Florida Gators 2009 National Champs? Not So Fast, My Friends!

First, let's recap how preseason No. 1's have done in the BCS National Championship Game the last few years:

2002: Miami is ranked number one in both preseason polls.  They lose to preseason ranked No. 12/13 Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

2003: Oklahoma is ranked number one in both polls.  Ohio State is number two.  Preseason No. 14/15 LSU defeats Oklahoma in the title game.

2005: USC is the preseason number one, getting the majority of number one votes in both polls.  They lose to Texas in the title game.

2006: Ohio State is ranked at the top in both polls before the year.  They lose to preseason No. 7/8 Florida.

2007: USC is by far number one in both preseason polls.  They are absent from the title game, where LSU defeats Ohio State.

2008: Georgia is the number one in both preseason polls.   They don't make the title game, where Florida takes down Oklahoma.

2009: Florida is far and away the number one in the preseason poll that has been released at this point. 

Everyone has the Gators winning the BCS National Championship.

Recent BCS history seems to disagree.

The Gators have won two out of the last three championships, they return 11 starters on defense, and one of college football's all-time greats in quarterback Tim Tebow on offense.  They have arguably the best coach in college football with Urban Meyer.  So it is National Championship or bust in Gainesville, as it probably should be.  Most people across the nation expect the Gators to win it all this year, and for Tim Tebow to lead them like the champion that he is.

But as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!"  Yes, the Gators return much of last year's squad, but history predicts a different future for the Gators.  The preseason number one, seven out of the last eight years, has not won the national championship.  The preseason number one is the national-championship-or-bust spot.  These expectations are generally just too much for a team of college students to handle.

The lone exception to this trend was in 2004 when preseason number one USC dominated Oklahoma in the title game.  USC returned a solid team from the previous year, just like Florida.  They had a great quarterback in Matt Leinart, just like what the Gators have in Tebow.  But USC played in the Pac-10, not the dominant SEC that Florida plays in. 

If Florida slips up one time in their brutal conference, they may not be in the title game.  If they lose their conference championship game against the next best team in the conference, they can kiss their dream season goodbye.  USC did not have to play a conference championship game.

Florida doesn't really have any questions on defense, but the offense is full of them.  Sure, they have Tim Tebow, but contrary to what some might think, he cannot block for himself or receive his own passes downfield.  He cannot return kicks or punts, and he cannot kick field goals.  He cannot replace an injured player on offense or defense.

Although he can inspire the whole team, and he can do a lot of it, he cannot do it all.

All the attention goes to Tim Tebow and the dominant defense, but the Gators need to replace two tackles, arguably the two most important offensive line positions.  They will have to make up for all the things that Percy Harvin did last year, and they will have to find a new kicker. 

And who's to say that a key piece of the defense won't get injured, and they have to put in a second-string player, one who has little to no experience because all 11 starters are the same from last year?

No one is saying that the Gators can't win the championship.  They definitely have the talent to do it.  But they face a mountain of a challenge as they are expected by almost everyone in the nation to take home the BCS crystal trophy.  They could most certainly make the BCS title game, but winning it is a whole 'nother ball game.  The last SEC team to have these ridiculously high expectations?  2008's Georgia Bulldogs, who we all know did not even make the title game.

So if it's not the Gators, then who?

How about second ranked Texas?  They return the most accurate passer in college football in Colt McCoy, who is overshadowed nationally by Tim Tebow. 

I don't see Oklahoma doing it, as they lose some key pieces to the offensive line, but they could make up for it elsewhere.

USC could do it, even though they are bringing in a new quarterback, and lose the best linebacking corps possibly ever.

Alabama is breaking in a new quarterback.  Ohio State could do it with their Big 10 schedule if they can take Penn State.  Virginia Tech could Beamer Ball its way to the title. 

Penn State loses some key receivers but with that Big 10 schedule, they could win it all.  LSU has a new quarterback, but they play Florida at home this year.  Mississippi or Oklahoma State have the firepower offensively to crash Florida's party.

Those are just the top eleven teams.  What if Georgia flies under the radar and takes it this year?  How about Jahvid Best taking the Golden Bears to the promised land?  Oregon could do it.  Georgia Tech's triple option could take the nation by surprise.  Maybe this is the year that a non-BCS team finally gets respected and makes it.  Hello Boise State, TCU, Utah, and BYU!

I'm not counting Florida out, not by any means.  They could still win the national championship—I'm just saying that it is not likely that they will.  No one can really know who will win it all, but if given the choice to take Florida or the rest of the field, take the field.