Burning Questions for NFL's Tag Deadline

It's put-up or shut-up time.

On March 2, the deadline arrives for NFL teams to assign the franchise or transition tags to players. It's a double-edged sword. Sure, the franchise tag can guarantee a player won't depart in free agency, but it does so at a hefty cost.

Monday's deadline leaves teams one more weekend to attempt to negotiate a long-term deal, although those negotiations can continue afterward. Then it's decision time.

To tag or not to tag—that is the question.

With that in mind and with the sands running out of the hourglass, here's a look at the latest on star NFL players for whom the franchise (or transition) tag is in play in 2015.

Houston, We Have a Problem

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The Kansas City Chiefs' problem with outside linebacker Justin Houston isn't necessarily what to do with him.

After leading the NFL with 22 sacks last season, the Chiefs aren't about to let him just stroll on out the door. Not at 26 years old.

General manager John Dorsey admitted as much to Eddie Borsilli of SiriusXM Radio at this week's combine, stating that "Justin Houston is a Chief, I don't foresee him going anywhere."

However, the Chiefs only have about $6.6 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. While agreeing to terms with Houston on a cap-friendly long-term deal could help in that regard, tagging him at $13 million and change for 2015 will mean the team will need to make cuts just to get under the cap by March 10.

Still, even with the tough choices that will come with it, Grantland's Robert Mays thinks the franchise tag is the smart play for the Chiefs here:

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With Alex Smith’s new contract kicking in, the Chiefs have a little less than $5 million in cap space, and Houston is probably looking at a deal that’ll earn him an annual salary somewhere around the $14.3 million the Rams are giving Robert Quinn. Sacks never tell the whole story with pass-rushers, but Houston’s third-straight year finishing with double digits — he had 22 — will have him looking for a deal that comes close to setting the pace at the edge-rusher spot. The Chiefs have a few potential moves to free up room — it’d be surprising to see Dwayne Bowe still on the roster with his $14 million cap figure, and there are a few other, smaller cuts available — but franchising Houston seems like the shrewdest choice.

"

As Sean Keeler of Fox Sports Kansas City points out, that will probably mean bidding adieu to more than one veteran player:

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The Chiefs could open up $9 million by cutting ties before June 1 with outside linebacker/Houston tag-team partner Tamba Hali, who will be turning 32 in November; $5.45 million by doing the same with safety Eric Berry; $5.25 million with linebacker Derrick Johnson; $5 million with wideout Dwayne Bowe; $4 million with defensive end Mike Devito; $3.8 million with backup quarterback Chase Daniel; $2.7 million with linebacker Joe Mays; and $1.959 million with tight end Anthony Fasano.

"

Houston's reps spoke with Dorsey both at the combine and January's Senior Bowl, and there's always a chance they will work out an 11th-hour deal, but as things stand, it appears the Chiefs are going to have some salary scrambling to do next week.

The Dynamic Dallas Duo Dilemma

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The Dallas Cowboys won their first NFC East title since 2009 a year ago, due in no small part to the exploits of wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back DeMarco Murray.

Both were wildly productive in 2014. Both are in the prime of their careers. And both are about to hit free agency.

And Dallas may only have the resources to keep one.

With only about $16.5 million in cap space and only one franchise tag to split among two players, the Cowboys face a decision within a decision.

Reports had indicated that the Cowboys were much more inclined to tag Bryant than Murray, but there's been a new development that throws everything into disarray.

As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reports, rumors have picked up steam in recent weeks that a video exists—a video of Bryant doing "something he shouldn't be doing."

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With the window for applying the franchise tag open and free agency approaching and the Cowboys and Bryant unable to work out a long-term deal and many wondering whether the team’s unwillingness to commit significant guaranteed money flows from off-field concerns, the simmer was starting to build toward a boil.  During an appearance last Friday with 105.3 The Fan in Dallas, hosts Shan Shariff and RJ Choppy told me they’d heard from two different people that the Cowboys have a specific concern about Bryant.  And I blurted out something about the rumors regarding the video that may or may not exist.

I was careful to point out that it’s not known whether the video exists, explaining that reporters covering the NFL had been trying for months to find the video.  Appearing Monday on ESPN 1000 in Chicago, ESPN’s Adam Schefter confirmed that.

Asked about the rumors of a Dez Bryant video, Schefter said (measuring his words very carefully) that he has heard about the video and that he knows what’s on it.

“I’ve been working on this since September,” Schefter said.  “There’s a lot involved.”

Schefter also said he doesn’t know whether the video will come out.

“It’s taken up a lot of my time this season,” Schefter added, explaining that what he’s been working on isn’t ready and may never be.

"

Now, it's important to note that at this point the rumors of the "Bryant video" are just that—rumors.

As Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports, police were summoned to a Walmart parking lot back in 2011 for an incident allegedly involving Bryant, but after investigating, police determined "that there was no offense" and "all parties were advised they were free to go."

Still, where there's smoke there's sometimes fire, and just rumors may be enough to give the Cowboys serious pause about handing Bryant a fat long-term deal, especially given the mercurial wideout's past.

Not so much pause that they're going to let a player who just led the NFL in touchdown catches just walk out the door, though. So in effect, that news may make it more likely that the Cowboys play it safe and just tag Bryant for 2015.

He has made it clear that he doesn't want the tag, and as TMZ (yes, TMZ) reports, Bryant tweeted that he thinks there may be something fishy going on:

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Just quit with the b.s. … It’s clear as day what's going on… I might need to do an exclusive interview about my life these past 5 years since the world is destined to know.

I use to let people take advantage of my life now that I’m no longer allowing that to happen it seems to be a problem… I’m not ashamed of none of my past incidents because that’s what made me who I am today.

"

Meanwhile, there's been next to no news regarding Murray, making it more and more likely that the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year is going to hit free agency on March 10.

Sure, Jerry Jones told Samantha Hyde of Fox Sports Southwest that the Cowboys want Murray to be a "Cowboy for life."

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There's no question that Murray is an outstanding football player in my mind. Our wish is to work something out, and we're going to strive to do that to the extent that we can. There's some unique circumstances here. He won (offensive player of the year). We had the top rushing game, so relative to values, that creates some things that wouldn't be there had we not had some of the success that we've had.

"

However, the reality is that there's only so much cap space to go around, and tagging Bryant would use up the majority of it.

Finding enough room to get Murray under contract as well before March 10 would take some serious salary shenanigans, even by the standards of Jerry "Hide the Cap Hit" Jones.

Thomas Twin Troubles

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OK, so wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas aren't actually twins. In fact, they aren't even related.

I was being witty. Trying, anyway.

Much like the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos have a potentially difficult decision to make over the next several days.

Two players. One franchise tag. And limited cap space to work with.

The Broncos are doing what they can to free up some added wiggle room, According to Mike Klis of The Denver Post, the team is working to restructure quarterback Peyton Manning's contract in an effort to create more cap room.

Klis also writes that the team has a plan in place for that cabbage:

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The Broncos are about $26 million under their projected $148 million salary cap payroll (including a $5 million rollover from last season), but that doesn't include the projected $12.8 million salary Demaryius Thomas will get upon receiving the franchise tag on Monday. The team also has up to six restricted free agents (including Brandon Marshall) who must be tendered, which would take up to $6 million of budget room. And the team figures to look at several free agents who are entering their prime when the market opens March 10.

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Of course, using the tag on Demaryius means that Julius will hit the open market if the team can't work out an extension in the next week or so.

After he caught 12 touchdown passes even in an injury-marred 2014 season, losing Julius would be a big blow for the team.

It appears, however, to be a blow the Broncos are willing to absorb, at least if what his agent told Klis is any indication:

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The Broncos came to me, we tried to get it done, it didn't work. Does Julius love Denver? Yes. Does Julius love the fans there? No question. Does he love the organization and the community? Look at what he does for kids in that town.

But for some reason people are trying to tear him down. In my opinion what they're doing by tearing him down is pushing him away.

"

Granted, some of that could be nothing more than an agent posturing for the media. However, no talks are scheduled between player and team, so it appears the chances of a last-minute extension aren't especially good.

Courting McCourty

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In a recent piece for Grantland, Robert Mays broke down many of the franchise-tag decisions facing NFL teams into several categories. The second of those categories was "you may not have a choice."

It comes as no shock that Denver's Demaryius Thomas was one of the players in that category, but many casual fans would probably be surprised to know that the second name on that list was New England Patriots free safety Devin McCourty:

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Only tight end has a smaller franchise number than safety’s $9.6 million, and the Patriots shouldn’t hesitate to bring McCourty back at that price if they can’t work out a long-term deal while also figuring out what to do with Darrelle Revis and Vince Wilfork. McCourty has been vital to the Patriots defense since making the move to safety early in his career, emerging as one of the more reliable back-end defenders in the entire league. With the deals Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd hauled in last offseason, it feels like McCourty would be able to land a sizable number if he ended up hitting free agency, but either with the tag or with a long-term deal, I’m guessing we never find out.

"

Mays is spot-on here. McCourty has quietly become one of the league's best free safeties. In 2014, he graded out eighth among all NFL safeties, per Pro Football Focus. The season before that, he ranked first.

McCourty is well-aware that he's likely to get tagged, and while many players have publicly bristled at the idea, he told Doug Kyed of NESN that he isn't losing sleep over it:

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I’ve kind of broken it down. I guess the worst-case scenario would be, I’d be franchised and come back to play for another year here. For me, that’s no reason to stress. I love it here. The franchise tag is player-friendly now, it’s a good number, so there’s no reason really for me to be stressed. If I hit free agency, I hope there’s some teams that will want me to play there, so hopefully that goes over well, and it’s still exciting.

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No shortage of NFL teams would be interested in McCourty should he hit the open market, but to date there's been zero indication that's going to happen.

You Down with JPP?

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There may well not be a player on this list who it makes more sense to franchise-tag than New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.

Yes, at only 26 years old, Pierre-Paul is in the prime of his career. He's coming off a 12.5-sack season, the second time in his career that he has hit double digits in that regard.

However, after a dominant 2011 season, Pierre-Paul struggled with injuries in both 2012 and 2013. Even his 2014 season got off to a woefully slow start before he racked up nine sacks over the season's last five games.

When Pierre-Paul is "on," he's worth every bit of the six-year, $66 million deal Robert Quinn of the St. Louis Rams signed last year.

The problem is that Pierre-Paul has been "off" more than "on" the past few seasons, so it's understandable that the Giants are leery of handing Pierre-Paul a long-term deal.

That puts the franchise tag very much in play. In fact, given that ESPN.com's Dan Graziano reports the two sides haven't really even talked recently, the tag is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion:

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A source familiar with the discussions said the expectation on both sides is the Giants will designate Pierre-Paul as their franchise player sometime between now and the March 2 deadline for doing so. That wouldn't preclude a long-term deal, but it would serve the purpose of keeping Pierre-Paul off the open market when free agency begins March 10. The Giants want Pierre-Paul back, and with the salary cap expected to rise into the mid-$140 millions, they have plenty of room to keep him on a one-year franchise tender salary that could be as much as $15 million.

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A tag of $15 million is no small chunk of change, but in many respects it's wise for the Giants to buy themselves another year with which to discern who the "real" Pierre-Paul is.

Gentlemen, Grab Your Checkbooks

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As we've already mentioned, there's quite the crop of potential free agents about to hit the open market.

If they hit the market, that is.

It appears that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are set to get tagged, but the same can't be said about Green Bay's Randall Cobb.

As Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports reports, not only do the Packers have no intention of franchise-tagging Cobb, but they also aren't keen on their chances of retaining him at all:

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The Packers know that Cobb's market is likely to get out of hand and have focused on keeping other free agents. They continue to discuss a new deal with the agent for tackle Bryan Bulaga, sources said, and I bet they get their man in the end. Same with nose tackle Letroy Guion. I'd be pretty surprised if they did not re-sign him -- his legal issues may be resolved shortly -- and especially with fellow defensive lineman BJ Raji a free agent. Guion did a very nice job thrust into the starting role last season, and the Packers are very good about keeping their value free agents.

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It's easy to see why the Packers are fearful that Cobb's market will snowball. The four-year veteran topped 1,200 receiving yards a year ago, and he is all of 24 years old.

It's been speculated that Cobb is seeking a long-term deal that will pay him in the neighborhood of $9 million a season. According to Will Brinson of CBS Sports, that's likely too rich for Green Bay's blood, and the franchise tag definitely is:

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The price of the wide receiver franchise tag ($12.71 million) is pretty steep, especially when you consider Packers GM Ted Thompson's ability to procure stud wideouts in the second round (Cobb, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and he also landed James Jones in the third). No doubt the Packers love Cobb as a person and as a player, but it's possible he costs too much for their small-market sensibilities.

This is particularly true with Cobb slated to be the top wideout in free agency this offseason. The Broncos and Cowboys made it clear they won't let Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, their respective No. 1's, hit free agency via the franchise tag. That leaves Cobb as the cream of the crop in this class.

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The Packers may be wary of paying Cobb that kind of money, but with cap-flush teams like the Oakland Raiders already being linked to Cobb, per ESPN's Bill Williamson (h/t SI.com), you can bet someone is going to pony up.

Mulling Maclin

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The Green Bay Packers aren't the only team on the fence about using the franchise tag on a wide receiver.

As Grantland's Robert Mays reported, the Philadelphia Eagles are in a similar boat, with Jeremy Maclin set to hit it big after gambling on a one-year "prove it" deal.

Maclin held up his end, catching 85 passes for more than 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now, it's Philly's turn:

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Maclin was easily going to be the most productive receiver in the Philadelphia offense next year, and even with Jordan Matthews likely to see more action in his second season, no receiver in football had a higher percentage of his snaps come from the slot than Matthews. Letting Maclin go would leave the Eagles with a massive void at their outside-receiver spots, but handing him the $13 million the tag would carry after just a single year of high-level production is its own risk.

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According to Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Eagles are working toward being able to avoid this decision altogether:

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Maclin should be the No. 1 priority for the Eagles before free agency starts on March 10. They lose him and they’re really going to have to pay if they want to sign a free agent of comparable skill -- if there is one remaining. It shouldn’t come to that. Maclin wants to stay, the Eagles want him, and last I heard they weren’t significantly far apart.

"

And that makes this weekend a "two-minute warning" of sorts for the Eagles. It's crunch time. They have just under $23.5 million in cap space, per Over the Cap, so they can (in theory) afford to tag Maclin.

Of course, that tag would wipe out over half that room.

But it beats the alternative of losing Maclin altogether, and much like Cobb, if Maclin hits the open market, the bidding could get pretty wacky pretty quickly.

If Maclin really does want to stay in the City of Brotherly Love, it's in everyone's best interest to finalize a long-term deal over the weekend.

There Are Tags, and Then There Are TAGS

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Would they dare do it?

Would the Detroit Lions dare apply the franchise tag to defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in 2015?

In a vacuum, it makes sense. Suh is arguably the best 3-technique defensive tackle in the National Football League, and he's a key part of a Lions defense that ranked fourth in the league a year ago.

At least, it makes sense until you consider how much it would cost the Lions to tag Suh: $26.8 million—just for 2015.

Despite that staggering number, Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew insisted to Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk in January that the Lions hadn't ruled out tagging Suh:

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There aren’t too many people who think that the Lions are going to use the franchise tag to keep defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh from becoming an unrestricted free agent because it would cost them $26 million to do so for the 2015 season.

That kind of outlay alongside big numbers for quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Calvin Johnson would severely limit the team’s ability to address needs at other spots on the roster, but General Manager Martin Mayhew wasn’t willing to rule it out on Thursday. Speaking to reporters, Mayhew said that he wants Suh to remain on the team and all options were open regarding Suh, including using the franchise tag, although he stopped short of saying that the team would do whatever it takes to keep Suh in town.

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That's all well and good, but there's a rather large obstacle involved with the Lions tagging Suh, even if the team can somehow convince itself $27 million isn't a ridiculous number to pay a defensive lineman for one season.

According to Over the Cap, the Lions only have $18 million and change in cap space.

Now, I'm no mathematician, but I'm pretty sure that 18 minus 26 equals Suh not getting tagged by Monday.

That $26.8 million (guaranteed) would have looked good in Suh's checking account, but when the dust settles, chances are the 28-year-old isn't going to be hurting financially.

Not by a long shot.

How Should the Buffalo Bills Hughes Their Cap Space?

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Per Over the Cap, the Buffalo Bills enter 2015 with about $31 million in cap space. In the AFC East, only the New York Jets have more.

The Bills also have some decisions to make in free agency, and while it appears the team will let running back C.J. Spiller test the market, the messages have been more mixed where defensive end Jerry Hughes is concerned.

As Ross Jones of Fox Sports reports, new Bills head coach Rex Ryan made it clear that he'd like to see Hughes, who has 10 sacks in each of his two seasons in Buffalo, back with the Bills in 2015:

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I absolutely envision that. I think Jerry is an outstanding player. The last two years I've been against him and he's tremendous. I hope he's still a Buffalo Bill moving forward. Sometimes things happen where that might not be a possibility, but I believe he's a great player and I hope he's a Buffalo Bill for a long time.

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Hughes told SiriusXM NFL Radio (via Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk) that he'd also like to remain with the Bills, although the 26-year-old admitted that he's not crazy about the idea of receiving the franchise tag.

“I wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed,” Hughes said. “I do want [a long-term deal], but the pay increase is also a huge added bonus. It’s kind of a mixed emotions between both.”

It's a tricky spot for the Bills. A franchise tag for Hughes would run upwards of $15 million, which would take up a lot of the free-agent resources for a Bills team with holes to fill.

However, a 26-year-old pass-rusher with Hughes' recent track record of productivity is going to be in high demand on the open market. The fact that Hughes accomplished it playing in both a 3-4 and 4-3 front only adds to that value.

If the Bills pass on tagging Hughes, there's a real chance they won't get him back.

Decisions, decisions.