Ryan Tannehill Faces Make-or-Break Season for Miami Dolphins in 2015

The Miami Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft in an effort to find their franchise quarterback for the future.

Three years later, the Texas A&M product has yet to fully prove that he is who the Dolphins front office thought he was when they drafted him. There are multiple reasons for that—a shaky offensive line, a changing cast of pass-catchers and some of Tannehill's own shortcomings as well. 

But the 2015 season is put-up-or-shut-up time for Tannehill.

The Dolphins have until May 3 to decide on whether or not to pick up the fifth-year option on Tannehill's rookie contract. The fifth-year option rule for first-round picks was added to the 2011 collective bargaining agreement as a way to give teams even more control over the prospects that they draft and develop.

As a top-10 draft pick, the fifth-year option would pay Tannehill the equivalent of the quarterback's transition tag, according to Sports Illustrated's Andrew Brandt. The transition tag pays a player the greater number of either the average of the top 10 salaries at his position, or 120 percent of his previous year's salary. 

For Tannehill, the transition tag would be north of $20 million. Thus, Tannehill may be one of the rare instances where a team does not pick up the fifth-year option on its first-round pick. 

That means Tannehill would be a free agent after the 2016 season, free to sign with any team that offers him a deal. The question is, at this point, would the Dolphins' former first-round pick command a contract in line with starting-caliber quarterbacks, or would he be paid more closely to a backup? 

His second year in Bill Lazor's offense will give him an opportunity to prove he deserves the former, not the latter. 

Year	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yards	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
2012	282	484	58.3	3294	6.8	12	13	76.1
2013	355	588	60.4	3913	6.7	24	17	81.7
2014	392	590	66.4	4045	6.9	27	12	92.8

Tannehill's efficiency numbers went up dramatically in 2014, as he set career highs in completion percentage (66.4) and passer rating (92.8). That passer rating was in line with the likes of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (91.0), New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (92.1) and San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (93.8), all of whom make significantly more money than Tannehill.

That being said, all of those players are capable of creating big plays on a more consistent basis than Tannehill as well. In fact, all three of those players threw as many or more touchdowns than Tannehill, and all earned more yards per pass attempt as well.

The lack of dynamic playmaking ability for Tannehill has been an ongoing storyline throughout his career. For his career, Tannehill has been accurate on only 63 of 168 pass attempts (37.5 percent) that have traveled 20 yards or more through the air, according to Pro Football Focus. For comparison, that number would be the equivalent of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith's deep accuracy in 2014. 

Tannehill's inability to throw accurately downfield has hindered the Dolphins offense for years, and will have to improve if Tannehill is ever going to take that next step to becoming an elite franchise quarterback. 

Improvement in that area will help Tannehill round out his game to become the best quarterback he can possibly be. The tools are all there, from the functional athleticism to the arm strength to the accuracy, but only when the Dolphins are able to maximize their big-play threats will they ever realize their full potential on offense.

Tannehill should also be thinking about improving his situational performance on third downs, in the red zone, etc., according to Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel:

In 2014, Tannehill completed 59.6 percent of his throws inside the red zone, with 24 touchdowns, but the Dolphins still only converted 51.5 percent of their red-zone possessions into touchdowns, which ranked 21st in the NFL. They also only converted 40 percent of their third-down attempts, which ranked 15th. 

Quarterbacks like Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo have all earned nice paydays despite question marks around their ability to lead their team to the promised land. Tannehill doesn't necessarily have to win the Super Bowl this year in order to prove that he's worth his weight in gold as a quarterback, but he does need to display improvement in certain areas.

Unless otherwise noted, all advanced stats acquired by ProFootballFocus.com.