Breaking Down Liverpool's Chances of Winning FA Cup
Liverpool came from behind to defeat Crystal Palace 2-1 on Saturday and secure passage to the FA Cup quarterfinals. The result makes it two crucial wins in a row for the club (the first being last week’s 3-2 league win over Spurs), and it has many believing the Reds could lift the cup in Wembley this spring.
A favorable quarterfinal draw against Championship side Blackburn Rovers has Liverpool fans feeling particularly optimistic for the next round, considering they were able to avoid the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United.
It’s understandable the supporters are getting excited about their prospects—after all, that’s what fans do—but does a Liverpool side still struggling with its identity in a post-Luis Suarez era really have what it takes to go the distance?
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If they are to capture England’s top domestic tournament prize, the Reds will need to do more than just beat the competition—they’ll also have to exorcise the demons of their recent past to regain the consistent form that has been elusive for much of this season.
Here are the key battles (both on and off the pitch) that Liverpool will have to win to complete their quest for FA Cup silverware.
Renewing Faith in Balotelli
Before anything else, Brendan Rodgers must find a way to bottle the lightening that is Mario Balotelli while the electricity is still in the air.
Balotelli may never regain the dedicated cheering section he had in the prime of his Manchester City career, but his game-winner against Tottenham had all the ingredients to reignite a positive relationship with Liverpool fans. If Rodgers can get the Italian striker to embrace his role as a super sub and make a difference in the second halves of matches, then the benefits will be twofold.
First, Liverpool would have a viable x-factor who could shake up opposing defenses if they successfully flummox the starting Reds forwards in the first half. Even the most dynamic forward duos and trios find themselves stifled by hard-nosed defenses at times, so having a late-game option to force defensive second guesses would be invaluable.
Even if he doesn’t score per se, the psychological threat associated with being an unpredictable forward is a weapon in itself.
Second, Rodgers can breath a personal sigh of relief if Balotelli can turn those whistles into goals. Regardless of whether or not the player chooses to pay attention to the boos and tabloid criticism, you can be certain his manager—the man who put his reputation on the line in August by agreeing to sign him—hears every scathing chant on the touchline.
Per BBC’s Tom Rostance and Gary Rose, Rodgers said after the Crystal Palace match: “Mario Balotelli has quality, and he has impacted on the two games this week really well.” On the surface that may seem like an innocuous comment, but there’s more lurking between those telltale lines.
Rodgers’ quote is not exactly a celebratory exercise in generating genuine superlatives for his player, like you might find at a press conference last year about Raheem Sterling or Daniel Sturridge. Rather, it’s the reaction of a manager who has been under fire all year trying to convince us his signing wasn’t already over the hill before he bought him.
Rodgers, perhaps more than anyone but Balotelli himself, needs his £16 million striker to regain some measure of consistent contribution.
If Balotelli can build on his form from the last two matches, it will not only give Rodgers another tactical option, but it will also allow the manager a bit of respite to focus wholly on those tactics rather than what the tabloids—and perhaps club owners—may be wondering about his ability to lead Liverpool.
Confidence is contagious. If Balotelli is confident, then Rodgers can be confident in him. If Rodgers is confident, then his players can feel comfortable shifting into the next gear without worrying if they’re headed in the right direction.
Stevie G’s Last Night in Town
This year’s FA Cup final will take place on Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard’s 35th birthday. If the Reds make it to that landmark Saturday, it would also be their final match of the season in all competitions.
Queue up Eye of the Tiger, because this is about to get epic.
Winning the world’s greatest domestic cup competition at the holy shrine of world soccer that is Wembley Stadium would undoubtedly be a deserving sendoff for one of England’s most legendary players of all time.
Gerrard’s teammates know this, and they will certainly be galvanized by their heroic captain’s desire to go out on top.
With the league title essentially out of the question, and the Europa league knockout stages still presenting a long and daunting road, the FA Cup is the captain’s most promising hope for one last piece of Liverpool silverware.
He’ll certainly bring his technical ability and vision to any starting XI, but Gerrard’s most valuable contribution to Rodgers’ side will be his experience and his aura as a living legend.
While Balotelli scoring goals is an obvious, tangible benefit for the side, Gerrard’s leadership is an equally important—though less tangible—benefit that could be the difference in the tightly contested final rounds of the tournament.
As long as Gerrard is on the pitch, his teammates won’t have to look far for inspiration from a man who has been there and done it all—he has twice won the FA Cup (2001, 2006).
Teammate Jordan Henderson told Liverpool FC magazine, per Charles Perrin of the Express, “Stevie's probably not only the best captain for Liverpool and before with England, but in the game itself.”
Sturridge echoed those thoughts, per Sky Sports, saying, “Words can't describe what he's done for Liverpool as well as his country. He's still a role model of mine. I look up to him, I think everyone in the squad does.”
Such sentiments illustrate that Gerrard is not just a seasoned professional, but that he has become a kind of father figure to his teammates.
The pieces are all set for a storybook finish—but can pure desire really overcome the depth of Arsenal’s squad or the ostentatious attacking talent of Manchester United in the semis?
While it may be impossible to quantify one man’s influence on a team’s psyche, one thing is for certain: Rodgers’ men will do everything in their power to win that final trophy for Stevie G.
But They’re Not in the Final Yet
Before we get too caught up in dreams of fairy-tale endings and ticker-tape parades, let’s remember there is still a considerable roadblock in the form of the Arsenal/Man U winner standing between Liverpool and the title.
No disrespect to Blackburn, who knocked off Premier League sides Swansea and Stoke to get this far, but the Reds should be more than capable of besting the Championship side if they’re firing on all cylinders at Anfield (which they look very capable of doing in the near future).
Aside from the uncharacteristic Martin Skrtel flub in the first half, the defensive mettle shown in the Crystal Palace win was a bright spot for Liverpool going forward.
As noted by ESPN’s David Usher, the Reds defenders “aren't perfect by any means, and the goal conceded at Palace at the weekend was a cheap one, yet once they got their noses in front they were able to close the game out without any drama.”
He gave further reason for cautious optimism by drawing positive comparisons to last year’s Liverpool—a team that often patched over (frankly alarming) defensive fissures with prolific scoring. Said Usher, “There's a defensive solidity about this current team that wasn't there last year.”
However, though that new defensive steel may sound plenty comforting by itself, even that back-line optimism pales in comparison to the shining beacon of hope that is an in-form Sturridge scoring goals after a long injury absence like it was 2013-14 all over again. His equalizer against Palace was a more-than-welcome blast from the past for Liverpool fans.
Regardless of who they face in the final stages, Rodgers will like his odds going forward. The trio of Sturridge, Sterling and Adam Lallana or Philippe Coutinho has the ability to stretch any side currently left in the tournament.
If Luis van Gaal insists on playing a 3-5-2, Liverpool’s high pressure will turn it into a 5-3-2 with Man U’s wingers becoming reluctant wing-backs. If Arsene Wenger tries to play the Reds like he played Tottenham in January, the Gunners' flanks will be overrun just like they were by Ryan Mason and co. in that north London derby.
True, at the other end of the pitch you could also say the likes of Angel Di Maria and Alexis Sanchez would pose a tremendous threat to Liverpool’s back three (if they persist with the same formation from the Palace match). But even in the worst-case scenario, the Reds have all the weapons for a potent counterpunch both on the counter and through more controlled buildup play.
The neutral fans out there wouldn’t mind a good, old-fashioned shootout in the semis, and—with the way things are shaping up—it looks like Liverpool might give us exactly that.
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