If Matt Miller Had Drafted Your Team...
"What If?"
It's a game that gets played a lot at this time of year in the NFL. Over the next few months, hundreds of draftniks will publish thousands of mock drafts. Each will make their best guess as to how the first round of this year's NFL draft in Chicago will play out.
But, what if those were more than just educated guesses? What if mock drafts truly were a glimpse into the future?
What if they were right?
This time out, we're going to reverse the polarity on the fortune telling machine by looking back at Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's final mock drafts for 2012, 2013 and 2014.
What if those mock drafts had come to pass? What if each and every pick had been accurate? How might that have changed the NFL landscape vs. the one we know today?
Am I ever going to stop asking questions and start answering them?
Read on and find out!
Arizona Cardinals
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Miller's Picks: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (2012), Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (2013), Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State (2014)
What could have been indeed.
Back in 2012, Justin Blackmon was the two-time defending Biletnikoff Award winner and the most hyped wide receiver in that year's draft. However, Miller predicted that Blackmon would drop to the 13th overall pick:
"The media-hyped Blackmon falls to a point where he's a much better value. The Cardinals have other needs, but they simply draft the highest-rated guy on their board. He'll also help get Larry Fitzgerald more looks in the passing game.
"
Of course, Blackmon didn't make it out of the top five, and while he's displayed all-world talent Blackmon's currently resides in NFL purgatory thanks to numerous off-the-field issues.
A change of scenery may not have kept Blackmon out of trouble, but with Larry Fitzgerald as a mentor it's certainly fun to imagine what Blackmon could be if it had.
The Cardinals gladly would have drafted Johnson at No. 7 two years ago, but the Oklahoma star didn't make it that far. Instead the Redbirds went with North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper, who has battled injuries throughout an underwhelming start in the NFL.
And while we're taking a stroll down "what if" avenue, consider this.
If Miller's 2014 pick had been spot-on, then when Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton got hurt for the Redbirds last year, it wouldn't have been Ryan (giggle) Lindley taking on the Carolina Panthers in the playoffs...
It would have been Derek Carr under center, with a chance at a Cinderella playoff run.
Atlanta Falcons
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Miller's Picks: D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston (2013), Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo (2014)
The Atlanta Falcons didn't have a first-rounder in 2012, having sent it to Cleveland as part of the Julio Jones trade the year before.
Miller came pretty close in 2013, correctly predicting that the Falcons would look to upgrade their leaky pass defense.
However, whereas Miller saw Atlanta taking D.J. Hayden (who has struggled mightily in two years in Oakland) because Washington's Desmond Trufant was already off his board, in reality Trufant made it to the Falcons at No. 22.
Given that Trufant ranked sixth among all NFL cornerbacks in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus (while Hayden checked in 61st) that appears to have been for the best.
The team had no suck luck the following season. Miller mocked Mack to the Falcons at No. 6, although he cautioned that it wasn't a sure thing:
"Mack would give defensive coordinator Mike Nolan the defensive weapon he lost when Atlanta released John Abraham. He's violent and fast. He also has amazing instincts for the football. Mack is good enough that the Falcons may just need to get up to pick No. 2 to land him.
"
Sure enough, Mack was taken by the Oakland Raiders one pick before. In fact, both Miller's projected picks for the Falcons now ply their trade in the Bay Area.
The Falcons instead went with Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews last May, with what can at best be called mixed results.
Baltimore Ravens
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Miller's Picks: Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia (2012), Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State (2013), Zack Martin, OG, Notre Dame (2014)
For the first time in this retrospective, one of Miller's picks matches what actually happened in the NFL draft -- sort of.
Sure enough, the Baltimore Ravens selected Kansas State inside linebacker Arthur Brown as a replacement for Ray Lewis in 2013. However, whereas Miller had the Ravens taking Brown at the tail end of Round 1, the pick actually didn't come to pass until Round 2.
Given that Brown has been a massive disappointment to this point in his NFL career, the Ravens probably wish the pick hadn't come to pass at all. Or the Matt Elam pick that came before it, for that matter.
OK, so 2013 didn't go so well for Ozzie Newsome.
You won't hear Newsome complaining about C.J. Mosley, who the Ravens selected in Round 1 last year. The inside linebacker filled the void Brown was supposed to, playing at a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate.
In that respect at least, everything probably worked out. Zack Martin was outstanding for the Dallas Cowboys in 2014, but the Ravens have a pair of top-10 guards already in Marshall Yanda and young Kelechi Osemele.
Of course, Miller's original plan was for Martin to slot at right tackle:
"The Notre Dame left tackle has All-Pro potential as a guard but could be just as good at right tackle. He would instantly replace Ricky Wagner at that spot and give the Ravens the balance they need along the offensive line.
"
Add in Glenn, and the Ravens would probably have the best offensive line (on paper, at least) in the NFL.
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Buffalo Bills
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Miller's Picks: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (2012), Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (2013), Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M (2014)
You'll notice a theme with some of Miller's picks. A theme I'm confident you'll find in any examination of multiple years of mock drafts.
Trends develop with certain teams. Especially those that had a glaring hole on their rosters.
Such was the case with the Buffalo Bills and the wide receiver position in recent years. As such, it isn't exactly a stunner that Miller mocked a wideout to the Bills with their first pick in both 2012 and 2013.
Michael Floyd topped 1,000 yards for the Arizona Cardinals two years ago before backsliding in 2014. Tavon Austin's done very little in two seasons with the Rams. That might lead some to speculate that the Bills dodged a bullet.
Until, of course, you consider that neither cornerback Stephon Gilmore (2012) or quarterback EJ Manuel (2013) has exactly taken the NFL by storm.
Miller's 2014 pick was rendered moot when the Bills dealt a package of picks (including their 2015 first-rounder) to move up and snag wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
If Watkins' rookie season was any indication, for the Bills patience really was a virtue at wide receiver.
Carolina Panthers
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Miller's Picks: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (2012), Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri (2013), Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia (2014)
What a difference a pick makes.
Back in 2012, Miller slotted South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Carolina Panthers at pick No. 9:
"The Panthers will look hard at Luke Kuechly and the defensive tackles available, but they can't pass on a cornerback in a division that features Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman.
"
Yeah -- Josh Freeman. Crazy how much can change in a few short years.
Well, the Panthers passed on Gilmore, but Miller was close. As he mentioned, Carolina looked hard at Kuechly, and the 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year hasn't looked back since.
Miller came close again in 2013. The Panthers went the defensive tackle route, just as Miller thought. However, Sheldon Richardson went one pick before Carolina (to the New York Jets), so the Panthers settled on Utah's Star Lotulelei.
Richardson won Defensive Rookie of the Year that season, but Lotulelei has emerged as a very good player in his own right.
There's no such close call a year ago. The Panthers acquired their No. 1 wideout of the future in Kelvin Benjamin, who topped 1,000 yards and scored nine touchdowns as a rookie.
That's a far bigger contribution than the team would have gotten from Virginia tackle Morgan Moses, who made it on the field for fewer than 150 snaps as a rookie in Washington.
Chicago Bears
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Miller's Picks: Nick Perry, OLB, USC (2012), Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (2013), Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh (2014)
The Chicago Bears are a franchise with a reputation for fearsome defensive play. The Monsters of the Midway. The 1985 team, considered by many the greatest single-season squad in NFL history.
How the mighty have fallen.
Unfortunately, Nick Perry wouldn't have been of much more help to the Bears than Shea McClellin, who the team actually drafted back in 2012. Perry's been a marginally better pro in Green Bay, but marginal is a good way to put his contributions as well.
Manti Te'o started to come on later in the 2014 season in San Diego, and his toughness would be a welcome addition to a marshmallow-soft Chicago run defense. But at the expense of Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long? Pass.
In 2014, Miller wrote that the Bears would look to the middle of the defense:
"Aaron Donald's 2013 season was one of the more dominant a college football player has had in a long while. At 6'1", 285 pounds, he wasn't thought to fit the mold of what an NFL pass-rushing defensive tackle would look like, but then he continued to dominate blockers throughout the season and at the Senior Bowl, and he tested off the charts at the combine.
Donald would be the starting 3-technique from day one for the Bears, filling out a defensive line that features new starters in Lamarr Houston, Willie Young and Jared Allen.
"
Unfortunately, the St. Louis Rams had the same thought, drafting Donald one pick earlier. The Bears got a good young cornerback in Kyle Fuller, but that "new look" line in the Windy City was a hot mess.
Cincinnati Bengals
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Miller's Picks: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor (2012), Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama (2012), D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama (2013), Kyle Fuller, CB, TCU (2014)
We have our first "nail on the head" situation. Well, sort of.
Miller got the picks flipped, but just as he predicted, the team used one of their two first-round picks in 2012 on Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick:
"Replacing Johnathan Joseph was harder than the team expected last year. A barrage of veteran signings didn't fill the void, but drafting Kirkpatrick will. In a worst-case scenario, he can move to free safety and be a star.
"
That star turn hasn't come yet (partly due to injuries), but Kirkpatrick has been OK.
Other than that, Miller's picks for the Bengals never had a chance, as the team was repeatedly beaten to the punch.
From Wright to Fluker and Fuller, every other pick Miller slotted to Cincinnati came off the board before the Bengals could have taken them if they wanted to.
And for most of them, the jury's still out. Fluker and guard Kevin Zeitler (who the Bengals drafted in 2012) are serviceable starters, but not much more than that. Wright and tight end Tyler Eifert (Cincy's first-round pick two years ago) have battled injuries and both Fuller and Michigan State cornerback Darqueze Dennard (the Bengals first pick last May) were up-and-down as rookies.
Were you to assign a letter grade to either haul (be it real or hypothetical) it would likely be "incomplete."
Cleveland Browns
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Miller's Picks: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (2012), Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina (2012), Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (2013), Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (2014), Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana (2014)
Not even in an alternate universe can we escape the vortex of suck that is the Cleveland Browns.
Just as the Browns did in 2012, Miller recommended the team spend their first pick of that draft on Alabama running back Trent Richardson:
"A pick too safe and smart for it to not happen. Richardson will give the Browns a real offensive threat. As much as they need a receiver, pairing Justin Blackmon with Colt McCoy isn't going to score many touchdowns. Richardson's run ability will.
"
Turns out "smart" was the last thing that pick was, although Cleveland's move to get a first round pick back by shipping Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts was freaking brilliant.
Just as the Browns did last year, Miller recommended that Cleveland spend one of their two first-rounders on Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel:
"Johnny Football isn't ranked inside my top 10 players, but his potential is too good to ignore when you're a quarterback-starved team. And the Browns are definitely that.
The Browns have the ideal setup for Manziel too, with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in place, a good offensive line and some dynamic threats at receiver and tight end. This isn't a finished offense, but Manziel thrives in chaos and could be the spark plug this team needs.
"
At least the Browns traded down before jumping off that particular cliff.
However, Miller's drafts and the Browns differ in one huge spot.
In 2012, Miller suggested the Browns take South Carolina wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who is a superstar in the making. Instead, Cleveland took 28-year-old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden.
And for that reason alone as a Browns fan I fully support Miller as the team's next general manager.
We all know the clock's ticking on Ray "The Textinator" Farmer.
Dallas Cowboys
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Miller's Picks: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama (2012), Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina (2013), Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri (2014)
Maybe we need to start giving Jerry Jones a break. For all the flak he catches about the decisions he's made for the Dallas Cowboys over the past decade or so, by weight of comparison his actual drafts the past three years look pretty good.
At least early on.
Yes, Jones' trade up to select cornerback Morris Claiborne in 2012 was a disaster, but not because Claiborne was considered a reach. He's just been awful in the NFL.
Mark Barron has been better to this point in his NFL career, but not so much more that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hesitated to trade him to the St. Louis Rams for peanuts last year.
The Cowboys caught a lot of flak for drafting Travis Frederick in the first round two years ago, and the pick may well have been a reach. That doesn't change the fact that Frederick has already become a top 10 center in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus.
Guard Zack Martin went Frederick one better, earning All-Pro honors as a rookie in 2014.
It certainly appears a better haul than Cooper (who hasn't looked the same since breaking his leg as a rookie) and Ealy, who was a rotational pass-rusher for the Carolina Panthers in 2014.
Frightening though it may be to admit it, Jones did well for the team these past few years.
At least early on.
Denver Broncos
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Miller's Picks: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State (2012), Cornelius Carradine, DE, Florida State (2013), Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State (2014)
In many respects, Miller's picks for the Broncos don't inspire a lot of oohs and aahs. Back in 2012, Miller suggested the Broncos target Boise State running back Doug Martin. The "Muscle Hamster" was outstanding in gaining over 1,900 total yards as a rookie, but he's also missed nearly half of the last two seasons with injuries.
In 2013, Miller wrote that the Broncos would be well-served to go with Florida State defensive end Cornelius Carradine:
"With Carradine, the Broncos would have the perfect answer to the defensive end spot opposite Von Miller. He has the strength to play either left or right end, and he is quick enough to hunt the quarterback as a pass-rusher. Fans of AFC West teams should pray this doesn't happen.
"
It didn't, and Carradine's been mostly quiet in two years working his way back from an ACL tear in San Francisco. Ryan Shazier got off to a good start with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but by season's end injuries and so-so play had relegated Shazier to a part-time role.
With that said though, it's a similar bag when you compare them to the players Denver actually drafted. Defensive linemen Derek Wolfe (2012) and Sylvester Williams (2013) and cornerback Bradley Roby (2014) all played at least 400 snaps in 2014, but it's not as if any are cornerstones of the Denver defense.
Call it "end of the round" syndrome.
Detroit Lions
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Miller's Picks: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (2012), Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (2013), Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State (2014)
Great minds think alike.
That was the case for both Matt Miller and the Detroit Lions back in 2012. In that year's draft, Miller forecast that the Lions would select Iowa offensive tackle Riley Reiff:
"The Lions do a great job of drafting the best player available, even when it doesn't fill an immediate need. This time around, the top player happens to fill a massive need. Reiff allows the team insurance as Jeff Backus nears retirement and gives Matthew Stafford a reliable succession plan at left tackle.
"
Sure enough, the Lions took Reiff, who has started 39 games over three seasons in Detroit.
However, where they agreed on Reiff, neither of Miller's other two picks panned out for the Lions. Central Michigan tackle Eric Fisher was the first overall pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013, and Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert went two picks before the Lions in 2014.
Of course, given that both Fisher and Gilbert have struggled mightily to this point in their professional careers, that may well have been a blessing in disguise.
Green Bay Packers
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Miller's Picks: Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State (2012), Johnathan Cyprien, S, Florida International (2013), Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois (2014)
Better late than never.
The safety position was a weak spot for the Green Bay Packers in recent seasons. So much so, in fact, that Miller mocked a safety to Titletown in each of the past two years.
Back in 2013, it was Florida International thumper Johnathan Cyprien:
"Cyprien has the hitting ability and range that is missing in their defensive backfield. The team had to be happy with the play of second-year man M.D. Jennings, but Cyprien is on another level as a prospect, and he would give the team much-needed depth at safety by stepping into a starting role and keeping Jennings in dime packages.
"
The Packers, however, didn't follow Miller's lead, instead drafting UCLA defensive end Datone Jones. So, Miller was right back on that safety kick the following year, this time with Jimmie Ward of Northern Illinois:
"The Northern Illinois safety has range and great cover skills from both the slot or the single-high spot. He can run with receivers and has shown an aggressive ability to attack passes or ball-carriers. He's far from timid and may be too wound up at times—but that's what Dom Capers' defense needs.
"
This time the Packers didn't take Ward but did draft a safety, pulling the trigger on Hasean Clinton-Dix of Alabama at No. 21.
To date, Clinton-Dix is the only player of the bunch to have performed above replacement level, so in that respect at least general manager Ted Thompson chose wisely in 2014.
Houston Texans
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Miller's Picks: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech (2012), Keenan Allen, WR, Cal (2013), Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB, South Carolina (2014)
Well you see, what had happened was...
Heading into last year's NFL draft, the consensus among most draftniks was that South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney would be the first overall pick of the 2014 draft.
Miller was in agreement:
"Clowney is tied for the top spot on my Big Board with Bridgewater, but he is a once-in-a-decade type of talent. He's comparable to Julius Peppers, Jevon Kearse, Ndamukong Suh and Von Miller as the best pass-rushing college players I've ever evaluated. That's pretty great company to be in.
"
Yes, Clowney's rookie year was a disaster that ended in microfracture surgery, but at least we were all wrong together.
The year before, Miller came close, getting the position right but the player wrong. Still, given that both Keenan Allen and Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins (who the Texans actually picked in 2013) have enjoyed a fair amount of success already in the NFL, either player would have been a solid choice.
Certainly better than Stephen Hill of Georgia Tech, who has done next to nothing as a pro since being drafted three years ago.
Luckily that's the New York Jets' problem. The Texans passed on the lanky wideout in 2012, instead settling on Illinois pass-rusher Whitney Mercilus.
Indianapolis Colts
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Miller's Picks: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (2012), Margus Hunt, DE, SMU (2013)
Of the 96 first-round picks that Miller has mocked over the past three years, there wasn't a bigger no-brainer than the first overall selection in 2012.
Everyone and their mother knew that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was headed to Indianapolis.
As Miller wrote at the time, "Who else would it be? The Indianapolis Colts "luck" into the best NFL draft prospect of the 2000s (or more). Peyton who?"
Luck has led the Colts to playoff berths in each of his three NFL seasons, and last year the team came within a game of advancing to the Super Bowl.
So far so good.
Things have certainly worked out better with Luck than with Florida State's Bjoern Werner, who the Colts drafted the following season. Still, Margus Hunt hasn't had a whole lot more success getting to quarterbacks in Cincinnati, so we'll call that a wash.
Trading their 2014 first rounder to Cleveland for running back Trent Richardson?
That was just a mess.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Miller's Picks: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina (2012), Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia (2013), Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville (2014)
As you may have noticed, the Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled in a big way in recent years. That's due in no small part to the lack of anything resembling an NFL quarterback.
It's no surprise then that Miller went the quarterback route in each of the last two drafts. In 2013, it was West Virginia's Geno Smith:
"From owner Shad Khan all the way to head coach Gus Bradley, there is a buzz surrounding Geno Smith that is radiating from the building. This isn't the regime that drafted Blaine Gabbert, and their responsibility to him carries no loyalty beyond his paycheck. Smith would bring about the harsh reality that is Gabbert's ending tenure with the Jaguars.
In a crop of weak quarterbacks, Smith is far above the competitors. But if you asked me to stake my job security on his ability to play quarterback in the NFL, I'd pass.
"
Well, Miller was spot-on about Smith, although the player the team wound up picking (Texas A&M tackle Luke Joeckel) hasn't exactly been dominant.
The next season Miller was at it again, this time sending Lousiville's Teddy Bridgewater down Florida way:
"The NFL may not value Bridgewater as highly as I do—he's tied for my top overall player—but this is a mock draft of what should happen, and the Jaguars should draft Bridgewater.
With Henne there, Bridgewater wouldn't have to play immediately, but he can and should be given the chance to win the starting job. With his pre-snap IQ and post-snap smoothness, the former Louisville signal-caller would give the Jaguars something they haven't had since Mark Brunell—a true franchise quarterback.
"
The Jaguars did take a quarterback, only it was Central Florida's Blake Bortles who got the call.
If their rookie seasons were any indication, the Jaguars should have listened to Miller.
Kansas City Chiefs
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Miller's Picks: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford (2012), Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M (2013), Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State (2014)
It's difficult to assess where Miller's drafts for the Kansas City Chiefs stack up against the real thing.
Back in 2012, the Chiefs raised some eyebrows by drafting Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe at pick No. 11.
However, Poe has had his moments manning the middle of the Chiefs three-man front, just as David DeCastro has been at least decent for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Likewise, both Joeckel and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher (who the Chiefs drafted first overall in 2013) have been -- well, not what one would hope from a top-five pick.
The 2013 draft was just -- ugly.
In 2014, Miller projected the Chiefs would select Oregon State speedster Brandin Cooks:
"Brandin Cooks has to remind (head coach Andy) Reid of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin—two of his favorites from Philadelphia, and both exceptional yards-after-catch players. Cooks, the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner as college football's best receiver, has the burst to separate before and after the catch.
He's a dynamic playmaker in a similar mold to Tavon Austin, and Reid could definitely find a use for him in a creative role opposite Bowe.
"
Dee Ford may well turn out to be a fine pass-rusher for the Chiefs, but after watching Kansas City's wide receivers catch all of zero touchdown passes in 2014 you have to think Cooks would have looked pretty good in red and white.
Miami Dolphins
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Miller's Picks: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (2012), Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU (2013), C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama (2014)
Oh what might have been.
In 2014, Miller wrote that Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosley should be the first pick of the Miami Dolphins:
"Inside linebacker C.J. Mosley might not seem like a need pick, but he is. Mosley can play any of the three linebacker positions in a 4-3 scheme and would allow the Dolphins the flexibility to move Dannell Ellerbe if they decide he's not a great fit at the "Mike" position.
Mosley is a top-10 talent, but in a draft this deep it's difficult to place him with a team higher up the board. In Miami, his range and athleticism would allow him to flourish behind a very good defensive line. Mosley's ability to impact the game as a tackler, blitzer and coverage linebacker is exactly what the Dolphins lacked in 2013.
"
Sadly, Mosley went two picks earlier to Baltimore, where he was a Pro Bowler as a rookie.
In 2013, Miller suggested BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah:
"While the cornerback position could also be worth addressing here, adding a true pass-rusher like Ansah to play right defensive end is too good to pass up. Also, with the depth that this class has at cornerback, the Dolphins can feel good about waiting for a player in Round 2. The same cannot be said at defensive end.
"
Instead, the Dolphins traded up to the No. 3 pick, taking Oregon defensive end Dion Jordan. Ansah has 15.5 sacks over two seasons. Jordan has more games lost to suspension than career sacks.
Maybe the Dolphins should just let Miller run their drafts. Where the last three seasons are considered, He's smoked them in the first round.
Minnesota Vikings
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Miller's Picks: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (2012), DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans (2013), Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State (2013), Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida (2014)
In many respects, Miller came close to nailing the Vikings last three drafts. Or at least as close as one could reasonably expect in a mock.
Yes, drafting Mo Claiborne in 2012 would have been a disaster. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys, who traded up to sixth overall that year to take the LSU cornerback.
Some players just don't pan out. Much the same could be said about the Vikes' actual pick that season (tackle Matt Kalil).
Just as Miller predicted, the Vikings used one of their 2013 first-rounders on cornerback Xavier Rhodes:
"The Vikings would love to replace Antoine Winfield with a drafted player, and if Rhodes is still on the board here, he makes sense, as the team favors taller cornerbacks with nice range. This is an ideal fit for him as a coverage cornerback, and with a good pass rush and nice safety play to help, Rhodes could have a big rookie season as the Vikings' No. 1 cornerback.
"
Miller also correctly forecast that the Vikings would draft a wideout that season, and that the team would draft a quarterback in the first round the following year.
Yes, the Vikings did so with picks they added on draft day, but if Miller could predict that he'd be winning lotteries instead of mocking drafts.
Minny might just be willing to flip Hopkins for Cordarrelle Patterson after the latter backslid significantly in 2014.
Bortles for Teddy Bridgewater? Not a chance.
New England Patriots
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Miller's Picks: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, New England Patriots (2012), Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall (2012), Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M (2013), Dominique Easley, DT, Florida (2014)
There isn't a harder team in the NFL to mock than the New England Patriots, which makes it all the more remarkable that Miller came as close as he did.
Yes, two of the four players Miller projected the Pats to take over the past three seasons aren't on the team. However, that's at least partly due to the fact that the Patriots traded those picks away altogether.
That's what makes them so hard to mock. The Pats very much enjoy the art of the deal.
With that said though, Miller hit the jackpot on the other two picks. Whether it was linebacker Dont'a Hightower of Alabama back in 2012:
"Bill Belichick taps into the Alabama pipeline again to find an athletic linebacker for his 3-4 defense. Brandon Spikes and Hightower could give the Patriots much more versatility and allow the team to keep Jerod Mayo at outside linebacker.
"
Or Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley a year ago:
"Much like Tank Carradine last year, Easley can be drafted and stashed on the physically unable to perform list to start the season if need be. But in New England he's the second coming of Richard Seymour in that he will allow the Patriots to play either a 3-4 or 4-3 front without bringing him off the field. His athleticism—as long as it comes back post-surgery—is eye-opening for a man his size.
"
Miller went two for four on the picks, an impressive percentage for a team that ping-pongs around the first round as much as the Patriots do.
New Orleans Saints
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Miller's Picks: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (2013), Davante Adams, WR, Clemson (2014)
It looks like the New Orleans Saints would be in essentially the same boat they are today had Miller's picks played out.
In Georgia's Jarvis Jones, the Saints would have a player who oozed upside entering the NFL but just hasn't been able to put it together consistently on the field.
You know, instead of safety Kenny Vaccaro, a player who oozed upside entering the NFL bust just hasn't been able to put it together consistently on the field.
In 2014, Miller mocked Clemson wideout Davante Adams to the Big Easy:
"Davante Adams is like a junior version of Michael Crabtree. The redshirt sophomore isn't quite developed as a route-runner, but he has exceptionally strong hands, good vision and enough speed (4.56 combine 40-yard dash time) to keep things interesting after the catch. With his size and strength (6'1", 212 lbs) he could also allow Stills to play more in the slot, where he's a matchup nightmare for defenses.
"
Instead, the Saints traded up and went a different direction at the same position, drafting Oregon State's Brandin Cooks.
Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
New York Giants
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Miller's Picks: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford (2012), Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame (2013), Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina (2014)
If I didn't know better, I'd think Matt Miller saw a need at the tight end position for the New York Giants.
Back in 2012, it was Stanford's Coby Fleener:
"Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard are out with torn ACLs this season, leaving only the talented but unproven free agent Martellus Bennett at tight end. Fleener has the size and speed to open up the Giants offense with the loss of the tight ends and Mario Manningham.
"
Bennett played well, but after he left in free agency the next year Miller pointed the Giants toward Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame:
"Eli Manning does a great job scanning the field to find openings, and with a big, physical tight end like Eifert sitting down in zones and working up the seam, Manning's job would be considerably easier. The Notre Dame tight end prospect is like Jason Witten as a pass-catcher, and while he doesn't yet have similar blocking chops, he improved greatly in that regard between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
If Eifert can live up to his lofty pre-draft hype, the Giants offense will have a new weapon that few NFL defenders have the size and strength to stop in coverage.
"
When that didn't come to pass, Miller went the same route the following spring:
"One thing Manning hasn't had recently is a game-changer at tight end. Eric Ebron has the potential to be one right out of the gate.
Ebron's size-and-speed combination is elite, and he's an explosive player after the catch who can open up the middle of the field. Ebron is also a good blocker and can play in line to fuel the outside run game. He's a chess piece the offense can unleash in numerous ways, and that's really what the Giants have lacked.
"
Still no dice. But hey, Larry Donnell was pretty good last year, right? Does that count for anything?
New York Jets
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Miller's Picks: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (2012), Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU (2013), Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington (2013), Odell Beckham, WR, LSU (2014)
Hire this man, New York.
Granted, the Jets did draft Sheldon Richardson in 2013. Richardson went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, and Richardson is one of the better young 3-4 ends in the NFL.
However, as a whole Miller's three-year haul for the Jets is significantly better.
You can call Miller's pick of Mingo in 2013 over Richardson a "win" for the team. However, Miller gets those points right back with Trufant, who is rapidly becoming one of the league's elite cover men.
That's opposed to Dee Milliner, whose been injured and burned in coverage in equal amounts during his time in the Big Apple.
This past year, Miller proposed that the Jets draft LSU wideout Odell Beckham:
"Odell Beckham isn't just a wide receiver, though, as he has huge ability as a return man. Think of DeSean Jackson when trying to picture how a team will use the fleet-footed LSU wide receiver. He can line up in the slot, go in motion or play outside the hashes. With his speed, hands and after-the-catch skills, Beckham will open up the stale New York offense.
"
After the rookie season Beckham just had, I think it's a safe bet in hindsight the Jets would take him over Louisville safety Calvin Pryor.
Oakland Raiders
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Miller's Picks: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida (2013), Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn (2014)
You win some, and you lose some.
Two years ago, Miller suggested the Raiders spend the third overall pick in the 2013 draft on Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd:
"Floyd can be that pass-rushing presence in the Oakland front four. With his first-step quickness and pure pass-rushing acumen, he has the talent to step into this remade defense and become a star in the middle of the field.
"
Floyd actually fell much later in the round, and while he hasn't been a worldbeater he's fared better in the pros than Houston cornerback D.J. Hayden, who the Raiders drafted after trading back in the round.
In 2014, with the Raiders again picking in the top five, Miller went offense with Auburn beefeater Greg Robinson:
"Greg Robinson has the skills to come in and play multiple spots right away. He could start at right tackle for a season and then replace Penn on the left side. He could play right guard if they decide to keep Howard at tackle. But the fact of that matter is that the Raiders have no one on the roster with the potential of Robinson.
"
When all is said and done, Robinson may wind up a phenomanal lineman. However, it's hard to find fault with Oakland's actual selection, as linebacker Khalil Mack looks to be a cornerstone-type player for the Raiders defense.
We'll call this a one-one draw.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Miller's Picks: Quinton Coples, DE/OLB, North Carolina (2012), Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon (2013), Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn (2014)
We have another NFC East three-peat!
For the New York Giants, it was tight ends. Where Miller and the Philadelphia Eagles are concerned, it was all about edge rushers.
Back in 2012, with the Eagles still running a 4-3 defense, it was Quinton Coples of North Carolina:
"Coples "falls" a bit on draft day, but realistically, this is where he belongs. The Eagles will slide him in at defensive tackle—the position he had his most success at—while allowing him to work some at defensive end to pressure weaker tackles.
"
The next year, Miller proposed a reunion between new head coach Chip Kelly and Oregon end Dion Jordan:
"Dion Jordan is a natural athlete, and he fits the team's need for versatile defenders. You could argue that, with Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham, Trent Cole and Vinny Curry all potentially lining up at outside linebacker, this is not a major need any longer, but Jordan is different than the aforementioned players.
With his length, speed and raw athletic ability, Jordan can be a difference maker at the outside linebacker position.
"
In 2014, Dee Ford of Auburn was the proposed target:
"The Eagles picked up linebacker Connor Barwin in free agency last year, but they're rolling with Trent Cole and Brandon Graham opposite him. Neither player truly fits what the Eagles seem to want on defense, and an upgrade at outside linebacker is needed.
Dee Ford is an interesting player, because like Cole and Graham, he's not very big (6'2", 252 lbs). What he has going for him are incredibly long arms (32.875"), great first-step speed and a tenacity rarely seen in college pass-rushers. He may not fit the profile for many teams, but his explosion off the line would be tough to overlook in a 3-4 defense.
"
Jordan's been in more trouble off the field than big plays on it, and while Coples has been a serviceable starter in the NFL he's been far from an impact player for the Jets.
In that regard, it looks like the Eagles got the better end of this.
The jury remains out on 2014 first-rounder Marcus Smith (although early returns aren't promising), but both offensive tackle Lane Johnson (2013) and defensive end Fletcher Cox (2012) are quality starters.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Miller's Picks: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis (2012), Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State (2013), Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan (2014)
It's not easy to out-draft the Pittsburgh Steelers. Part of the reason the team has been so stable for so long is the franchise's ability to consistently do well on draft day.
Still, the argument could be made that at the very least Miller held his own.
Sure, David DeCastro has become one of the better young run-blocking guards in the NFL. But, Dontari Poe is none too shabby at playing the flip side of that coin in Kansas City.
Two years ago, Miller suggested Florida State's Bjoern Werner as a target for the Steelers:
"The Pittsburgh Steelers have long been rumored to be interested in the top pass-rushers in this year's class. With Florida State pass-rusher Bjoern Werner making a perceived drop down boards in the month before the draft, there's a good chance that the Steelers could find themselves in a position to add a powerful edge rusher at No. 17.
"
Werner hasn't been especially effective in the pros, but Jarvis Jones himself (the Steelers actual pick that year) admitted to Ed Bouchette of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that neither has he.
“These past two years is something I definitely can’t dwell on," Jones said "because it’s definitely not what I want to be.”
Both tackle Taylor Lewan and linebacker Ryan Shazier (the Steelers' pick at No. 15 last year) have shown potential but had their share of rookie struggles.
In other words, it's a toss-up.
St. Louis Rams
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Miller's Picks: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State (2012), Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (2013), Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (2013), Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson (2014), Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama (2014)
Quite the haul.
Thanks to the king's ransom that the St. Louis Rams obtained from Washington in the Robert Griffin trade, the Rams have had a pair of first-round picks each of the last two years. Three years ago the Rams traded down twice in Round 1, adding even more picks in the process.
Those extra picks allowed the Rams to draft wide receiver Tavon Austin and linebacker Alec Ogletree in 2013 and defensive tackle (and rookie of the year) Aaron Donald and tackle Greg Robinson last year.
Like I said, quite the haul.
However, it's hard not to prefer the group Miller assembled, even if it means giving up Donald to get it. After all, all five players Miller brought on board started for their respective teams a year ago, including Watkins:
"The Rams have invested heavily in wide receivers, but none have paid off. If this is the year to find out whether or not Sam Bradford can be the team's franchise quarterback, he needs weapons around him. Watkins would give them a legitimate option at wide receiver, filling the role Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Brian Quick and Chris Givens have struggled to step into.
Watkins brings size, power and speed to the position, and with Jared Cook, Kenny Britt and Austin Pettis also in the lineup, he could open things up in an offense that desperately needs a spark in the passing game.
"
Instead the team drafted Robinson, and the search for a No. 1 wide receiver marches on.
San Diego Chargers
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Miller's Picks: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU (2012), Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah (2013), Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State (2014)
For the esteemed Mr. Miller, the first round of the last three drafts for the San Diego Chargers has been all about fixing the defense.
In both 2012 and 2013, Miller predicted that the Chargers would look to a defensive tackle. In 2013, that led Miller to target Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei:
"He would be a true "best player available" pick, but he would also help fill a need on a talented young defensive line. Lotulelei can play nose tackle in a three-man front, and in passing situations he's able to kick down to a 3-technique and rush the quarterback.
"
With that said, the offensive tackle the Chargers so badly needed that year was still on the board, so the Chargers did what some considered a reach by selecting Alabama's D.J. Fluker.
The following season Miller suggested an upgrade in the secondary with Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard:
"The Chargers have immediate needs at cornerback—unless you like Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright. Even if they remain starters, NFL teams are in a three-cornerback (or more) formation over 50 percent of the time. The idea that a depth chart needs just two solid cornerbacks is outdated. That's why Darqueze Dennard is a smart pick here.
Dennard has the man-coverage skills you want, but he falls down the board due to questions about speed, injuries and a grabby coverage style that may hinder his translation to the NFL. But his zero coverage skills are defined, and that's worth a first-round pick.
"
Dennard was taken one pick earlier by the Cincinnati Bengals, so the Chargers settled on TCU's Jason Verrett as a consolation prize.
Given the play of the two cornerbacks last year, it looks like the Bolts did OK.
San Francisco 49ers
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Miller's Picks: Amini Silatolu, OT, Midwestern State (2012), Datone Jones, DE, UCLA (2013), Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State (2014)
We've seen a couple of instances in this article where Miller has pounded away at a perceived need for an NFL team.
The San Francisco 49ers have done that very thing in the draft itself over the past two seasons. In each of the last two drafts, the 49ers have selected a safety. Two years ago the team moved up to draft LSU's Eric Reid. He was joined a season ago by Jimmie Ward of Northern Illinois.
Even so, and even factoring in the unmitigated disaster that was the A.J. Jenkins pick in 2012, the 49ers did better in retrospective reality than they would have fared in Miller-land.
It's not that Silatolu and Jones weren't considered late first-rounders in their respective drafts. Both players were off the board by pick No. 40.
No, they just haven't been especially good as pros. Jones has enjoyed very little success getting to the quarterback in two years with the Packers, and Silatolu has missed 22 games for the Carolina Panthers since 2013.
Add in an injury-plagued first season for Robinson in 2014, and this crop looks much more bumpy than bumper.
Seattle Seahawks
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Miller's Picks: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (2012), Jason Verrett, CB, TCU (2014)
Back in 2012, Miller recommended that the Seahawks look to upgrade at middle linebacker:
"The signing of Barrett Ruud was nothing but a smokescreen to hide the Seahawks' love of Luke Kuechly. The Boston College product could start from day one as a middle or weak-side linebacker—both areas of need in Seattle.
"
Instead the Seahawks traded back in the round before drafting West Virginia defensive end Bruce Irvin. Everything worked out OK for the Seahawks at middle linebacker thanks to the addition of a young Utah State product named Bobby Wagner, but still...
The 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year wouldn't make the Seahawks any worse on defense. That's for sure.
The Seahawks traded their first-rounder in 2013, and then again on draft day last year. However, given how well cornerback Jason Verrett played as a rookie for the San Diego Chargers last year, imagining the youngster as a member of "The Legion of Boom" is um -- interesting.
Very interesting.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Miller's Picks: Matt Kalil, OT, USC (2012), Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M (2014)
Last spring Miller wrote that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be well-served to look long and hard at Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans:
"By adding a big body like Mike Evans to pair with Vincent Jackson, (head coach Lovie) Smith would have his big, post-up wide receivers to run a vertical offense with. Like Jeffery, Evans is an exceptional box-out receiver with strong hands and an incredible vertical ability (37" jump at the combine). His body control, focus and upside mirror that of the former South Carolina star.
If Evans can live up to the potential he flashed at A&M, the Buccaneers won't have to worry about one wide receiver spot for a long time.
"
Sure enough, the Bucs made Evans the seventh overall pick in last May's draft, and Evans repaid the team to the tune of over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.
It may well be that the Buccaneers should have listened to Miller back in 2012 as well.
Sure, Matt Kalil has hardly been dominant in his three years in Minnesota. In fact, he was the fourth-worst tackle in the entire NFL last year per Pro Football Focus.
Even then, at least he's still on his original team. The Buccaneers thought so highly of Mark Barron's performance over two-plus years in Tampa that they dealt the safety to the St. Louis Rams for a Day 3 pick last fall.
Tennessee Titans
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Miller's Picks: Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois (2012), Kenny Vaccaro, SS, Texas (2013), Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA (2014)
The defense has been an issue for the Tennessee Titans the past several years. So much so, in fact, that Matt Miller devoted the Titans' last three first-round picks to that side of the ball.
In 2012, it was reigning NCAA sack king Whitney Mercilus. That pick was followed up in 2013 with Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro:
"Kenny Vaccaro is a unique player in that he's able to play free safety, strong safety or nickel cornerback. That's the versatility that the Titans need in their defensive backfield. He's a smooth operator in the open field and could play either as a starter or sub-package player until the team moves on from the disappointing Michael Griffin.
"
This past May it was UCLA's Anthony Barr who got the nod from Miller:
"Anthony Barr isn't the safest pick, but he does have tremendous upside. At 6'5", 255 pounds, this former running back has serious athleticism and potential. In his two seasons as an outside linebacker for UCLA he showed tremendous growth and playmaking ability. And in Ray Horton's defense, Barr could become his John Abraham-type rusher.
The Titans will be tempted by other talent on the board, but Barr's upside is too good to pass up.
"
Well, the Titans passed all right. They passed on defense altogether.
All three of the Titans first-round picks over that span (guard Chance Warmack, tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver Kendall Wright) hailed from the offensive side of the ball.
There are just as many misses as hits on both "sides." Barr looked good as a rookie. Wright has had his moments.
If nothing else, the wide variance here just goes to show how differently two groups can view the same problem.
And the Titans defense remains the same old problem.
Washington Redskins
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Miller's Picks: Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor (2012)
100 percent accurate! Over the last three seasons, the esteemed Mr. Miller has correctly predicted every first-round pick the Redskins have made.
All one of them.
Back in 2012, Miller didn't mince words when discussing Baylor quarterback (and Heisman Trophy winner) Robert Griffin's impending arrival in the nation's capital.
"The Redskins traded three draft picks for the rights to get this man," Miller said. "The pressure is on."
Year 1 was great. An NFC East championship. A Rookie of the Year award for Griffin.
However, in their playoff loss to Seattle that year, Griffin tore his ACL, and he hasn't sniffed that sort of success since.
Team president Bruce Allen told SiriusXM Radio (via ESPN's Steve Keim) that there's still time for Griffin to realize the potential he showed back in 2012:
"He’s a confident young man, and he has a right to be. He has hardware in his den that says he’s performed very well. He is focused on getting better, and he wants to make sure medically and physically he’s prepared for the offseason program when it starts.
"
Washington has already named Griffin the starter for 2015, but make no mistake. Another year like the last two and the 'Robert Griffin trade" could take its place among all-time draft-day gaffes.
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