Ranking the Top 10 Contenders for NBA MVP
With the All-Star break fading in the rearview mirror, the race for NBA MVP will begin to take shape as we move into second half of the season. While Stephen Curry and James Harden are the clear favorites, eight other players have also distinguished themselves from the crowd.
Numbers and high-quality performances on both sides of the ball are obvious considerations for these rankings. But the distinguishing factor for these 10? Their contributions have largely shaped the outcome of their teams' seasons.
In order to demonstrate each player’s significance to their team’s success, we will take a look at advanced stats such as win shares, player efficiency ratings and player impact estimates to supplement all other stats.
All win shares and player efficiency ratings (PER) are according to Basketball-Reference.com. All player impact estimate (PIE) referenced are according to NBA.com.
Honorable Mention
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Before we move into the top 10, here are two players who have had MVP-worthy seasons so far but didn’t quite make the cut.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 22.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals
Thompson has certainly produced MVP-caliber numbers this season, but his 52-point game against the Sacramento Kings on Jan. 23 is just the tip of the iceberg. He’s having the best shooting performance of his career, averaging 44 percent from beyond the arc and 47 percent overall. Defensively, he holds his opponents’ field-goal percentage from less than 10 feet at 6.8 percent below their season average, per NBA.com.
The shooting guard has a 20.9 PER and a claim to 6.1 win shares. Yet while he continues to distinguish himself as a star, he is not Golden State’s most effective player.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals
Like Thompson, Aldridge is just simply not Portland’s most efficient player.
However, it would be wrong to leave him out of the picture. His 23.6 points per game and 10.3 rebounds per game place him among the league’s top 10 in each category—joined by just two other players with the same claim: DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis.
He has 3.0 defensive win shares and a 22.5 PER, the 10th-highest rating in the league.
10. Jeff Teague
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.9 points, 7.5 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 steals
The Atlanta Hawks' starting five were named the Eastern Conference Player(s) of the Month for their 17-0 run in January—the best month in NBA history. The guy running the show? Jeff Teague.
The 26-year-old point guard is having the best season of his six-year career. Teague has 6.4 win shares and a 21.8 PER.
Defensively, his opponents’ field-goal percentages have dropped from 43.6 percent in 2013-14 to 38.4 percent this season, according to NBA.com.
Although his numbers are not quite as intimidating as some of the other candidates, he has been the key figure to Atlanta’s winning ways this season.
9. DeMarcus Cousins
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 blocks
Cousins has been putting up big numbers in Sacramento all season long. He ranks third in average rebounds per game, seventh in average points per game and is tied for ninth in average blocks per game—just one of two players to currently rank within the top 10 of each category.
8. Damian Lillard
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.5 steals
Lillard has led the Portland Trail Blazers to the top position in the Northwest with 21.5 points and 6.3 assists per game on just 26.4 percent of the team’s possessions, according to NBA.com.
The 24-year-old guard has a 21.4 PER and claim to 7.9 win shares in his third NBA season.
7. John Wall
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 10.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals
John Wall is performing across the floor in a way none of the preceding contenders can claim. His 2.9 defensive win shares rank 11th in the league—the third highest for a guard, behind Stephen Curry and James Harden. Overall, he has been credited with 6.2 win shares.
He is the league leader in assists, playing a role in 44.9 percent of his teammates' field goals, per NBA.com.
Most importantly, he’s carrying the Wizards to a playoff berth.
6. Kevin Durant
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.9 steals/blocks
The reigning MVP has appeared in just 27 games this season due to injury. However, his contributions have made a positive difference for the Oklahoma City Thunder despite his limited play.
Durant’s 25.4 points per game is good for fourth in the league to go along with a 51 percent field-goal percentage. His 19.4 PIE is tied for the best in the league with Anthony Davis. His 27.8 PER isn't quite at his 29.8 rating from last season, but his performance when healthy has still been of MVP caliber.
5. Russell Westbrook
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 26.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 2.2 steals
While Durant’s performance is undoubtedly significant to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s success, Russell Westbrook is the reason the team remained afloat in KD's absence for the first part of the season due to his fractured right foot (note Westbrook's higher ranking).
Despite being sidelined with any injury of his own for a short period of time, Westbrook has produced high numbers across the board. He ties LeBron James with 26.0 points per game for second best in the league. He’s assisted 41.2 percent of his teammate’s field goals, per NBA.com. Defensively, his league-leading 2.2 steals are a career best.
4. Anthony Davis
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 blocks
While Westbrook’s efforts have kept the Thunder above water in Durant’s absence, Durant’s contributions have still been very significant. For Davis and the Pelicans, on the other hand, it has very much been a one-man show.
Davis matches Durant’s 19.4 PIE. He has been one of the most efficient players this season, leading the league with a 31.2 PER with claim to 9.9 win shares—third highest in the league.
He averages a double-double, is currently ranked fourth in league scoring and is tied for 10th in rebounding. As the league leader in average blocks, he joins Cousins as the only other player to rank within the top 10 of each of the three categories.
Davis does this all while using just 26.9 percent of his team’s possessions, according to NBA.com—a low number among most of the league’s top performers.
3. LeBron James
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 26.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.5 steals
James has put together another big year despite the early struggles of his team in Cleveland. He’s second in the league in scoring and has been distributing the ball well, averaging 7.3 assists per game, placing him among the top 10 in assists.
His 25.7 PER is fifth best in the league.
This hasn’t been one of his best years, but with 26 games remaining on the schedule, his performance with the Cavaliers will certainly strengthen before playoffs.
2. James Harden
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 27.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 2.0 steals
Harden’s overall game this season trumps even LeBron James.
The Houston Rockets sit fourth in the West largely because of Harden, who leads the league in scoring. He has 11.2 win shares—the highest in the league—with a 27.2 PER.
He has a reputation for being disinterested on defense, but his two steals per game, which rank fourth in the league, and 3.0 defensive win shares denote otherwise.
1. Stephen Curry
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2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 2.2 steals
It’s not hard to see the magic of Curry when he’s on the floor. The Warriors carry best record in the league at 43-9—and Curry is carrying them.
He’s leading the NBA in three-point shooting while sitting among the league’s top 10 scorers and passers. Defensively, he leads the league in steals and has 3.1 defensive win shares, tied for fourth highest.
He's assisted 35.9 percent of his team’s field goals, per NBA.com, and averages an 11.5 positive point differential when on the court for the Warriors.
While Harden may have better numbers in some areas, Curry gets the nod by virtue of how he’s led the Warriors to the best record in the league.
