Oakland Raiders' Blueprint for Winning Free Agency
Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie knows that his job is on the line.
In the three years the team has been under his watch, the rosters that he's built have a combined 11-39 record for a pathetic winning percentage of 28.2%. There's no way to excuse that no matter how you look at it.
To be fair, the situation that he inherited when he took over in 2012 was an absolute mess. The roster was riddled with under-performing players that were vastly overpaid (remember Stanford Routt's five-year, $54.5 million deal?).
Oakland didn't have the personnel to succeed, and the dumpster fire that was the team's finances crippled the team even further. The organization spent a decade trying to dig its way out of a hole, which caused it to sink further and further into mediocrity.
When McKenzie stepped in, he made a difficult but logical decision: Scrap the whole thing and start over.
Now, the team's finances are in order, but the losses keep piling up. For McKenzie to keep his job, the team can't just improve in 2015. It has to win, and it has to win now.
Fortunately, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Oakland is heading into the free agency period with plenty to spend. The players that the Raiders need will be available, and the team has the bankroll to bring them in.
The pieces are in place for McKenzie to put the team in position to finally make its way out of the NFL's basement.
Here's how he can do it.
McKenzie and a Ton of Salary Cap Space: Take 2
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McKenzie's tenure as Oakland's general manager has been far from perfect, and he's given fans of the team plenty to be unhappy about. But he's also done more good than he's been given credit for.
One area in which he's been an undoubted success is in managing the salary cap. Through three years on the job, his handling of the team's finances has been masterful.
According to ESPN.com's John Clayton, Oakland will enter free agency with $56.5 million to spend with the release of Tyvon Branch. The impending release of LaMarr Woodley will push this number even higher. And the number can grow even more if McKenzie opts to part ways with Matt Schaub ($5.5 million) and Maurice Jones-Drew ($2.5 million over two years).
This cap space will be the result of team-friendly contracts and the elimination of crippling dead money, the new modus operandi implemented by McKenzie. The Raiders will have enough money to sign anyone they want.
There's also the fact that McKenzie has to spend whether he wants to or not. According to ESPN's John Clayton, the Raiders are $22.5 million under the minimum amount they had to spend over the past two seasons as required by the collective bargaining agreement (CBA).
Of course, this is the same scenario as last year. But in 2014, McKenzie opted for quantity over quality, and the results were disastrous.
He had a reason for that approach. But he understands that it didn't work and that it has to be different in 2015 (via the Oakland Tribune's Jerry McDonald):
"I’m going to try and go after good players. I don’t think last year, I felt like we need[ed] more role players. Now we’re looking for some guys who can come in and be impact (players). Be starters. More so. So in volume, that way, I’m looking for less volume that way. I don’t need as many backup players. We need to get stronger. We’re going to go after some real players.
"
This quote is music to fans' ears. Big money should equal big names. And it seems like this year, that will be the case.
It's an especially good year to have a lot of cap space given the top-end talent that's going to be available. McKenzie has already committed to spending on players that will finally equal more wins.
The only question now is: Who should he give the money to?
Where to Begin and How to Proceed
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The Raiders have needs all over the roster. But they can't afford to sign the best available player at every position. McKenzie needs to prioritize the team's needs and start from the top.
He must address these positions in this order:
| First Priority | Wide Receiver, Defensive Tackle |
| Second Priority | Center |
| Third Priority | Safety, Tight End, Middle Linebacker |
| Fourth Priority | Cornerback, Running Back |
Beginning on March 7, the first day teams can reach out to players, the first-priority positions need to be taken care of immediately. Before any other positions are addressed, McKenzie must lock in proven starters at these two positions.
Not only are these the team's weakest positions, they're also positions at which top-level talent is going to be available. McKenzie has to add proven, reliable players, and he must do so on the first day of free agency. Waiting too long will allow other teams to sign the top players at these positions and force Oakland to settle for less.
Next up is center (the second priority), where Oakland is currently looking for a starter. Negotiations with Stefen Wisniewski are ongoing, but there seems to be a fundamental impasse. McKenzie sees him as average. Wisniewski sees himself as elite. Unless one of those two opinions changes, the gap in expected salary is never going to close.
McKenzie has to address this immediately for two reasons: You have to have a reliable leader for the offensive line and options are limited.
Wisniewski and Rodney Hudson are the best options. McKenzie has to sign one of them, and he must do so before someone else gets to them.
Middle linebacker and safety are also very important, but the middle linebackers and safeties that are going to be available are good, not elite. This leaves more time for negotiation, and there isn’t a middle linebacker or safety that Oakland has to have. There will be a few available. McKenzie just has to find a good one at each position.
At tight end, many fans are clamoring for Julius Thomas. However, he’s overvalued for a few reasons: his stats were inflated by playing with Peyton Manning, his ability to stay healthy remains a question and he’s the only big name in an otherwise unimpressive field of free agent tight ends. His price is going to skyrocket beyond the money he’s actually worth.
Cornerback remains an issue, but McKenzie has committed to D.J. Hayden, T.J. Carrie and Keith McGill for the upcoming season. Oakland still needs reinforcements, but the starters are set. McKenzie is instead looking for depth. That can be found later.
All three fourth-priority positions can also be effectively addressed in the draft, especially running back. Each positions needs reinforcements, but there’s more time for that.
When looking at the positions mentioned above, McKenzie can't just find decent additions. Each signing has to be done with the idea that it will directly lead to both more wins and the playoffs. As foreign as that might seem for a team that just went 3-13, that has to be the goal. Anything less is unacceptable.
When 2015 begins, the Raiders need to be a legitimate playoff contender. The right signings early in free agency are the way that has to happen.
If You (Over)pay Them, They Will Come
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Heading into free agency, McKenzie must keep two things in mind: He has plenty of cap room, and he's running a franchise that's been one of the NFL's worst for over a decade.
Given the priorities mentioned in the previous slide, McKenzie's first two calls on March 7 need to be to the agents of Randall Cobb and Ndamukong Suh.
There are going to be a lot of wide receivers available—including Jeremy Maclin and Torrey Smith—but Cobb is the best option.
McKenzie has a few things working to his advantage in his pursuit of Cobb. He was a part of the Green Bay Packers front office that drafted Cobb, so he has a pre-existing relationship with the dynamic receiver. He also has the cash to pay Cobb what he's looking for, which is reported to be in the neighborhood of $9 million a year according to Rob Demovsky at ESPN.com.
Suh is looking for a similarly big payday. According to the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett, "Suh, 28, wants to be the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL, both in terms of guaranteed money and average salary."
Birkett goes on to add that this would amount to "a deal worth at least $100 million."
Suh is looking for a deal similar to the one J.J. Watt received from the Houston Texans: six years, $100 million. The contract averages out to about $16.67 million a year, a number that might scare some teams away from going after the defensive tackle.
But the reality is different. Here's a breakdown of Watt's actual salary per year beginning with when he signed the extension (via the Houston Chronicle's John McClain):
| Year | Salary | Cap Hit |
| 2014 | $907,385 | $4.575 million |
| 2015 | $9.969 million | $21.969 million |
| 2016 | $10.5 million | $12.5 million |
| 2017 | $10.5 million | $12.5 million |
| 2018 | $11 million | $13 million |
| 2019 | $13 million | $13 million |
| 2020 | $15.5 million | $15.5 million |
| 2021 | $17.5 million | $17.5 million |
These numbers are a good indication of what it would cost to add Suh. These are still big numbers, but they're manageable, especially for a team with as much cap space as Oakland.
This is also a unique circumstance. This isn't just about signing the big name. The fact is that players like Suh hit free agency once a decade, maybe less. He's a player that can change the direction of a franchise, and the Raiders have a very real chance of signing him. There are times when going for broke is the right move. This is one of those times.
But it's not just about money. The player has to want to play for Oakland, and that's a challenge considering Oakland's record in recent years. Suh and Cobb want the big payday, but they also want to win. McKenzie first has to convince both that this team is ready to start winning, and both can be a part of it.
He also has to sweeten the pot.
McKenzie can afford to outbid any team expect the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only organization that will have more cap space than the Raiders. To finally turn the franchise around, he has to be willing to do just that.
More importantly, McKenzie can afford these contracts and still have plenty to spread around the rest of the roster given Oakland's projected cap space.
With as much cap room as McKenzie has to work with, he doesn't have to pick one or the other. He can sign both, and that has to be the goal.
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Be Greedy with the Best of the Rest
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Signing Cobb and Suh is a nice a start, but that's just the beginning. While this free-agency class is loaded at the top, the second-tier free agents are also impressive. McKenzie needs to take the same aggressive approach to the second tier given how many needs this team has.
This is where McKenzie must address the second- and third-priority positions, beginning with center. Bringing Stefen Wisniewski back is still a possibility, but McKenzie needs to start his search with Rodney Hudson.
According to the Kansas City Star's Terez A. Paylor, Hudson is looking for a deal "north of at least $6 million a season."
That's a big price tag, but it's well worth it worth it for a 25-year-old center that can solidify the middle of the offensive line for the foreseeable future.
Safety and middle linebacker also need to be addressed, and there's no shortage of options.
At safety, the big names are Rahim Moore and Devin McCourty. Both would be great additions, but they'll demand top dollar. Those types of contracts need to go to other positions in Oakland.
Instead, McKenzie needs to go with a less-heralded but still effective free agents such as Antrelle Rolle and Da'Norris Searcy.
At 32 years old, Rolle won't command as big of a contract, but he can still be productive for a few more years. Searcy isn't a superstar, but he is effective, which is what McKenzie should be looking for.
The same applies at linebacker, where the Raiders have two studs on the outside in Khalil Mack and Sio Moore. Rey Maualuga would be a nice fit, as would David Harris.
The tight end position gets trickier given the limited options. Aside from Julius Thomas, free agency can only offer decent additions. But that's not a bad thing. McKenzie is looking for a complement to pass-catcher Mychal Rivera. Jermaine Gresham would be a good option.
McKenzie has opted to let veteran cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown leave in free agency, instead choosing to go with youngsters D.J. Hayden, T.J. Carrie and Keith McGill. Given that Hayden and McGill are currently penciled in as the starters, McKenzie isn't looking for an every-down cornerback. But some veteran leadership would still help.
Running back could be the trickiest to figure out for McKenzie. Latavius Murray is the leading candidate to start and Maurice Jones-Drew is the only other running back left from last year's roster. Darren McFadden is unlikely to be re-signed, and Jones-Drew is closer to being cut than not.
That leaves Oakland with possibly two openings at running back. McKenzie's draft class will likely include a running back, but he also needs to consider a viable partner for Murray in the backfield. With plenty of options—including players like Shane Vereen, Reggie Bush, Roy Helu and Ahmad Bradshaw—that won't be hard to do. It's also a position that can be addressed later in free agency.
This Is What General Managers Play For!
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While every free agency period is hectic, this year's is special because of the level of talent that will be available. Future wins and playoffs berths are there for the taking—or, more accurately, the signing. Both are there for the team with the cap space to make it happen, and that's something Oakland has plenty of.
Given his background, McKenzie doesn't seem prone to big deals and huge contracts. In general, that's a safe approach. But with the free agents that will be available, now's the time to break the mold.
McKenzie has the resources to be the hero, to be the one that finally returns the proud Raiders franchise to relevance. He has to embrace the moment and make it happen.
This is McKenzie's big game. His championship. His all-or-nothing moment. He's spent years cleaning up the team's finances, clearing out cap space and accepting losing season after losing season for a time like this.
Now, the moment has arrived, and he has to come through.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats taken from ESPN.com. Follow and share your thoughts and opinions @BrianJ_Flores.
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