7 NBA Takeaways from 2015 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Over the weekend, some of the sports world's brightest and most innovative minds convened at MIT for the annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
With discussion topics ranging from analytical processes in the NBA uncovering hidden gems to the league's efforts to make its product even more ubiquitous, several fascinating revelations were made during the two-day statistical extravaganza.
Whether it was Shane Battier's status as the NBA's original analytical darling, Josh Smith's rapid evolution with the Houston Rockets or commissioner Adam Silver's hopes for the future of NBA consumption, there was plenty of compelling forward-thinking analysis from the Association's intelligentsia worth digging into.
Shane Battier Is the Original Analytics Poster Child
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With career averages of 8.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists, Shane Battier never shattered box scores or stood out on tape.
He did, however, play a specific role that helped his teams flourish.
Speaking during the "Innovators and Adopters" panel Friday morning, Battier explained how he became an integral contributor beyond the stat sheet thanks to enlightening messages from former head coaches.
The first came courtesy of fellow panelist Jeff Van Gundy, who served as Battier's coach with the Houston Rockets. Embracing one of the many principles that have come to define the league's most ambitious analytical organization, Battier explained how Van Gundy asked his defense to operate.
"Contested two-point dribble jumpers don't beat us," Battier said of Van Gundy's message, according to ESPN TrueHoop's Mason Ginsberg.
Battier, who called Van Gundy's approach "liberating," flourished during his four-and-a-half seasons with the Rockets. Over that span, he tallied a defensive win shares total of 15.9, good for 45 percent of his career total, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Offensively, Battier had a similar epiphany upon joining the Miami Heat.
According to the man himself, head coach Erik Spoelstra had these words for Battier: "I don’t want you to dribble. I don’t want you to post up. I don’t want you to offensive rebound. I don’t want you to do anything but literally catch and shoot or catch and pass."
And while metrics like player efficiency rating didn't paint Battier in a particularly positive light, his willingness to play a diminished role helped the Heat prosper.
"The extra foot of space I gave LeBron was critical to him completing the play or not," Battier said, according to Nylon Calculus' Seth Partnow.
Advanced stats aside, Battier touched on a key point.
While numbers do tell part of the story, role acceptance is a major component of success from individual and organizational standpoints. Without Battier's ability to occupy catch-and-shoot posts in the corners or on the wings, operating space for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh would have been diminished—thus limiting Miami's offensive versatility.
As teams across the NBA have quickly learned, opening up driving lanes by stationing shooters along the three-point line has emerged as a trendy way to aid offensive efficiency.
SportVU Data Shows Why Josh Smith Is Finally Improving
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Perhaps it's time to retire the Josh Smith jokes.
Speaking during the "Innovators and Adopters" panel, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey had some very kind words for his team's biggest midseason acquisition.
"He's our best three-point shooter," Morey said, according to NBC Sports' Dan Feldman.
Given Smith's past, that remark seems a tad preposterous on the surface. But as the numbers indicate, Smith has been quite steady from beyond the arc since joining the Rockets on Dec. 26.
During that time, Smith is shooting 36 percent on catch-and-shoot threes, according to SportVU player-tracking data. And in February, that mark skyrocketed up to 41.3 percent.
That's one of the main reasons why Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley listed Smith as the league's best sixth man last month:
"He isn't forcing things offensively, as his February shooting marks of 46.2 percent from the field and 42.2 percent from deep indicate. If the right shot isn't there for him, he's spotting an open shooter or hitting a slasher on his way to the rim.
There have always been peaks and valleys in his production, but his good times can be very good.
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And as Morey discussed, opponents' willingness to double-team James Harden has opened up free looks for Smith.
New Defensive Metrics Prove Chris Paul Is the NBA's Best Perimeter Defender
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Defensive metrics remain an inexact science, but a more comprehensive understanding of possession-to-possession impact may soon be on the way.
Thanks to Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry and his colleagues at Harvard University, two fascinating ways to understand defensive impact have been developed:
- Defensive Shot Charts: Depictions of how a defender’s opponents shoot and score against him.
- Counterpoints: Estimates of how many points an individual defender allows per 100 possessions.
As Goldsberry writes, those models are particularly kind to Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul and his tenacious defensive stylings.
"According to Franks and Miller, Chris Paul is the best perimeter defender in the NBA," Goldsberry said. "They have empirical evidence that the Clippers point guard suppresses and disrupts shot activity as much or more than any other guard in the league."
Conversely, Goldsberry notes that MVP front-runner James Harden lies on the other end of the defensive efficiency spectrum in one-on-one matchups.
I encourage taking a look at the complete breakdown, which is replete with terrific visuals and loads of in-depth analysis.
Khris Middleton Is the NBA's Next Analytical Darling
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Milwaukee Bucks combo-forward Khris Middleton isn't a household name, and he may never be one. But as far as under-the-radar contributors go, Middleton should be considered an NBA prince.
Bleacher Report's Michael Pina recently explained the phenomenon in great detail:
"Milwaukee is never better on both ends than when Middleton is on the floor, according to NBA.com. The team's net rating goes from plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions when Middleton is on the court to minus-4.9 points per 100 possessions when he sits on the bench—the equivalent of going from the second-best team in the league to 25th.
Milwaukee’s offense melts when Middleton hits the pine, going from 104.9 points per 100 possessions to 98.7 points per 100 possessions. And the defense goes from 94.9 points per 100 possessions to 103.6 points per 100 possessions with Middleton on and off the court.
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However, Middleton isn't averaging staggering numbers. At 11.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per night, he's classified as a steady rotation player.
He's valuable to just about everything Milwaukee does on both ends of the floor, though, which is why Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey referred to him as "the new Shane Battier," according to Salt City Hoops' Andy Larsen.
Not only is the 23-year-old shooting 41.1 percent from three, but he's defending both forward spots at a high level.
According to 82games.com, Middleton is holding opposing small forwards to a player efficiency rating of 10.9 and power forwards to a PER of 13.7. The league average in that department is 15.0.
A burgeoning three-and-D threat who's quietly developing a steady post game, Middleton should command plenty of buzz this summer when he becomes a restricted free agent.
Daryl Morey Acknowledges Houston Would Be Nowhere Without James Harden
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This may shock you, so I hope you're sitting down: The Houston Rockets are way, way better with James Harden on the floor.
Don't take my word for it, either. General manager Daryl Morey admitted as much Friday afternoon.
"Take @JHarden13 off our team and we have nothing," Morey said, according to the Sloan Sports Conference Twitter account. "We'd be nowhere. I like to bring up that deal whenever I can."
He's not kidding.
According to NBA.com, Houston's offense is 14.4 points better per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor. That means that when he is on the bench, the Rockets produce like the NBA's worst offense—the Philadelphia 76ers.
That drop-off is so steep that it's hard not to view him as the top dog in a fierce MVP race. Comparatively, the Golden State Warriors offense is 13 points better per 100 possessions with Stephen Curry on the floor, while the Cleveland Cavaliers offense is 11.8 points better with LeBron James active.
MVP debates shouldn't hinge on those on/off numbers, but they're certainly helpful when considering the impact each player has on his team's success.
Live NBA Action May Be Coming to Your Fingertips
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Perhaps the most revelatory conversation from Friday's action came during a back-and-forth with NBA commissioner Adam Silver.
Speaking on "The Future of Sports and Media" panel, Silver went in-depth regarding the league's efforts to put its product in the hands of more consumers through social media channels.
"We want to get to a point where highlights from a Twitter feed lead to purchase of a live game," Silver said, according to the Sloan Sports Conference Twitter account.
Essentially, Silver touched on the idea of fans being able to purchase games a la carte, meaning that they wouldn't need to opt into a season's worth of games with one lump-sum charge up front.
Instead, fans would theoretically be able to read about action on their Twitter feeds and then opt into a one-time charge (think of pay-per-view or on-demand models used by cable providers) to watch a game from the mobile device of their choice.
The Spurs Are Still the NBA's Analytical Gold Standard
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Analytically, the San Antonio Spurs are in a class of their own.
That's why they were awarded the 2015 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference award for "Best Analytics Organization."
However, it's dangerous to conflate the Spurs' status as the NBA's best analytical organization with a total dependency on numbers and advanced metrics. As general manager R.C. Buford told the audience, according to ESPN TrueHoop's Mason Ginsberg, "team values trump all performance evaluation metrics."
By discovering a healthy balance that uses numbers to inform tactical decision-making, the Spurs have uncovered the analytical holy grail.
Project Spurs' Jeff Garcia recently provided a breakdown of how San Antonio proceeds from an analytics standpoint:
"Buford, one of the most popular speakers at Sloan, described their process to me last week: He gets the numbers that his analytic people develop. The ones he sees merit in, he passes along to Pop, who, he notes, is 'old school.' This, of course, is a polite phrase for someone regarded as a T-Rex by sideline reporters.
In other words, the Spurs use analytics judiciously but hardly exclusively or predominantly, like most NBA teams. The only reason they’re in the same category with organizations run by stat guys like Houston and Oklahoma City is that analytics claim them.
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San Antonio's designation as the foremost authority on analytical matters is important for one big reason: It proves numbers aren't the end-all and be-all of organizational procedure.
Put simply, using numbers in a vacuum can be harmful. But when teams turn to them as a way to confirm what the tape shows, it can divulge fascinating new trends and information that would otherwise be unobtainable.
All quotes retrieved from Sloan Sports Analytics Conference YouTube channel unless noted otherwise. All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
