
Free Agent or Draft: How Should Detroit Lions Fill Their Biggest Holes?
The Detroit Lions—who usually dig themselves into holes—actually have very few positions to address this offseason. But for those they do, the critical question is determining if there is better value in free agency or the 2015 NFL draft.
Before we move on to main event, there is an interesting paradigm that Kent Lee Platte of DetroitLionsDraft.com and Twitter user @Redruckus81 brought to my attention:
"@BrandonAlisoglu I was talking with Kent about this before and the Lions biggest issue I see is we have a lot of guys "just good enough:
— Redruckus81 (@Redruckus81) March 3, 2015"
The theory is that the Lions have quite a few players who don't fall into the good category, but do enough to warrant their current spots. So instead of replacing an OK defensive end (Jason Jones), the Lions hold tight because they've seen him handle the job adequately at times.
Those aren't the types of issues we're tackling here. Those are the slight improvements and tinkerings of a championship team. The Lions are close, but they must address the following needs either through the draft or free agency to take the next step. Click through to find the best route for Detroit's biggest needs.
Running Back
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The Lions are presumably in the market for a change-of-pace home run hitter out of the backfield after releasing Reggie Bush.
The free-agent market is brimming with veteran talent. However, the only one that fits the bill is C.J. Spiller, who, despite an amazing 2012 where he averaged six yards per carry, has been lost under a sea of injuries and Fred Jackson.
And Bleacher Report's Alessandro Miglio explains that those aren't the only reasons for his decline:
"Spiller hasn't simply been a victim of circumstance, though.
His rating over at PFF during that fantastic 2012 season was 23.4, good for second in the league. He had -7.8 and -5.9 ratings in each of the past two seasons, respectively.
The poor ratings aren't without reason—Spiller showed flashes of his potential, but he didn't do himself many favors on the field. Tentative at the line at times, easy to bring down at others, it seemed like Spiller had his talent transfused to DeMarco Murray.
"
The draft has a much deeper crop of elusive running backs that can hurt teams through the air and on the ground. Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and Indiana's Tevin Coleman could both likely be had early on Day 2 and provide the type of burst that Detroit is looking for.
There are also some who will provide more bang for their buck like Jay Ajayi or David Cobb. They just don't have the explosive element of those above. And if general manager Martin Mayhew feels like gambling, Karlos Williams is 6'1" and 230 pounds with 4.48 speed, per NFL.com.
Verdict: Draft
Fullback
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Every Lions mock draft or late-round gems article will either feature Jalston Fowler in the article itself or in the comment section. And the intrigue is easy to understand.
"Re: T.J. Yeldon's tape. (Runs high but + balance). FB Jalston Fowler pops as guy who paved way on majority of Yeldon's big runs between OTs
— Chris Trapasso (@ChrisTrapasso) February 19, 2015"
He cemented his status as the fullback of this year's draft with his 4.94 40 at the combine. The combination of tape and workout numbers mean someone will definitely give him a chance.
But he might be the only option if you're looking for an instant starter, which Detroit is.
Free agency, however, offers a few different options.
There's former Lion turned Pro Bowler Jerome Felton, who helped open the road for Adrian Peterson's record-setting 2013 season. And don't forget about New England's James Develin and New York's Henry Hynoski, two fullbacks who finished in Pro Football Focus' top four.
Of course, there's also Jed Collins. He knows the system, will come cheaply (like every other fullback) and was league average by the same grading system used for the prior two.
In this instance, you're almost bidding against yourself for the one fullback commodity in the draft. Why waste that pick when there are plenty of adequate options at a position that "played 22.5 percent of the snaps for the offense last season," per Lucas Polglaze of Pro Football Spot.
Verdict: Free Agency
Left Guard
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The Lions presumably have four of the five positions covered with either Cornelius Lucas or LaAdrian Waddle holding down right tackle. But there's a hole at left guard that LenDale White could run through. Now.
Figuratively, of course. Nobody could run behind Rob Sims last year, and now every mock draft has to include Detroit and A.J. Cann, Laken Tomlinson or Ali Marpet, or risk a severe public shaming.
But the Lions need a stabilizing force along the line, not a project. Particularly one that may not fit the scheme:
"@MockingTheDraft I don't know how well Laken Tomlinson fits the ZBS. Very similar to Justin Blalock in a lot of ways. Could see a double-dip
— Scott Carasik (@ScottCarasik) March 2, 2015"
If Detroit drafts someone to fill this hole, Riley Reiff would be the elder statesman at 26 years old, leading a group that has barely four years of total game experience our side of Reiff.
No, the Lions should turn to someone like Clint Boling. He's had two seasons graded in the top 22 among guards in the past three years. He can team with new center Travis Swanson and right guard Larry Warford to combine an adequate interior at worst.
And that would be a huge improvement over the last year's matadors.
Verdict: Free Agency
Defensive Tackle
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Is a push a cop out?
Plus, the Lions are down four defensive tackles since December in Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, C.J. Mosley and Andre Fluellen. It's unfathomable to either draft or sign four players for one position in one offseason.
That's why I continue to mock defensive tackles to Detroit early in the draft. It doesn't matter how many people pick Malcom Brown for the Lions. I won't shy from a good fit because it's not cool to roll with the masses.
"Kiper says Reggie Bush getting cut doesn't really change his thinking about Lions. Calls Malcom Brown a "stud," while you can get RBs later
— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) February 26, 2015"
And the free agents? Don't be surprised if one of them is the guy rarely discussed these days because C.J. Mosley might provide the best value out of the entire crop.
Detroit has already brought in former Ram Kendall Langford for a visit and guys like Jared Odrick, Henry Melton and Terrance Knighton will keep prices from inflating because of all the available talent.
There's too much work to do to rely on one phase of improvement. Both wells provide value and should be mined appropriately.
Verdict: Both
Cornerback
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Save your comments. The beginning of the headline reads "Free Agency or Draft," but the later half leaves an open-ended question for interpretation. So save your fingers the workout. My logic is legitimate.
The Lions should turn to both the draft and free agency to address the hole at cornerback.
First, general manager Martin Mayhew needs to get Rashean Mathis on board for another year. It shouldn't be too difficult considering what he told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
"Lions CB Rashean Mathis wants to return for 2015 (and beyond) http://t.co/Htej3C4wcj via @freep
— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) January 23, 2015"
Then, it's time to find the long-term solution. Everyone has heard of Trae Waynes, Marcus Peters, P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby, but PFF's Cian Fahey suggests teams would be shortsighted to overlook a certain Demon Deacon:
"Kevin Johnson is a better CB than Marcus Peters, Trae Waynes, Jalen Collins, P.J. Williams and Quinten Rollins IMO.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) March 3, 2015"
Detroit's championship window is open so the team needs to maintain a high level of play in 2015. The Lions also need to invest in the future and find talented depth that can be mentored into a long-term starter. That takes a two-pronged approach.
Verdict: Both
Third Wide Receiver
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There is some talent on the free-agent market, but while this year's receiving draft class isn't the 2014 version, it isn't that far off either.
Consider this: Matt Miller, Bleacher Report's resident draft guru, has 17 receivers ranked in his top 109 prospects. That's an incredible ratio.
And that's just the top of the class. There's a chance you can grab someone like Kenny Bell in the fifth or sixth round:
"Waldman gushing about Bell weeks ago, so had to take closer look. Competitive, fiery, decisive, plays with urgency. Kenny Stills w more edge
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) February 21, 2015"
Again, Bell is a mid- to late-round pick. Guys like Nelson Agholor and Breshad Perriman (Brett's son) are just below the top tier and both should be available during the second day.
Free agency doesn't offer that type of depth. There are some bigger names, like Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin, but you're not going to find any real value like a team can in the draft.
Verdict: Draft
All advanced stats, grades and rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. All contract numbers are sourced from Spotrac.
Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.
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