb making more, but it's a factor nonetheless. 

Clearly, the situation is far more complicated—on both sides of the ledger—than the Packers simply paying Cobb the money he wants to return to Green Bay. 

Thompson has a successful system of acquiring and retaining players in place. It has worked to great effect for the better part of a decade. Cobb appears to be a special case, with a number of moving parts and a price tag that seems to keep going up. 

It still seems unfathomable that Thompson and the Packers would let a player like Cobb get away. Losing him would violate their operating procedure. But then again, Cobb looks prepared to push the limits of what Thompson's system can handle. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2