8 Embarrassingly Soft 2015 College Football Schedules
The College Football Playoff selection committee made it clear last year that strength of schedule was an important factor in determining whether a team was worthy of one of those coveted semifinal bids. The same thing goes for non-power conference teams hoping to land a major bowl bid—just winning a lot isn't as important as doing so against a tough schedule.
There's nothing to suggest this will change for 2015, which isn't a good sign for some schools who appear to have replaced "strength" with "weakness" to describe their upcoming schedules.
Based on the 2014 records of teams on this fall's slate, we've found eight teams who are set to play schedules so soft they may very well need to run the table just to remain in the playoff of "Group of Five conference" bid hunt. There's no margin for error, not when the future opponents collectively are as weak as these schools have on tap for this fall.
Baylor
1 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 75-76
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 32-31
Bowl opponents: 7 (4 home, 3 road)
Baylor's 2015 schedule is actually slightly harder than what it faced last year, but that's not saying much. And with the Big 12 coming off a down year, there's not much value to be gained from facing every team in that league...other than TCU.
The Bears' Nov. 27 trip to TCU is all that keeps their schedule from looking pathetic once again. It's one of three road games against teams that finished with a winning record in 2014, but Kansas State could be rebuilding, and Oklahoma State is still relatively young. There are also trips to Kansas and SMU, who combined to go 4-20 last year and both are breaking in new coaches.
Baylor would really benefit from being able to play a fourth nonconference game, since its toughest non-league foe is Rice. However, odds are the Bears wouldn't make great use of that extra open slot, since they just announced future schedule additions...of Louisiana Tech and FCS Abilene Christian.
Shehan Jeyarajah of The Dallas Morning News wrote Wednesday that such future opponents "won't do much to remedy the situation" in regards to Baylor's unfavorable scheduling reputation.
Boise State
2 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 76-77
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 38-39
Bowl opponents: 5 (2 home, 3 road)
Boise landed the coveted Group of Five spot into an access bowl last season, parlaying that into a Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona. The Broncos benefited from a solid nonconference lineup that included BYU, Ole Miss and Sun Belt champion Louisiana-Lafayette by being on the stronger side of the Mountain West Conference and playing all the better teams from the other division.
Not so in 2015.
The non-league slate is still good, with trips to BYU and Virginia and a visit from Washington, but the Broncos can't bank on getting the same value from the Mountain West. Ten-win teams Colorado State and Utah State both have big holes to fill, while crossover foes Nevada and San Diego State have been replaced by Hawaii and San Jose State.
The Broncos figure to be among the favorites for another major bowl bid, but they might need to run the table in their conference.
Colorado State
3 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 65-85
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 28-35
Bowl opponents: 6 (4 home, 2 road)
Mike Bobo's first head-coaching gig will involve some challenges when it comes to replacing major offensive and defensive personnel, but at least he won't have too tough a schedule to cut his teeth on.
Colorado State opens against Savannah State, arguably the worst FCS program in the country that was outscored 208-16 by the likes of Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee and BYU last year. A visit from Minnesota and the annual clash with rival Colorado (in Denver) will be challenging but not impossible to handle.
Then the Rams jump into Mountain West play, where they have the advantage of hosting Air Force, Boise State and San Diego State and only play one road game—at Utah State—against a team that finished last season with a winning record.
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Duke
4 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 69-82
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 27-46
Bowl opponents: 6 (5 home, 1 road)
The key to rebuilding a program, at least within a power conference, is to load up on lightweights in out-of-league play to make it easier to reach six wins each season. Duke has been a master of this, going 11-1 in nonconference games during its school-record three straight bowl seasons.
The Blue Devils have gotten themselves to a higher level, yet they continue to stick to the soft-as-a-pillow approach to nonconference scheduling. Ten of the 12 teams they faced from 2012-14 either had losing records or were FCS teams, and that's the general makeup of the 2015 non-league opponents as well.
Duke plays Army, Northwestern, Tulane (who were a collective 11-25 last year) and FCS school North Carolina Central.
Even the ACC schedule isn't particularly tough, since Duke is on the Coastal side where outside of Georgia Tech there's nothing too scary, and its crossover games with the Atlantic Division are super soft with a visit from a Boston College team that has to replace its entire offensive line (and 1,000-yard rushing quarterback Tyler Murphy) and a season-ending game at 3-9 Wake Forest.
If Duke doesn't get to six wins in 2015, it will be through no fault of the schedule.
Kansas State
5 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 75-77
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 24-38
Bowl opponents: 7 (5 home, 2 road)
Not only is Kansas State coach Bill Snyder a master of motivating young men and turning them into winners, he's also a pretty shrewd scheduler with an eye for anticipating when he'll face rebuilding years.
This is the best explanation for why, after the Wildcats had notable games in the past few years with power-conference opponents Auburn and Miami and there are future home-and-home series set up with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, there's nothing of the sort on the docket for 2015.
With half its starters having graduated, including quarterback Jake Waters and record-setting wide receiver Tyler Lockett, K-State is staring at a significant rebuilding year. Snyder likely had this in mind when he and his athletic department lined up the anti-Murderers' Row of South Dakota, UTSA (on the road) and Louisiana Tech for this fall.
While this might be good for the Wildcats, it's not good for the conference.
"When Big 12 teams schedule easy, it has a negative impact on the rest of the conference's strength of schedule, which is more important than ever in the playoff format," wrote Jake Trotter of ESPN.com.
Beyond the non-league games, K-State's schedule is favorable across the board. It has to face everyone in the Big 12, but 7-6 Oklahoma State is the "best" opponent is has to play on the road.
Marshall
6 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 54-89
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 30-41
Bowl opponents: 1 (1 road)
As Marshall steamrolled through a 2014 schedule so soft it was meringue-like, the Thundering Herd didn't get much love from the playoff committee when it came to getting ranked and in the hunt for the Group of Five access bowl bid. The school even went so far as to hire a public relations firm to improve the football team's image, much to no avail.
The Herd might want to get that PR angle started up now if it they want to have a shot at getting ranked this year, as their 2015 slate is somehow easier than last season's lineup.
There's a slight upgrade at the outset, as Marshall hosts Purdue so as to only have two low-end Mid-American Conference opponents instead of three. But then its Conference USA schedule does it no favorites, as only Western Kentucky played in a bowl last year. That game at the Hilltoppers isn't until Nov. 28, though, so if the Herd are able to effectively replace quarterback Rakeem Cato and remain strong, they'll be battling reputation questions all season that will be tougher than most opponents.
Memphis
7 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 65-84
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 31-44
Bowl opponents: 4 (2 home, 2 road)
The foundation for Memphis' breakout season last year was built on tough early-season trips to UCLA and Ole Miss, as well as a front-loaded American Athletic Conference schedule where future bowl-bound opponents Cincinnati and Houston were followed by six league games against teams that would go a combined 18-54.
This season the Tigers have their overabundance of easy games spread throughout the schedule.
The defending AAC champs figure to be in the running for the Group of Five access-bowl invitation after going 9-3 in 2014 and bringing back most of their much-improved offense. But their AAC schedule does them no favors, as now that the league has expanded to 12 teams and split into divisions, Memphis is in the weaker West side and only faces one of the three East teams that went bowling in 2014.
There are still two power-conference foes on the schedule, but a trip to Los Angeles has been replaced by one to Lawrence, Kansas. The Tigers' saving grace is that they get to host Ole Miss coming off a bye in mid-October.
TCU
8 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 74-78
Road opponents' combined 2014 record: 38-38
Bowl opponents: 8 (4 home, 4 road)
When comparing Baylor and TCU's resumes last season to determine which was more worthy of a playoff bid, it was the Horned Frogs' win against a pretty good Minnesota team that seemed to matter more than their loss to Baylor. In the end neither mattered, as TCU (as well as Baylor) was shut out of the semifinals, and the same could happen this year because of its overall weak slate.
The Frogs open at Minnesota on a Thursday night, but the Golden Gophers aren't likely to be as good as the 2014 team that lost by 23 in Fort Worth. And sadly, that's the only part of TCU's non-league lineup that has any value, as the other games are against FCS Stephen F. Austin and SMU.
TCU's Big 12 schedule is tougher on the road side than at home, with trips to both Oklahoma schools and Kansas State, but it gets Baylor at home this year in the regular-season finale. That basically makes the Frogs' most resume-worthy games be the ones at the outset and finish, while in between there's not much to talk about.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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