Chargers Must Extend Philip Rivers but Start Planning for Future Without Him

As quarterback Philip Rivers enters the final year of the six-year deal he signed back in 2009, the San Diego Chargers must simultaneously try to re-sign him and plan for a future without him. Right now, the Chargers have no heir apparent—that means they have no leverage and no exit plan.  

In this era where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are playing into their late thirties, it may seem like there is no rush. It may seem like Rivers has plenty of good football left in his body, and he probably does.

The problem is that we don’t know for sure how long Rivers will continue to be an effective quarterback. What we do know is that age is a factor in performance, and Rivers is now on the downside of his career. The arrow is pointing down at a time when Rivers is getting more expensive, which will only make it harder for the Chargers to put the pieces around him so the team can be successful.

As the Chargers explore stadium options, it’s quite likely that Rivers will no longer be an effective quarterback by the time any new building opens in San Diego or Los Angeles. The Chargers will have to transition at some point before then to someone else.

Performance Versus Age

Thanks to the works of many smart football analysts, we have a good idea how quarterbacks age. According to Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, franchise quarterbacks start a shallow decline at age 29.

The consensus seems to be that the peak for most quarterbacks is somewhere between 27 and 29. Burke, Neil Paine of FootballPerspective.com and Chase Stuart of FootballPerspective.com came to similar conclusions.

Burke’s conclusion was that the performance of quarterbacks falls of a cliff one day, and we never see it coming. The performance of older quarterbacks is more volatile, and they tend to retire after a down year.

Rivers’ curve is just as you might expect. He peaked between 27 and 29 followed by a sharp decline at 30 and 31. His rebound at 32 was an expected correction, and last year, his performance was more in line with the overall curve.   

Data via Pro-Football-Reference.com

Once a quarterback falls below 6.00 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), he ceases to be a useful one. This the Alex Smith-level of performance.   

On average, Rivers has declined 0.33 ANY/A per year since he was 29. He’s also averaging 6.58 ANY/A over the last four years. Last year, he was at 6.45 ANY/A. As a rough estimate, that means Rivers will be effective for about two more years, and maybe one or two more depending on the volatility of his performances.

With one year left on his deal, the Chargers should forgo the lucrative long-term contract extension until after 2015. They could even buy themselves another year in 2016 with the franchise tag to see if his performance justifies the big deal, but that causes other issues.

There’s not much precedent for a team to let its franchise quarterback play on the franchise tag, and the guaranteed value is so high that it’s not practical. Still, absent a team-friendly structure that would enable them to get out of the deal after a couple years, it may actually be the best option to wait until the last minute to re-sign him—using the franchise tag as the last resort to keep him.

Since there is a huge cost involved in extending Rivers’ contract, the Chargers should use their brains and not their hearts in this situation. The New England Patriots aren’t sentimental and have been the most consistently good team in the league for years now. The Chargers would be wise to follow their example, but it’s also worth noting the Patriots gave Tom Brady a big deal at age 33.

Big-Money Contracts

The Chargers and Rivers have yet to discuss a contract extension, according to Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com, but Rivers doesn't see a move to Los Angeles as a deterrent. The team clearly wants and needs him at this point. 

Over the last two years, Rivers has been the fifth-best quarterback in the league behind Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in ANY/A. Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady are the next grouping.

Not including Sam Bradford’s out-of-whack rookie deal, Rivers’ last deal still ranks fifth among veterans in total guaranteed money and seventh in average guarantee per year. Unfortunately for the Chargers, there has been escalation in recent years.

The average total value of the top-five quarterback contracts is $115.9 million. The top-five contracts average $9.9 million in guaranteed money per year. Those are all good starting points when looking at his next contract, should the Chargers decide to go that route before next season.

With about an eight percent increase in the salary cap, that puts Rivers’ next deal around $20 million per year with an average of $9 million guaranteed per year. That’s if they re-sign him to an extension this year before the cap rises further and new quarterback contracts for players like Ben Roethlisberger raise the bar.

Although there is a cost for waiting, it may be in the Chargers' best interest to see how Rivers performs in 2015. If his production continues to decline, that may affect the negotiations. If he plays well, the Chargers can feel comfortable giving him a big deal. Since he’ll be a year older, they should be able to create an out earlier in the deal.

Replacing Rivers

Replacing a quarterback like Rivers isn’t easy, but the Chargers need to start now. The easiest way to get a talent like Rivers is to be bad at the right time and draft one high in the first round. Absent that situation, the Chargers will have to try to find value and develop a player who eventually can take over.

Development takes time, so the Chargers don’t have much time to waste. They need to find a player to develop soon, probably through the draft.

The only other quarterbacks on the roster are nine-year veteran Kellen Clemens and Brad Sorensen. Clemens is obviously out of the question, and Sorensen will be 27 in March. Neither is what the Chargers should be looking for in a developmental quarterback.

Rivers is also a good mentor and has worked with first-round draft prospect Marcus Mariota this offseason. Rivers recently talked about the experience on The Mighty 1090 in San Diego:

"

I enjoy it. With this young wave of quarterbacks and you're kind of one of the older guys, I feel like it's something good for us, to give back a little bit and be around a young guy like that. I was impressed. He's an impressive guy.

"

Starting in the third round, it makes a lot of sense for the Chargers to start considering taking a quarterback. While they have other needs, waiting too long to grab one only ensures that you don’t get one. Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty and Sean Mannion are a couple names that could be available.

If the development goes well, that changes what the Chargers might want to do with Rivers. Right now, he’s a good option, but he’s also their only option. That’s fine now, but by the end of the deal, the Chargers may be singing a different tune if they don’t plan.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com. Salary data via OverTheCap.com.