Steven Jackson's Release Opens Up Falcons Offense for Explosive Devonta Freeman

If someone created the 4 Immutable Laws of NFL Running Back Value right now, I think they'd go a little something like this: 

1) Be on your rookie contract.
2) Be good enough as a receiver or blocker to justify being in on passing downs, where most of the current NFL game is played.
3) If you don't meet the criteria for either 1 or 2, at least have the decency to be Marshawn Lynch. Or at least be Lynch-esque.
4) If you don't meet the criteria for 1, 2 or 3, prepare for minimum salary offers and post-career plans. 

The attrition of the running back position is moving so fast that even very good running backs are finding it hard to pick up a job once the odometer hits a certain point. Steven Jackson was one of the few backs able to create that situation, as he moved to Atlanta after nine years in St. Louis on fairly cheap terms. Two years later, after his age-31 season, the Falcons released him before free agency. 

The Falcons were able to do this largely because they drafted Devonta Freeman in the fourth round last year. Freeman, unlike Jackson, can check the first two boxes of our invented laws. 

Jackson's release leaves the Atlanta depth chart in, to be polite, what I'll call a "state of flux." Jacquizz Rodgers is a free agent. Antone Smith is a free agent. The NFL, thankfully, doesn't play games in March. (Don't give Roger Goodell an opening, though.) But if they did, Freeman's only backups would be UDFAs.

This will almost certainly change given the number of good running backs clogging free agency and the draft. The Falcons, like all teams, will create a committee at the position. But Freeman has the skills to be the lead chair of that committee, and there should be optimism about his performance and role in fantasy football circles.

"

Thomas Dimitroff was asked if @devontafreeman could be a full-time back in the new scheme...He answered in 3 words: http://t.co/gZ0WdaEvHi

— Reid Ferrin (@FalconsRFerrin) February 21, 2015"

Freeman was the 11th-ranked back of the 2014 class in the eyes of Rookie Scouting Portfolio's Matt Waldman. With the Falcons bringing in Kyle Shanahan from Cleveland to be their offensive coordinator, you can expect a focus on the zone-blocking scheme. Freeman fits in well with this philosophy, as this RSP excerpt states:

"

He can read the second level of a defense and “run with his eyes.” He has the maturity to get down hill and he sees penetration into the backfield well enough to do what's necessary to avoid contact and still stay the course.

...

He begins plays with patience to press and cut on zone plays as well as setting up gap plays with a similar mentality. His vision is solid in terms of seeing the second level of the defense, but sometimes he'll cut back into traffic and doesn’t show the peripheral vision you want to see when making decisions.

"

Freeman, like all Atlanta backs, struggled to deal with the fact that his offensive line was made out of discarded sandwiches and, worse, Gabe Carimi. The actual on-field running was not incredibly productive by empirical measures. 

Player	Snap Percentage	DYAR (Rk)	DVOA (Rk)	Receiving DVOA (Rk)
Steven Jackson	38.9%	70 (19)	-0.2% (19)	-0.5% (26)
Jacquizz Rodgers	32.4%	-6 (n/a)	-11.2% (n/a)	-6.0% (33)
Antone Smith	8.6%	35 (n/a)	27.3% (n/a)	91.4% (n/a)
Devonta Freeman	21.6%	-37 (n/a)	-22.7% (n/a)	3.9% (20)

But given recent research into the idea that yards per carry is, statistically speaking, a crapshoot. What matters more for Freeman's future is that he looks likely to grab hold of the passing-down snaps that went to Rodgers last season. Even if the Falcons grab a member of this vaunted rookie back class, a rookie would be worked in slowly. Freeman has managed to be both young and more experienced than his likely field. Watching the rest of Freeman's competition hit the streets would be like if a grad student woke up tomorrow as a professor with tenure. 

If we project Freeman to take Rodgers' snaps and reception opportunities, and say that he'll even get just 30 percent of the snaps in the lead-back role, he suddenly becomes a player guaranteed to get a high workload. He could be in line for 300 touches, which is roughly what Washington back Alfred Morris got last season, before we even take into account Freeman's chances of sticking as the lead back.

Freeman is the next in the line of Shane Vereen-model backs: running backs that can match up on inside linebackers and make them look silly. He may be too small to take on a franchise-back role over the long haul, but if Atlanta prioritizes fixing its 32nd-ranked DVOA defense, they may not have a choice but to hand him the keys this season. 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.