New England Patriots: Latest Free-Agency News and Rumors

With the NFL Scouting Combine in the rearview mirror, free agency now sits as the next major event on the league calendar.  While free agency has always been a bit of an overrated and cost-inefficient way to build a team, this year's particularly deep crop means that some real difference-makers will be changing teams.

Some of those potential game-changers belong to the New England Patriots, whose focus will be on retaining the core of their championship-winning roster.  The Pats don't have much flexibility in their payroll; per Spotrac.com, New England is actually $7.5 million over the current projected cap.

That's not nearly as ominous as it sounds—much of that is tied up in Darrelle Revis' astronomical $25 million placeholder, while the likes of Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Danny Amendola could see contract restructurings to free up more room.  Nonetheless, the Pats will still be stretched to keep all their key players in tow, meaning the front office must make some difficult either/or choices this offseason.

With two weeks until the March 10 signing period opens, whispers continue to trickle in about potential transactions.  Dissecting the latest news and rumors surrounding the Patriots' plans, let's take an early look at how free agency may unfold for New England.

Randy Starks on the Radar?

J Pat Carter/Associated Press

The Patriots haven’t had much pass-rushing depth the past few seasons, particularly along the interior. 2014 first-rounder Dominique Easley may still represent the future solution to that problem, but after a lost rookie season that ended on injured reserve, The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin has his eyes on another veteran who could represent a more immediate solution:

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Mentioned this to @Lobstabred yesterday: 1 potential cap cut I'm monitoring is Miami DL Randy Starks, who I think would be a great fit in NE

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) February 14, 2015"

Indeed, Randy Starks has been one of the more pass-rushing defensive tackles in the league the past few seasons. Starks has finished with just 4.0 or 4.5 sacks in each of the last four seasons, but in 2014, he finished 15th among defensive tackles in Pro Football Focus’ pass-rushing productivity metric. The year before, Starks finished 10th in PFF’s rankings.

But Miami has just $1.8 million in projected cap space and could save $5 million by cutting Starks. Given that the Dolphins are currently spending $77.1 million on defense, second-most in the league, it might make sense to shed Starks and rely more on younger options Earl Mitchell and Jared Odrick.

It might be tempting to view Starks as a potential Vince Wilfork replacement, but the former is more of a 3-technique, while the latter is a two-gapping nose tackle. Still, if Starks is willing to accept a discount to play for a contender, he would bring a track record of recent pass-rushing consistency while also taking the pressure off Easley in his second season.

Dan Williams a Possible Wilfork Replacement?

Unlike Starks, Arizona’s Dan Williams would be an ideal Wilfork substitute. The 27-year-old would certainly eat into much, if not all, of the $6 million in cap savings the Pats would earn by cutting Wilfork, but he would also represent a long-term solution in the middle of the line.

In the embedded video above, Bleacher Report’s Chris Simms argues that Williams is New England’s best free-agent fit. In terms of pure skill set, it’s hard to argue with Simms’ logic. The 6’2”, 327-pound nose tackle is a true two-gapping space eater who ranked seventh among defensive tackles in run-stop percentage last season, according to Pro Football Focus.

The question then turns to financials. Arizona has just $3.4 million in cap space, but the Cardinals figure to stay in the bidding due to a lack of major free agents besides Williams and Antonio Cromartie. Arizona could further free up cap space by cutting veterans Darnell Dockett and Jerraud Powers, which would save about $11.1 million (though Dockett is a respected locker room presence).

Plenty of other teams in need of run support figure to enter in on Williams, who looks like a scheme-versatile player. There isn’t much speculation about what type of contract he may land, but a good starting point could be the five-year, $33 million range. Arthur Jones, Paul Soliai and Linval Joseph all landed contracts in that neighborhood last offseason, so Williams could be expected to follow suit.

That’s obviously stretching things a bit for New England, but it might be a leap worth taking if it does cut Wilfork. Bill Belichick has enjoyed the luxury of building his front seven around an indefatigable anchor over the last decade, and as the Wilfork era nears its end, Williams could represent an excellent long-term replacement.

Shane Vereen Seeking $5 Million Per Year

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Shane Vereen is the latest in the line of effective third-down backs to pass through Foxborough. Unlike Kevin Faulk or Danny Woodhead, however, Vereen is a highly versatile and athletic player who creates mismatches all over the field with his alignments. Because of his age and rare skill set, the 25-year-old could be pricing himself out of New England’s range, per the Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe:

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Vereen is hopeful to land a contract worth at least $5 million per season, according to a source. Now, that's obviously a sign of a player who wants to start high with his negotiations with the realization that the price will drop throughout the back-and-forth with his suitors, but the desire to get paid means he'll almost certainly hit the open market March 10 for the beginning of free agency.

Vereen and the Patriots exchanged proposals last summer, according to the source, but they weren't close enough to strike a deal. It's unclear how much -- if any -- progress they have made this week in Indianapolis.

"

That $5 million per year tagline is probably a bit inflated, as that average annual salary would make Vereen the ninth-highest-paid running back in 2015 (excluding DeMarco Murray, who will probably top that mark). A more realistic contract might lie somewhere between Donald Brown’s three-year, $10.5 million deal and Reggie Bush’s four-year, $16 million pact.

Still, even those modest numbers would far exceed what the Patriots have recently doled out to running backs.

Over the past seven offseasons, the largest contract the Patriots have given to a running back is the two-year, $5 million ($1.5 million guaranteed) that Fred Taylor signed in 2009. New England has also made little effort to retain the likes of Woodhead, LeGarrette Blount or BenJarvus Green-Ellis, none of whom broke the bank with their new employers.

Vereen has explicitly stated a desire to remain with the Patriots, but this report suggests that finances will come first in deciding his next team. I’ll have a piece looking at potential Vereen replacements later this week, as the early signs indicate that player and team agendas aren’t exactly lining up.

Devin McCourty Will Be Back, but at What Price?

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Devin McCourty is almost unquestionably the Patriots’ most important player not under contract for 2015. But there’s never been any serious indication that New England is in danger of losing its All-Pro free safety, with ESPNBoston.com’s Mike Reiss recently reaffirming speculation that McCourty will receive no worse than the franchise tag:

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With a weak safety draft class and a veteran free-agent crop that also isn’t considered deep, free-agent-to-be Devin McCourty finds himself in a good spot. Worst-case scenario is he gets the franchise tag from the Patriots, who have yet to progress toward an extension with him, at around $9.5 million. McCourty signed a five-year, $10 million contract as a rookie in 2010, so he could almost match his previous pay in one year in that worst-case scenario. While he’d surely like more of a long-term commitment, and would likely get one should he hit the open market, the view from here is that McCourty can’t really lose either way from a financial perspective.

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No one is questioning the value of an eminently affordable safety tag, especially given that the Patriots have become a single-high safety defense, making McCourty’s ranginess and instincts absolutely indispensable on the back end. It’s a near-certainty that McCourty will be a Patriot in 2015, and more likely, he and the team will strike a long-term deal this offseason.

That analysis is quickly becoming staid, though, so let’s take a quick moment to look ahead.

For the sake of argument, assume that McCourty receives the six-year, $54 million deal that Jairus Byrd got last offseason, a fair assumption given the similarities in skill set and talent level. Looking ahead to 2016, that would leave the Patriots with already $49 million in cap spending on defense, and that’s not even including a potential long-term deal for Darrelle Revis.

The 2016 season also happens to be when the rookie deals of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins expire. If those three continue to play at Pro Bowl levels, it’s highly impractical that the Pats can keep this defensive core together.

Even if we take a conservative estimate and say that all three sign something in the range of the K.J. Wright’s four-year, $27 million deal, the Pats will still have nearly $70 million in cap commitments—already the highest in the league and still not including Revis or the rest of the defense.

In essence, the Patriots are probably choosing McCourty over at least one of those three players (the guess here would be Hightower, since there is enough overlap with Collins’ skill set).

That’s probably a fair choice for New England, and let’s not get too morbid here, since the whole crew can be retained in 2015. Still, it’s something to consider when envisioning what needs the Patriots should address as they fill out their defense.

Revis the Top Priority

Though he’s not technically a free agent, Darrelle Revis will continue to appear at the head of Patriots’ free-agent analyses because of his contract structure. New England is essentially undergoing the same contract evaluation process with Revis as it is with the team’s other free agents, and according to the Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe, the Pats have made the All-Pro cornerback their top priority:

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The Patriots’ actions this week have indicated they’re all in on cornerback Darrelle Revis.

It’s unclear how much progress the two camps have made in their efforts to strike a contract extension this week at the scouting combine in Indianapolis, but the Patriots have been deliberate with their other objectives as they creep toward free agency, according to a variety of sources.

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What Howe’s report doesn’t indicate is how far the front office is willing to stretch itself for Revis.

It’s hardly surprising that the shutdown corner would be the Patriots’ top offseason target, but there is a stark difference between prioritizing and accommodating a player. For an organization that has traditionally been inflexibly value-oriented, it would be surprising to see it yield to the latter approach and roll out the red carpet, even for a player of Revis’ caliber.

Then again, Revis may not necessarily opt for the mercenary role. The one-year relationship was a clearly harmonious one, and Revis has already indicated a desire to return to Foxborough in 2015.

Admittedly, those positive vibes came in the aftermath of the Super Bowl victory. Nevertheless, Revis took a slight discount to sign with the Patriots last season with the intention of competing for a championship, and with that faith rewarded, it’s likelier that he would give New England first priority in free agency.

Ultimately, this may boil down to guaranteed money.

Revis has traditionally bet on himself with contracts that pay out high annual salaries but no guaranteed money up-front (like his last deal with Tampa Bay). If the 29-year-old seeks out more long-term security, the Pats might not want to hamstring their books. But if he continues to bet on himself while affording the team greater flexibility, New England seems likely to retain its best defensive player.

*All salary cap information via Spotrac.com.