NFL Draft 2015: Biggest Surprises in 1st-Round Mock Draft

When you consider how many words get written about the NFL draft before the event takes place, it's hard to imagine there could be any surprises. There are literally going to be thousands of mock drafts on various websites for the next two months, after all. 

Yet when you break down what actually happens on draft night, there are always a handful of picks that make you stop to scratch your head. Raise your hand if you had Ja'Wuan James (Miami), Marcus Smith (Philadelphia) and Deone Bucannon (Arizona) as first-round picks. 

If your hand is up, put it down because you are lying. Yet that's what this draft process is, in addition to all of the evaluation that goes on. The shocks and surprises are big reasons why everyone keeps coming back to this. 

Every team has a plan coming into the draft, especially the first round, and does whatever it takes to execute it. Here's a look at an updated first-round mock draft, as well as a closer look at some of the surprises in it.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
4	Oakland Raiders	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
5	Washington	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
9	New York Giants	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
10	St. Louis Rams	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
11	Minnesota Vikings	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
12	Cleveland Browns	Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
16	Houston Texans	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
17	San Diego Chargers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami
25	Carolina Panthers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
26	Baltimore Ravens	Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
27	Dallas Cowboys	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	La'El Collins, G, LSU
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
31	Seattle Seahawks	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
32	New England Patriots	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

The Fall of Amari Cooper

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

For months, it's seemed like a guarantee that Amari Cooper would be taken no later than fourth overall by Oakland. While that possibility certainly remains, let's not overlook the fact that the Raiders defense still needs a lot of work. 

Also, the strength of this class is pass-rushers. There will be talent at wide receiver available in the second and third rounds, but the elite edge-rushers are going to come off the board in a hurry because of how valuable they have become. 

There's also the very real possibility that Cooper's numbers at Alabama have over-inflated his value. He's still a tremendous talent and should be the first receiver taken, but does that automatically make him a lock for the top five?

As B/R's Matt Miller says in the video embedded below, Cooper doesn't even come close to last year's top wideout Sammy Watkins as far as who would be taken first:

There's also a question about whether Cooper or West Virginia's Kevin White is the No. 1 wide receiver in this class. NFL Network's Mike Mayock, speaking to reporters in a conference call via Natalie Pierre of AL.com, has his opinion:

"

I think I know what Amari Cooper is, what a great football player he is. But I have Kevin White above him because I think he's got a higher ceiling. I think his potential is greater. He's 6-foot-3, 219 pounds, but I want to know what he runs. I have all over my notes that he's a 4.5-flat guy (in the 40-yard dash).

"

Given those factors, it doesn't seem out of line that Cooper can slide to St. Louis at No. 10. Between need and value, there really isn't a spot for the Alabama star if the Raiders pass on him. The New York Jets may pop him at No. 6, but that's only if the top two quarterbacks are off the board. 

Washington, Chicago, Atlanta and New York (Giants) are set at wide receiver and have more pressing needs. Cooper's ceiling is Oakland, but since the Raiders play in a division with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, defense is going to be a high priority. 

The Rise of Dorial Green-Beckham

Not to keep harping on wide receivers, but is there a more fascinating prospect this draft season than Dorial Green-Beckham? On pure talent, he's the best of the bunch. The former Missouri star is a physical freak at 6'4" and 225 pounds with speed and power to make plays in traffic. 

There's also another side to the Green-Beckham story that everyone knows about. He had various off-field issues after arriving at Missouri, to the point where he was dismissed from the program in 2014. The 21-year-old also has to prove he can get back into game speed after sitting out all last season at Oklahoma. 

Yet wherever you look, NFL people are raving about Green-Beckham's talent. Here's what one AFC college scout told NFL Network's Albert Breer:

"

He's one of the best receivers I've ever seen. He's special. He's gigantic; he has tremendous body control, balance; he runs like a deer and can leap out of the gym and high-point the ball. He's special. It's impressive. If not for all that stuff, he'd be the best receiver to come out since Calvin Johnson.

"

While it's up for debate if Green-Beckham will ever turn into Calvin Johnson—it's not likely but certainly not impossible—the fact there is merit in the argument speaks to the young man's talent. 

As for where Green-Beckham's maturity is at, Breer's report also touched on that issue:

"

According to the information gathered by a number of NFL evaluators, Green-Beckham walked the straight and narrow (at Oklahoma) as, in essence, a very well-known practice-squader last fall. He was there for early-morning workouts, quickly established himself as a star on the practice field and planned to stay for the 2015 season. 

"

The range of scenarios for Green-Beckham are astounding. He can go as high as the middle of the first round to a team in need of an outside playmaker (Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston, Kansas City), but it wouldn't be a surprise if he went on Day 2. 

Aaron Nagler of Sports Illustrated wrote on Twitter Green-Beckham should be the first wideout taken in the draft:

His talent is such that it's hard to find a scenario where some team doesn't take a chance on him in the third round, but if he can stay on the same path as the one he walked at Oklahoma, the possibilities are endless. 

The 49ers feel like Green-Beckham's starting point at No. 15. They certainly need help at wide receiver, regardless of what happens with Michael Crabtree's free agency, and have taken some chances in the recent past (Aldon Smith in 2011, Aaron Lynch in 2014). 

Lynch was a different story because he was a fifth-round pick, where the financial risk is exponentially less, but the fact there were positive early results could lead the front office to take another risk on a talented player. 

Denver's Perfect Fit

John Raoux/Associated Press

By all accounts, this is a bad draft for tight ends. It looks even worse if you consider Devin Funchess a wide receiver, though he did spend time at tight end before making the switch in 2014. 

However, there's one tight end who looks worthy of a look late in the first round. Minnesota's Maxx Williams is rising as this process continues thanks to his blend of size and speed. Dane Brugler of CBS Sports offered this comparison for Williams as he moves into the NFL:

Even though Kyle Rudolph has battled injuries the last two years, he was a red-zone nightmare in 2012 with nine touchdown catches on 53 receptions. Jason Witten is a borderline Hall of Famer who has caught at least 64 passes in 10 straight years. 

In other words, Williams is generating lofty praise from at least one prominent analyst. Bucky Brooks of NFL.com also said that he likes what the Minnesota product has to offer:

With the set-up out of the way, Williams' best potential destination looks like Denver. The Broncos have two key free agents to worry about this offseason: Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas. 

Demaryius Thomas is the safe bet to return, as Jeff Legwold of ESPN recently wrote the Broncos have "been prepared to place the franchise player tag" on him if they can't agree to a long-term deal. 

Julius Thomas has been a beast with Manning at quarterback, catching 24 touchdowns in the last two years. He's also battled injuries, missing five games during that stretch. The 26-year-old will certainly be looking to cash in on his success, though the Broncos must weigh risk vs. reward. 

Williams gives the Broncos a nice trump card to play if Thomas' agents try to hamstring them. He can do the same things as Thomas while costing significantly less in guaranteed dollars as a late-first-round draft pick. 

Manning has made a lot of tight ends a lot of money throughout his career—hello, Dallas Clark—so the idea that Thomas is irreplaceable in this offense is ludicrous. Williams may not be an immediate star because of the adjustment period but eventually will have his number called in the red zone.