NCAA Tournament 2015: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 16

Nothing on the NCAA tournament bubble happens in a vacuum.

That's the primary fact to keep in mind at this point in the season. Everyone wants to ask, "What does (insert favorite team) need to do to make the tournament?" However, it doesn't work that way. There are dozens of other teams in play, and there's no telling whether 10 teams are going to get red-hot or ice cold, completely changing the tournament cutline.

Let's use Stanford as an example, as the Cardinal are either last four in or first four out in most brackets at the moment.

They still play Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State and Arizona. A 3-1 finish before the Pac-12 tournament would probably put them safely in the field, but it's not a guarantee—nor is it a guarantee that a 2-2 record would eliminate them from consideration. It all depends on what the rest of the country does.

Long story short, it's a moving target for teams on the bubble, and they would simply be best served winning every remaining game.

Based on games since the last update (Feb. 13) and how they have changed where these teams or groups of teams stand in the national hierarchy, we've come up with five that have most improved their stock and five that evidently really don't want to play in the tournament.

Please note that this is not meant to be a full list of teams currently on the bubble. The bubble is shrinking on an almost daily basis, but at least 40 teams are neither locks for the NCAA tournament nor hopelessly eliminated from it.

Rather, these teams are the biggest risers and fallers over the course of the past two weeks. So if you can't find your favorite team, that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't smack-dab on the bubble. What it means is it simply hasn't done much to change its status in the past 12 days.

RPI and SOS numbers on the following slides are courtesy of ESPN.com and are current through the start of play on Wednesday, Feb. 25. Win-loss records are current through the start of play on Thursday, Feb. 26.

Stock Up: North Carolina State

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 17-11, RPI: 38, SOS: 2

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Duke, at Louisville, at North Carolina

Bad Losses: at Wake Forest

Since Last Update: W 74-65 at Louisville; W 69-53 vs. Virginia Tech; W 58-46 at North Carolina

Usually at this point in the season, bubble teams with 11 losses are the ones playing their way out of the tournament field—as we'll see on the next slide—but the Wolfpack evidently saved their best for late February.

What's frustrating, though, is everything that happened between their marquee wins.

After beating Duke by a dozen points, NC State lost six of its next eight, including games against Clemson, Wake Forest and Miami. But on the road against teams who have spent much of the season projected for a No. 3 seed, the Wolfpack then looked just as dominant as they did against the Blue Devils.

Cat Barber and BeeJay Anya were a lethal inside-outside duo against Louisville and North Carolina. Barber had 36 points and eight assists, while Anya recorded 13 points, 16 rebounds and nine blocks.

"(Barber has) been their leading scorer for the past four or five games, so he's playing with more confidence and he's getting to the rim better," North Carolina's Marcus Paige said after Tuesday's game. "We needed to keep him out of the lane, but he was doing a good job of attacking us. He's always been capable, but now he's just being more aggressive."

The win over Louisville put them back in the projected field, but the win over North Carolina may have sealed the deal. As long as they can avoid disaster against Boston College, Clemson and Syracuse between now and the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack will be headed back to the NCAA tournament for a fourth consecutive season.

Stock Down: Texas Longhorns

Eric Gay/Associated Press

By the Numbers: 17-11, RPI: 41, SOS: 13

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. West Virginia

Bad Losses: None

Since Last Update: W 56-41 vs. Texas Tech; L 69-71 at Oklahoma; L 77-85 vs. Iowa State; L 64-71 at West Virginia

About a month ago, I wrote about Texas looking like a team that could end up missing the tournament, and even I didn't see this kind of collapse coming.

After Tuesday night's loss to West Virginia, the Longhorns have now dropped seven of their last 10—and their only wins in the past five-plus weeks have come against the three Big 12 teams with virtually no hope of making the tournament.

In fact, Texas is now 1-10 against teams comfortably in the projected field and 1-1 against bubble teams (beat Iowa, lost to Stanford).

By the way, TCU is 17-11 with two quality wins (at Ole Miss, vs. Oklahoma State) and only one somewhat poor loss (at Kansas State), and the Horned Frogs aren't even close to the bubble. So if you think Texas is going to simply sneak in because of all those "quality losses," think again.

The Longhorns almost certainly need to win two of their three remaining games (at Kansas, vs. Baylor and vs. Kansas State) in order to still be in the projected field at the start of the Big 12 tournament.

Stock Up: St. John's

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 19-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 37 

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Providence, at Providence

Bad Losses: at DePaul, at Creighton

Since Last Update: W 78-70 at Xavier, L 57-79 at Georgetown, W 85-72 vs. Seton Hall, W 58-57 vs. Xavier

Does anyone else remember when ESPN's Joe Lunardi wrote the eulogy for St. John's not even a full month ago?

After the Johnnies ended up on the wrong side of Mike Krzyzewski's 1,000th career win, Joey Brackets wrote, "It was clear to me Sunday as Duke sprinted past the Red Storm that (Steve Lavin's) team is a tease. And that Selection Sunday isn't going to end well for the Johnnies."

They even proceeded to lose to Creighton three days later. Surely, this team was dead and buried, right?

As it turns out, even Lunardi didn't know just how weak the bubble was going to be this year. And he certainly didn't realize the Red Storm were going to right the ship by winning six of their last eight games, including the home win over Providence and a sweep of Xavier.

Sir'Dominic Pointer is largely to thank for their resurgence, because he has been playing out of his mind for the past 11 games, averaging 17.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 2.7 assists and 1.9 steals since Jan. 21.

Stock Down: Ohio State

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 19-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 93

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Maryland

Bad Losses: None

Since Last Update: L 56-59 at Michigan State; L 57-64 at Michigan

This seems like an appropriate time for a friendly reminder that "Stock Down" doesn't necessarily mean a team has fallen out of the projected field. In the case of the Buckeyes, their stock is down because they're somewhat on the bubble now, which didn't appear to be the case 11 days ago.

Back-to-back road losses to the Michigan schools—one a blown opportunity, one a bad loss—leave us questioning what this team has actually done to deserve a bid and how bad it would be if Ohio State lost to Nebraska on Thursday night.

The Buckeyes are 3-7 vs. teams in the RPI top 75, and all three of those wins came at home in conference. They took advantage of Indiana without Hanner Mosquera-Perea and capitalized on red-hot shooting against Maryland while the Terrapins were in their minor tailspin.

Outside of that, it's nothing impressive. Home games against High Point and Marquette were their only nonconference RPI top 150 wins, and they were beaten pretty comfortably by Louisville in North Carolina the two times they actually did challenge themselves in the first six weeks of the season.

Ohio State isn't quite in danger yet, but it's definitely trending downward. Slip up at any point in the next 10 days against Nebraska, Purdue or Penn State, and the Buckeyes may have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.

Stock Up: Pittsburgh

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

By the Numbers: 18-10, RPI: 39, SOS: 35

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. North Carolina

Bad Losses: at Hawaii, at Virginia Tech

Since Last Update: W 89-76 vs. North Carolina, L 49-61 at Virginia, W 65-61 at Syracuse, W 71-65 vs. Boston College

It's nice to see that middle tier of ACC teams finally playing like it wants to make the tournament. For far too long, it was Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Louisville as locks and then a bunch of ACC teams very much on the wrong side of the bubble.

But now that those top five teams have started doling out some upsets, North Carolina State is comfortably in the field, and Pittsburgh is well on its way to sneaking into the dance.

The Panthers have won six of their last eight games—including their four best RPI wins of the season. And the two losses during that stretch—at Virginia, at Louisville—are hardly unforgivable.

This still isn't an outstanding resume, but it's getting closer to the cut line by the day.

Their remaining regular-season games are against Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State. None of those games will do much to improve their stock, but win all three to get to 21-10 and things will be looking up for what figures to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the ACC tournament.

One critical footnote on Pittsburgh's bubbly resume: Don't forget that Durand Johnson—who arguably would have been the team's leading scorer—was suspended for the season just hours before it began. And Cameron Wright—the other player many expected to lead the team in scoring—missed the first seven games of the season while recovering from a broken foot.

Exactly how much do we penalize the shorthanded Panthers for losing their third game of the season at Hawaii in a game that tipped off at midnight in their home time zone? We can't completely ignore that bad loss, but if we can "discount" it even a little bit, it helps Pitt's case immensely.

Stock Down: Temple

Jim Cowsert/Associated Press

By the Numbers: 19-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 48

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Kansas

Bad Losses: at Saint Joseph's, vs. UNLV

Since Last Update: W 66-53 vs. East Carolina; L 58-67 at SMU; L 39-55 at Tulsa

Are we sure that 25-point win over Kansas really happened?

Because if it didn't, there's no way this is a tournament-worthy resume. And even if it did happen, this still might be an NIT team.

With the road losses in the past week, Temple has now been swept by both SMU and Tulsa. Throw in the season split with Cincinnati, and the Owls went 1-5 against the three best teams from an American Athletic Conference that may well send just one or two teams to the NCAA tournament.

Outside of the aforementioned outlier against Kansas, the best thing Temple did during the nonconference portion of the season was win a home game against Louisiana Tech, and that's not saying much.

However, darn it if that win over the Jayhawks isn't somehow keeping this team afloat.

The big key for Temple is—or was, at any rate—going to be the eye test. The Owls didn't have Jesse Morgan or Devin Coleman for the first month of the season, and Will Cummings was injured during their three-game losing streak in mid-January. Until this past week, they hadn't been beaten at full strength.

But what does it say that a full-strength Temple was held to 39 points by Tulsa?

Nothing good, that's for sure.

Stock Up: Michigan State

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 19-8, RPI: 27, SOS: 40

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: at Nebraska, vs. Texas Southern

Since Last Update: W 59-56 vs. Ohio State; W 80-67 at Michigan; W 60-53 at Illinois

Last year, the selection committee sent a message to SMU, leaving the Mustangs out of the tournament for facing one of the weakest nonconference schedules in the country.

This year, Michigan State is sending a message to the country that you can comfortably make the tournament without winning a single nonconference game against a team in the RPI top 125. You simply have to look dominant in one of the nation's best conferences.

The Spartans are 10-4 in Big Ten play, scoring all nine of their RPI top 125 wins in the past seven weeks. In fact, three of their five best wins of the season have come in the past 11 days, as they ascended into a three-way tie for second place in the conference by taking care of the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Fighting Illini.

Branden Dawson was an unstoppable force during that three-game stretch, averaging 17.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 2.7 assists.

They aren't quite out of the woods yet, though. They still host Minnesota and Purdue and travel to Wisconsin and Indiana. Two out of four would probably be enough, but why risk it?

Stock Down: Georgia

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 18-9, RPI: 37, SOS: 37

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: vs. Auburn, vs. South Carolina, at South Carolina, at Georgia Tech

Since Last Update: L 68-69 vs. Auburn; L 58-64 vs. South Carolina, W 66-65 at Alabama, W 76-72 at Ole Miss

Even with Wednesday night's win at Ole Miss, Georgia had already assured its spot in the "Stock Down" department. Back-to-back home losses to Auburn and South Carolina tend to have that effect.

You can't really blame one player for two bad losses, but J.J. Frazier's health certainly didn't help matters. He missed the game against South Carolina due to a mild concussion and a fracture to his orbital bone suffered in the previous loss to Auburn. He was also nursing a hairline fracture in his left hand that he had been playing through for two games, according to Seth Emerson of the Ledger-Enquirer.

Even with that poor game against Auburn and literal no-show against South Carolina, Frazier is Georgia's most valuable offensive asset by a country mile. Entering play Wednesday, he was the only player on the roster with an O-rating of 108.0 or higher, and his sat at 125.9.

It's hardly a mystery as to why the Bulldogs didn't look very crisp without him. But those losses still count, and it gives them four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 with no RPI top 25 wins to buoy those anchors.

They do get (at least) one more chance at the ultimate win when they host Kentucky on March 3, but there's a pretty good chance Georgia will need to win that game in order to make the NCAA tournament.

Stock Up: Davidson

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: 20-6, RPI: 53, SOS: 162

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: vs. St. Bonaventure, at Saint Joseph's

Since Last Update: W 77-69 at La Salle; W 65-63 at George Washington; W 76-57 vs. Fordham; W 60-59 at Rhode Island

It's been a great couple of weeks for bubble teams from the state of North Carolina.

We already addressed the colossal wins North Carolina State had, but how about Davidson picking up three road wins against the RPI top 100? As a result, the Wildcats now have six RPI top 100 wins against just six total losses.

They didn't have a single nonconference win against the RPI top 125, but we've already seen in Michigan State's resume that apparently doesn't matter.

Actually, let's keep that comparison going.

Davidson: 0-3 vs. RPI top 25, 1-3 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI top 75, 6-4 vs. RPI top 100, 2 RPI sub-100 losses, 1 RPI sub-150 loss.

Michigan State: 0-4 vs. RPI top 25, 2-5 vs. RPI top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI top 75, 6-6 vs. RPI top 100, 2 RPI-sub 100 losses, 1 RPI-sub 150 loss.

The Spartans have a considerably better RPI and SOS, but that's only because most of their "other" wins came against teams in the 101-150 RPI range while Davidson's came in the 175-250 vicinity, but are those really all that different?

The argument here isn't that Michigan State should miss the tournament, but rather that anyone who has it as a No. 7-8 seed and Davidson outside of the field clearly hasn't done his or her homework.

Stock Down: Bid Thieves

USA TODAY Sports

By the Numbers: Various

RPI Top 25 Wins: Not enough

Bad Losses: Way too many

Since Last Update: Disappointing

In most years, there are at least one or two minor conference teams being mentioned as "on the bubble if they happen to lose in their conference tournament" right around now.

This year? Not so much.

Georgia State was supposed to be that team, but the Panthers have faltered time and again and currently have eight losses. Green Bay was another preseason candidate with outstanding point guard Keifer Sykes, but the Phoenix have lost three of their last seven games to slip into fourth in the in the Horizon League.

Early on in the year, it looked like Conference USA was a surefire multi-bid league, but they've beaten each other into oblivion, and the entire conference can only boast three nonconference RPI top 50 wins.

As a result, there are only three minor conference teams with less than five losses.

UC Davis is 21-4, but all four losses are bad, because the Aggies haven't played a single team in the RPI top 100. Murray State is 24-4 and certainly one of the best looking minor conference teams, but an 18-1 record vs. RPI sub-150 teams is no way to get the selection committee's attention.

Stephen F. Austin probably had the best case for an at-large bid until losing to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Still, the Lumberjacks are 23-4 with only one loss to a team outside the RPI top 35. If anyone is going to pull it off, it's them. However, it's looking extremely unlikely—even with a very soft bubble.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @kerrancejames.