San Francisco 49ers: Potential Replacements for Stevie Johnson
According to numerous reports, the San Francisco 49ers are preparing either to cut Stevie Johnson or ask him to take a pay cut.
There’s some confusion as to which option the 49ers are going with, but an apparent Instagram post by Johnson indicates that this might be the end of the line for Johnson and the 49ers.
Johnson caught 35 passes for 435 yards and three touchdowns last season, most notably in a nine-reception, 103-yard day against Arizona in Week 3.
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According to Spotrac, cutting Johnson would save the 49ers just under $6 million against the salary cap, and considering that he would be replaced on the current roster, for salary-cap purposes, by someone making the league minimum.
Because Johnson’s contract is entirely not guaranteed, he was a logical target this offseason for salary relief. A $6 million contract put him in line with players like Eric Decker or Marques Colston, and Johnson hasn’t put up numbers like those players since 2012. Some salary reduction was definitely prudent for the 49ers.
However, the 49ers are still in need of receiver talent, and Johnson was very solid when healthy and on the field for the 49ers in 2014.
Stuck splitting time as the third receiver with Brandon Lloyd, Johnson caught more than 70 percent of the passes thrown his way and arguably had a better rapport with Colin Kaepernick than Michael Crabtree did.
I would have felt confident with him as a second receiver behind Anquan Boldin, even if both players are somewhat similar types of receiver.
Essentially, the 49ers need to earmark some of Johnson’s $6 million salary toward a second veteran receiver. Even if they draft a first-round receiver in this year’s draft, having a rookie and two unproven players in Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton behind Boldin is not an ideal setup by any stretch of the imagination.
Another receiver with experience is key, if only to give the presumptive rookie time to acclimate to an NFL system before being thrust into a major role.
That role can be filled either by Johnson on a reduced salary or an external free agent—it doesn’t particularly matter which one, as long as there’s someone with NFL experience on the depth chart below Boldin.
If you assume for the moment that the top six free-agent receivers—who are, in some order, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith and Demaryius Thomas—will all command salaries of more than $6 million a year, there’s only one free agent out there whom I’d rather have than Stevie Johnson: Jacksonville’s Cecil Shorts.
Over the past three seasons, Shorts has averaged 58 receptions for 771 yards and four touchdowns. As is, those numbers are adequate, if not awe-inspiring—they’re pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of a second receiver.
However, you have to take into account the fact that Shorts has had to work with Chad Henne, Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles in his four years in Jacksonville. No matter what you think about Kaepernick, he’s in an entirely different weight class than those three.
The best quarterback of that bunch is Henne, and Shorts showed flashes of potential with him at quarterback. In 2012, splitting time between Henne and Gabbert, Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging an excellent 17.8 yards per reception.
The 49ers haven’t had anyone average that many yards per reception on more than a handful of catches since Antonio Bryant back in 2006—and before him, you have to go back to the days of Jerry Rice and John Taylor. It’s been awhile.
Of course, Shorts hasn’t put up those numbers since 2012. Some of it can be blamed on poor quarterback play, but not all of it.
Shorts has struggled with numerous soft-tissue injuries, including hamstring pulls, shoulder separations and groin injuries. He’s never been active for a full NFL season, and he normally misses about a month here and there while playing through injuries for about half the season.
When healthy, Shorts occasionally struggles with drops as well. Last year, for instance, Pro Football Focus charted Shorts with seven drops, and he had 10 the year before. Some of that comes from poorly thrown balls—note that PFF credits Jacksonville’s other top receiver, Allen Hurns, with seven drops last season—but some of that is just sub-standard hands.
All things being equal, though, that makes him a relatively budget-friendly option for a second receiver. I think the 49ers could sign him for, at most, $4 million a season. That would save the 49ers $2 million compared to just keeping Johnson around, which they could use to attempt to re-sign a key contributor at another position, such as cornerback Chris Culliver.
Assuming Johnson won’t accept a pay cut, here are four other receivers whom the 49ers could plug in on a short-term deal for less than the $6 million Johnson was slated to make.
I’d rather have Johnson than any of the following, but these are only slight downgrades who could save the 49ers valuable cap room. Many of them are players who had an off 2014 and thus may be signed at a discount with the hopes that they’d return to their previous forms.
Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams
Britt averaged 15.6 yards per reception for the Rams despite their injury apocalypse at the quarterback position. It was a much-needed bounce-back year for the receiver after wearing out his welcome in Tennessee—Britt’s always been talented, but he has had personal and injury issues that have made him something of a headache in the past.
He’d be a good complement to Boldin—a deep threat to correspond with Boldin’s possession receiver skills.
After 2011, the idea of getting Nicks on a budget would have seemed ludicrous—he was coming off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and looked to be developing into a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver.
Since then, however, Nicks has never topped 900 yards, and he had career lows in receptions, yards and yards per reception in 2014.
Excluding last year, however, Nicks has averaged 14.9 yards per reception in his career, so he might be worth buying on a short-term, reduced deal. If he can bounce back, his 2014 poor season will just serve to lower his price and make him a bargain.
Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders
Holmes might be my favorite super-budget option, as he’s never made more than $1 million in a season—he’ll be signed for something just above the veteran’s minimum, in all likelihood.
Holmes has flashed some game-changing abilities at times, however. In 2014, he had six games over 50 yards receiving, including a tremendous two-touchdown game against San Diego.
Unlike the other receivers on this list, Holmes would be best suited as a third receiver behind Boldin and a first-round rookie, but I think he could do damage at that position. He is only a restricted free agent, so the Raiders may opt to just keep him, but if he’s available, he’s certainly worth kicking the tires on.
The Miami Dolphins just released Hartline, who was going to count $7.35 million against their salary cap in 2015, according to ESPN. That’s too much for a solid receiver like Hartline, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a valuable contributor.
Hartline had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2012 and 2013 before seeing his targets and production plummet last season. While he was more or less invisible last season, he has a history of success. If 2014 was an off year, he’ll be a valuable bargain for someone this offseason.
Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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