Ranking the NBA's Biggest Projects After the 2015 Trade Deadline
Is anyone else still hyperventilating following Thursday's NBA trade deadline?
If not, kudos. You're ahead of the game.
With roster shake-ups complete, dozens of draft picks changing hands and expiring contracts pushed to new locales, the back end of the NBA landscape deserves some attention too.
Between the Philadelphia 76ers parting with developing talent, the Boston Celtics bolstering their backcourt and the Denver Nuggets standing pat in purgatory, the league's biggest rebuilding projects are firmly in the crosshairs.
Quantifying construction is a fairly subjective task, though, so a few factors were weighted heavily here.
First and foremost, rosters as currently assembled were examined as a way to establish baseline rankings. From there, draft-pick stockpiles, future cap space, market size, organizational stability and statistical production received serious consideration as a way to differentiate each unique situation.
It was also imperative to keep long-term prospects in mind, since a majority of these rebuilding projects will span well beyond this season and spill into subsequent campaigns.
Finally, it's crucial to remember that the descending order of the rankings means the No. 9 team is presently in the best shape while the No. 1 team is facing the most arduous rebuild.
9. Boston Celtics
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Prior to the trade deadline, the Boston Celtics would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack.
However, Danny Ainge seized the day, nabbing point guard Isaiah Thomas from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Marcus Thornton and the Cleveland Cavaliers' 2016 first-round pick.
For starters, Boston bolstered its backcourt with a legitimate off-the-dribble scorer on a de-escalating, team-friendly deal. And while Thomas' reliance on ball dominance may not be ideal for a young core that's attempting to develop chemistry, it will certainly aid a team that ranks 22nd in pull-up field-goal percentage, according to SportVU player-tracking data.
Head coach Brad Stevens is particularly excited about Thomas' versatility, according to ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg:
"Isaiah is a guy that can create offense in a number of different ways. He’s a guy that can score off the ball on catch-and-shoot situations, or off of screens away from the ball. But he’s really good with the ball. And really good using high pick-and-rolls and side pick-and-rolls to get downhill and score. He’s got good speed, he’s very crafty, he gets to the foul line. From an efficiency standpoint, he has really done a lot of good things.
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With Thomas, Stevens can also get funky with his lineup combinations. Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley are both tenacious defenders, so the possibility exists for Boston to roll out smaller three-guard lineups that take advantage of the team's speed and muscle. Smart's growth as a three-point shooter makes that permutation all the more intriguing.
The other element of Boston's steady climb back to respectability revolves around asset management.
Ainge didn't part with any significant future considerations while targeting Thomas. Despite dealing Cleveland's 2016 first-round selection, the Celtics still have the league's second most impressive stockpile of future picks behind the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jared Sullinger's season-ending left metatarsal fracture hurts for the time being, but it shouldn't derail Boston's long-term quest to contend in a lowly Eastern Conference.
8. Sacramento Kings
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The Sacramento Kings clock in a one spot below the Boston Celtics due to two key factors: Draft picks and cap space.
DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay give the Kings a legitimate one-two star punch, but they still have $53.1 million in guaranteed money on next season's books. That's what happens when you tie up nearly $13 million in Jason Thompson and Carl Landry.
There's also the matter of Sacramento's 2015 first-round pick. Since it's top-10 protected through 2017, it likely won't be credited to the Chicago Bulls this season. But if Cousins and Co. can make some long-awaited incremental strides and putter up the Western Conference standings, the team will miss out on adding another talented, cost-effective piece.
These are the Kings, though, so even if they do retain that pick for the length of the protection, it's hard to trust their front office.
Between the Thomas Robinson dud and the redundant selection of Nik Stauskas, Sacramento isn't exactly on a roll in the personnel department.
Cousins' superstar-caliber play helps soften the blow of potential asset forfeitures to be sure. But it's imperative that new head coach George Karl helps breed a winning culture as the front office attempts to add the proper pieces to ensure upward mobility.
7. Utah Jazz
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It may not seem obvious given their 20-34 record, but the Utah Jazz have assembled a promising young core.
Gordon Hayward's bouncing back with a vengeance in Quin Snyder's offense, averaging 19.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 46.1 percent shooting from the field and 39.1 percent shooting from three. He also ranks directly ahead of Monta Ellis and Chris Paul with 27 20-point outings this season.
There's plenty to like outside of Hayward's max-contract resurgence too.
Rudy Gobert has been a menace as a starter, averaging 8.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and four blocks on 66.7 percent shooting. With Enes Kanter out of the picture, that's a line Jazz fans should have no trouble getting acclimated with.
When the Stifle Tower shares the floor with rookie Dante Exum, results are even brighter. According to NBA.com, the duo is holding opponents to 101.4 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor, a four-point improvement over the team's season-long mark.
With no outgoing draft picks, plenty of wiggle room under the cap, Trey Burke sliding into a new role as the Jazz's volume-scoring sixth man and Alec Burks due back from a shoulder injury next season, there's plenty to like about the state of Utah's long-term prospects.
6. Orlando Magic
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Like the Sacramento Kings, the Orlando Magic are familiar with battling organizational dysfunction.
Three weeks ago, they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn following a 15-37 start to his third year on the bench.
And while general manager Rob Hennigan has done his best to load up Orlando's roster with unique, versatile talents, steady development hasn't occurred across the board.
Overall, the team's offensive rating is actually down fractional points from last season despite ranking one spot higher. That's with an improved Nikola Vucevic and sharpshooter Channing Frye in the fold.
Defensively, teams are also scoring on the Magic at a slightly higher clip despite rookie point guard Elfrid Payton and his frisky hands trying to clamp down on ball-handlers.
It doesn't help that the versatile Tobias Harris will be entering restricted free agency this summer either.
So for the time being, the roster looks like a bit of a jumbled jigsaw puzzle. Vucevic was a legitimate All-Star snub, but there isn't much consistency on the roster outside of his nightly double-doubles. Victor Oladipo's jump shot remains a work in progress, Aaron Gordon is still dealing with early developmental kinks and Payton isn't a reliable scorer outside of the paint.
On the bright side, Orlando has fewer than $40 million in guaranteed money on the books for next season with no significant draft picks in its outbox.
That cap space could help entice impending free agents, but fully persuading them to ink long-term commitments given the murky state of the rebuild will require brainwashing of the highest caliber.
5. Denver Nuggets
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Speaking of jumbled messes, the Denver Nuggets, everybody!
Although Ty Lawson and John Wall are the only two players averaging at least 15 points and 10 assists this season, Denver's been downright disastrous during Brian Shaw's second season as head coach.
Ranked among the league's bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, the Nuggets have stalled after it looked like Kenneth Faried would be able to provide some hope for the future.
Instead, Faried's averaging just under 12 points, and his shooting percentages have plummeted across the board.
As a result, Lawson has observed Shaw growing tired of Denver's foray into disrespected territory.
“You can tell his spirit is getting lower and lower," Lawson said, according to The Denver Post's Nick Groke. "Just game in and game out, I guess we’re not executing the way we want to or according to the game plan. There’s always a ‘my bad’ or a ‘my fault.' I think he’s getting fed up."
Conversely, general manager Tim Connelly has been none too pleased with Lawson's antics.
"He needs to grow up. ...The organization, top to bottom, can't be anymore supportive," Connelly said, according to The Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala.
Fortunately, relief may soon be on the way.
Faried and Lawson are the only two major long-term commitments on Denver's books, with Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris both on rookie-scale deals through 2018.
The Nuggets can also swap 2016 first-round picks with the New York Knicks and recently acquired Portland's 2016 lottery-protected first in exchange for Arron Afflalo. Toss the Grizzlies' 2017 top-five protected pick on top of the heap, and there's a chance for some organic growth if Shaw can get his ducks in a row.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
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It was a quiet trade deadline for the Los Angeles Lakers, as expected.
Standing pat with gobs of cap space coming their way this summer, the Lakers—as always—have the opportunity to try to catch the eye of notable free agents.
"I know what Mitch [Kupchak, the Lakers GM] tells me," Kobe Bryant told GQ's Chuck Klosterman. "I know what Jim and Jeanie [Buss, the team owners] tell me. I know that they are hellbent about having a championship-caliber team next season, as am I."
Interestingly enough, Los Angeles' pursuit of a satisfactory sidekick for Bryant could start with Miami Heat point guard Goran Dragic.
According to the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina, the Lakers are in the early running to acquire Dragic's services should he decline his $7.5 player option for next season:
"A person familiar with Dragic’s thinking said he 'loves the opportunity' to join the Lakers and sees them as a 'perfect fit' when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. But the Heat can sign Dragic a five-year deal worth up to $100 million, while other teams can offer up to a four-year deal worth $80 million.
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General manger Mitch Kupchak may have some other ideas, according to the Orange County Register's Bill Oram:
"At some point we have to start a new run. And that’s definitely going to include Kobe next year.
To jeopardize the next five or seven years (and) bring in old veterans that make a lot of money, just to win one more year, because that’s Kobe’s last year or could be his last year, I’m not sure that fits into doing it the right way.
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So as it turns out, the front office might not be in the mood to mortgage flexibility.
And while the Lakers owe the Philadelphia 76ers their 2015 first-round pick if it falls outside the top five, there shouldn't be much cause for concern there.
"Gut feel, my guess is the Lakers pick is very unlikely to convey this year, for a whole host of reasons," Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie told reporters, according to the Philadelphia Daily News' John Smallwood.
With 2014 lottery pick Julius Randle expected back for summer league play, according to Medina, and Jordan Clarkson coming into his own, Los Angeles has the potential to vault back into playoff contention sooner rather than later.
However, contending will hinge upon the front office's ability to sell itself and nab the proven veterans necessary to maximize Bryant's remaining time on the floor.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have a more stable foundation than the Denver Nuggets to be sure.
Andrew Wiggins is on the superstar fast track, Ricky Rubio is evolving into a multifaceted offensive threat and Gorgui Dieng has the makings of a long-term complementary frontcourt solution.
Factor in Shabazz Muhammad—who averaged 13.5 points and 4.1 rebounds on 48.9 percent shooting prior to a season-ending finger injury—and there's a deep pool of upside worth getting excited over.
However, one of the league's youngest corps still has plenty of hurdles to clear.
Most notably, the defense has been downright flimsy. Allowing a league-worst 109.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com, Minnesota ranks last in opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim (57.1) and 27th in opponents' three-point percentage (37.0).
Financially, Minnesota could also benefit from shedding Nikola Pekovic's remaining salary down the line. Due more than $35 million through the end of the 2017-18 season, Pekovic and his deliberate post-up stylings aren't an ideal fit for an offense that's playing at the league's eighth-fastest pace, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Eventually moving Kevin Martin—a hot trade deadline name—would also be a nice way to net cheap assets while clearing cap space in the name of effective roster construction.
2. New York Knicks
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Optimism isn't a feeling the New York Knicks are familiar with, and that will continue to be the case until the team can surround Carmelo Anthony with a worthy supporting cast.
The trade deadline came and went without major movement, and that means the Knicks are honing in on free agency to try to accelerate the development of their massive project.
That may be quite tough.
New York isn't brimming with promising talent, which means Anthony's star status, Phil Jackson's negotiating skills and the team's market share are the only qualities that should hold clout when recruiting new pieces.
It helps that the Knicks finally own their first-round pick this year, but that will all change in 2016 when the team's selection falls into the hands of the Toronto Raptors.
Also consider that the Knicks were unable to find a taker for the two years and $15 million remaining on Jose Calderon's contract, and it's hard to be bullish on such an uncertain future.
And while the Knicks will be strapped with cap space like the Los Angeles Lakers, roster composition is important here. Outside of Kobe Bryant, the Lakers also have the promising Jordan Clarkson, a rehabilitating Julius Randle and the always fiery Jordan Hill.
Compared to Langston Galloway, Lou Amundson, Lance Thomas and friends, that's a superior foundation for the time being.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
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The Philadelphia 76ers took another step back at the trade deadline. By dealing Michael Carter-Williams and K.J. McDaniels in separate transactions, Philadelphia stocked up on more draft picks and the promise of some tremendous future payoff.
That's hard to stomach at first, but it's also difficult to knock the value Philadelphia extracted for Carter-Williams, whose counting stats had his stock trending higher than it deserved to be.
Even if the top-five protected pick it acquired from the Los Angeles Lakers (via the Phoenix Suns) isn't conveyed this season (and it likely won't be), it's only top-three protected in 2016 and 2017. To obtain an asset of that value for a raw offensive prospect at the league's deepest position should be considered a win.
And while parting with McDaniels for Isaiah Canaan and a 2015 second-round pick feels like a loss in the short term, Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal provides some important perspective:
"The rookie forward had been one of the few bright spots on the roster, but losing him for such mediocre returns isn't as bad as some may initially think. Remember, McDaniels chose to sign a one-year contract rather than the typical rookie deal for a second-round pick, and he could easily command a price higher than the Sixers are willing to pony up this offseason.
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That said, trading McDaniels makes Philadelphia even more of a project for the time being.
Now, a blockbuster trade for a proven star could change that designation in one fell swoop. After all, the Sixers own up to four first-round and five second-round picks this year.
But should the Sixers continue to add presumed building block after presumed building block through the draft, this process will continue for the foreseeable future with no end in sight.
All statistics current as of Feb. 22 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. All draft-pick information retrieved from RealGM.com. Salary information courtesy of BasketballInsiders.com unless noted otherwise.
