Power Ranking the NASCAR Sprint Cup Drivers Ahead of the 2015 Season
The Daytona 500 is finally here, or will be this Sunday when the green flag is dropped on the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season at Daytona International Speedway.
Based only slightly on past performance and mostly on what appears to be imminent potential, determined by not just a driver's ability but his communication with his crew chief, the effectiveness of his pit crew, and the speed of the race cars his shop is able to provide him with, it's time to rank the top 43 Sprint Cup drivers.
After the opening practices, the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race and Daytona 500 qualifying (although the field won't be set until Thursday's Budweiser Duels are completed), the early frontrunners as organizations appear to be Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing.
"One weekend is in the books at Daytona International Speedway, and already two organizations are standing out ahead of the competition," wrote Jay Pennell of Fox Sports.
"Through the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 qualifying, the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets and Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have shown speed, ability to work through the draft, and one car from each organization has already gone to Victory Lane"...(JGR's Matt Kenseth in the Sprint Unlimited and Hendrick's Jeff Gordon after claiming the 500 pole in qualifying).
Here, then, are how the individual drivers and their teams from those organizations compare to each other and the rest of those who figure to be in the mix running up front as the season gets underway.
31-43. Drivers Bringing Up the Rear
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31. Landon Cassill. 2015 Outlook: Despite the fact he's been around for a while, Cassill is still only 25 and has shown some promise.
32. Justin Allgaier. 2015 Outlook: Once considered a promising young driver, his career appears to be going nowhere fast.
33. Cole Whitt. 2015 Outlook: He'll be in a third full-time ride for Front Row Motorsports, which should have concentrated on getting its other two teams better first.
34. Alex Bowman. 2015 Outlook: Bowman is the perfect example of a young driver who should be gaining experience in a lower series.
35. David Gilliland. 2015 Outlook: He has run nearly 300 Cup races over the last nine years and never won, nor finished higher than 26th in points.
36. Josh Wise. 2015 Outlook: His claim to fame is that the Reddit community got behind him on the Internet and got him in last year's All-Star Race.
37. Jeb Burton. 2015 Outlook: The son of former Daytona 500 winner Ward Burton and nephew of former Cup driver Jeff Burton has never run in the Cup.
38. Ron Hornaday Jr. 2015 Outlook: The four-time Truck Series champion is back in the Cup Series for the first time since 2003.
39. Michael McDowell. 2015 Outlook: McDowell will run roughly a 20-race schedule for Leavine Family Racing.
40. Ryan Blaney. 2015 Outlook: Wood Brothers Racing recently announced it will expand Blaney's Cup schedule to 18 races. (He's also running full time for Team Penske in the Xfinity Series).
41. Brendan Gaughan. 2015 Outlook: He will drive most of the Cup schedule for Premium Motorsports, but his main focus will be in a Richard Childress Racing ride in the Xfinity Series.
42. Michael Annett. 2015 Outlook: Annett is driving a second full-time car for HScott Motorsports, at least for now.
43. J.J. Yeley. 2015 Outlook: The former Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been named primary driver for BK Racing, but at least he's back in Cup.
21-30. Drivers Who Will Want the Season to End Before November
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21. Greg Biffle. 2015 Outlook: Biffle's best years, and those of Roush Fenway Racing, appear to be behind him and them.
22. Aric Almirola. 2015 Outlook: After making the Chase last year by virtue of a rain-shortened win at Daytona in July, he'll come up dry this season.
23. Brian Vickers. 2015 Outlook: After undergoing corrective heart surgery in the offseason, Vickers is expected to be back behind the wheel of his Michael Waltrip Racing ride by the third race of the season in early March (per FoxSports.com).
24. Paul Menard. 2015 Outlook: Per his usual way, he'll likely string together a few good runs, but not enough of them.
25. Sam Hornish Jr. 2015 Outlook: His return to the Sprint Cup scene is likely to look a whole lot like the last time he left it.
26. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2015 Outlook: At least he should be able to finish ahead of his girlfriend, Danica Patrick, in the points.
27. Trevor Bayne. 2015 Outlook: The winner of the 2011 Daytona 500 wants to prove it was no fluke, but he's struggling to do so.
28. Casey Mears. 2015 Outlook: Everybody knows Mears drives the Geico-sponsored car, and that he has little chance of achieving much in it.
29. Danica Patrick. 2015 Outlook: This could be her last chance to prove she belongs with all the boys in Sprint Cup.
30. David Ragan. 2015 Outlook: Ragan's only hope is to duplicate the magic he once caught in a 2013 restrictor-plate win at Talladega.
11-20. Drivers on the Bubble for Making the 2015 Chase
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11. Kyle Busch. 2015 Outlook: Busch should make the Chase, but might get off to a slow start with new crew chief Adam Stevens.
12. Kasey Kahne. 2015 Outlook: Kahne also has a new crew chief for the first time since 2005, with Keith Rodden replacing Kenny Francis.
13. Tony Stewart. 2015 Outlook: Stewart wants to put a tumultuous, terrible 2014 season far behind in his rear-view mirror.
14. Jamie McMurray. 2015 Outlook: The winner of last year's non-points Sprint All-Star Race is looking to make the Chase for the first time.
15: Clint Bowyer. 2015 Outlook: It's hard to believe he has gone more than two full seasons without winning a race.
16: Ryan Newman. 2015 Outlook: Newman proved last year that you don't necessarily have to win a race to make a run at the title.
17: AJ Allmendinger. 2015 Outlook: He and his JTG Daugherty Racing team have the two road courses circled on the calendar.
18. Austin Dillon. 2015 Outlook: After a disappointing rookie season, he's eager to get the No. 3 Chevy back to Victory Lane.
19. Kurt Busch. 2015 Outlook: His legal troubles continue to cast a cloud on not just his season, but his entire Sprint Cup career.
20. Martin Truex Jr. 2015 Outlook: He's hoping to prove his second-place finish in the Sprint Unlimited was no fluke.
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10. Kyle Larson
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Final 2014 Ranking: Not Ranked
Why He's Here: Larson did not win a single Cup race as a rookie last season, but he came close, finishing second three times. This year he was part of the winning team in the Rolex 24 at Daytona and seems poised to reach Victory Lane sooner rather than later in his No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates Chevrolet.
Daytona 500 Outlook: He finished fifth in the Sprint Unlimited non-points exhibition last Saturday at Daytona. But he followed that up with a disappointing qualifying effort that ranked 37th on Sunday. Honestly, Daytona does not seem to be his kind of place—as last year in his first two Cup starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway he finished 38th and 36th, respectively. He doesn't seem poised to do a whole lot better this year.
2015 Season Outlook: Even if he struggles at Daytona, Larson figures to break through and win more than once in his sophomore season. That will qualify him for the Chase for the Sprint Cup, where his hard-charging style might just produce a surprisingly strong run at a championship.
9. Joey Logano
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Final 2014 Ranking: 3
Why He's Here: Logano is coming off a breakthrough 2014 season in which he won a career-high five races and remained in contention to win his first championship until his pit crew bungled a late stop in the season finale, winner-takes-all race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Logano finished sixth in the Sprint Unlimited, but was only 21st-fastest in Daytona 500 qualifying. The fact that his only Team Penske teammate is Brad Keselowski, who also struggled to find speed in qualifying, might limit Logano's options on race day as to which drivers he works with in the draft.
The key to the 500 for Logano, then, might end up being rookie Ryan Blaney, who will run a full Xfinity schedule for Team Penske but will be in the No. 21 Ford for Wood Brothers Racing for a limited Cup schedule, including the 500.
2015 Season Outlook: Logano and crew chief Todd Gordon displayed uncommon chemistry in terms of communication and being able to agree on the right adjustments to the race car during practices and actual races. That's always a key and can be built upon. But at some point, having only one full-time teammate in the Cup may hurt Logano in terms of the limited amount of data they're able to use to improve their speed and make other adjustments.
8. Denny Hamlin
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Final 2014 Ranking: 6
Why He's Here: The resourceful Hamlin won only one race last season, yet was consistent enough during the Chase for the Sprint Cup to make the Championship 4 race in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. And if Darian Grubb, then his crew chief, had not gambled and lost on keeping him out on older tires, or if the race's late cautions had not come in bunches, Hamlin might even have stolen the title.
This year, Dave Rogers has replaced Grubb atop his pit box, and it appears the folks at Toyota Racing Development and Joe Gibbs Racing have given Hamlin and his teammates more speed in their engines.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Hamlin was third fastest in qualifying, but his No. 11 Toyota failed post-race inspection after it was discovered the "exceeded the maximum split for the rear track bar, which is limited to 3 inches," according to FoxSports.com. Now he'll have to start his Thursday Budweiser Duel from the rear, and no one is certain if his car, once legal, will be as fast. So that muddies the waters for him heading into Thursday, when he hopes to prove he can still contend for the win on Sunday.
2015 Season Outlook: Hamlin is optimistic about his pairing with Rogers, who previously was Kyle Busch's crew chief. He has reason to be, as they worked together with great success in the then-Nationwide Series back in 2007 and 2008. Both could benefit from a fresh start with each other.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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Final 2014 Ranking: 5
Why He's Here: Yes, we know Earnhardt Jr. is the defending champion of the Daytona 500 after winning it in dramatic fashion a year ago. We know he won four races last year, the most he's won in a decade. But he begins this season with a new crew chief in Greg Ives, and there could be an adjustment period.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Junior led 13 laps and finished ninth in the Sprint Unlimited, which wasn't bad, and then qualified a respectable 10th for the 500. There was one problem, though. During post-race inspection after qualifying, Earnhardt's No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy was ruled too low in the left front. As a result, Earnhardt will have to start at the rear of the field in his Budweiser Duel at Daytona 150 race this Thursday. "Makes the duels a lot more interesting," Earnhardt Jr. said on his Twitter account (per FoxSports.com).
2015 Season Outlook: Getting penalized this early in the new partnership with Ives is an inauspicious start. But all will be forgotten if Earnhardt Jr. is fast in the 500 and earns a good finish. He may not win, just as he may not match his win total or overall success of last season under previous crew chief Steve Letarte, but the rest of the Sprint Cup field will know he's there even though this season may be more about building a better foundation for the future.
6. Brad Keselowski
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Final 2014 Ranking: 2
Why He's Here: Last year Keselowski won a series-high six races, even though he didn't make it into the Championship 4 round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. He also ticked off lots of fellow competitors along the way, raising the legitimate question of whether that will come back to haunt him more than once as this season progresses.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Keselowski got wrecked out early in the Sprint Unlimited, finishing last in the 25-car field. He also struggled to show speed in his No. 2 Team Penske Ford during qualifying, registering the 19th-fastest lap time. None of that appears to bode well for him in the season-opening race.
2015 Season Outlook: Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe are one of the new power couples in the Sprint Cup garage, so they likely will win multiple races this season. But you have to wonder how long Team Penske, which runs two full-time Cup teams, can compete with the mega-teams twice their size that have stronger, deeper technical alliances as well. As a result, Team Penske could take a small step back overall this season.
5. Matt Kenseth
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Final 2014 Ranking: 10
Why He's Here: After winning a career-high seven races and finishing second in the Chase in 2013, last season was a disappointment for Kenseth and crew chief Jason Ratcliff as they failed to win a single race. Although it was a non-points exhibition, Kenseth already has rectified that to some extent by going to Victory Lane in last Saturday's Sprint Unlimited.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Kenseth will be a factor in his No. 20 Toyota in Sunday's race. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising at all if he wins his Budweiser Duel on Thursday after he flashed the fourth-fastest lap time in qualifying last Sunday, less than 24 hours after winning the Sprint Unlimited.
2015 Season Outlook: Kenseth, who will soon turn 43, has never gone consecutive seasons without winning a points-paying race since beginning his career as a full-time Cup driver in 2000. It won't happen this season, either, which means Kenseth will be in the Chase again. And this time, Ratcliff likely will be able to find the speed in the car that Kenseth will need to make a real run at another title (he won one in 2003, NASCAR's last pre-Chase season).
4. Carl Edwards
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Final 2014 Ranking: 9
Why He's Here: We've seen this before at Joe Gibbs Racing. A driver from another prominent team joins JGR and goes on to have a banner first season with his new crew. It happened for Kyle Busch in 2008 and again with Matt Kenseth in 2013, and it seems Edwards is poised to cash in on the same type of magic again this season.
Daytona 500 Outlook: He finished third in the Sprint Unlimited and was seventh fastest in Daytona 500 qualifying, both of which were positive signs. The JGR stable of cars showed decent speed as a whole in both events, with Kenseth winning the Unlimited, and that's another positive sign because they will need to work together in the draft to have success in the Duel races this Thursday and during Sunday's main event.
2015 Season Outlook: Edwards absolutely loves working with his new crew chief, Darin Grubb, even going so far as to call him "a genius" (per NASCAR.com). The sense is that they will be a formidable pair and that they're already on the same page because they're both looking for a fresh start (Grubb previously was Denny Hamlin's crew chief).
3. Jimmie Johnson
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Final 2014 Ranking: 8
Why He's Here: As a six-time Sprint Cup champion, you can never count Johnson out. He fell out of the Chase for the Sprint Cup earlier than he would have liked last season and doesn't care for the new elimination-style format, but that's a long way away.
For now, the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports and his crew chief, Chad Knaus, are focused on redemption and were fast enough to qualify on the outside of the front row for the Daytona 500.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Starting on the outside of Row 1 alongside HMS teammate and pole-sitter Jeff Gordon is a good place to begin the first race of the season. Like many top drivers, he has a feast-or-famine record in NASCAR's biggest race. He won it for the second time in 2013 and finished fifth last season, but in the six 500s between his inaugural win in 2006 and the 2013 triumph, he never finished higher than 27th with an average finish of 33.5.
2015 Season Outlook: Now that they've had one year to figure it out, it would be shocking if Johnson and Knaus don't determine a way to fare better in the new Chase format and advance to the Championship 4 at Homestead.
2. Jeff Gordon
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Final 2014 Ranking: 4
Why He's Here: Retirement party, anyone? Gordon already has announced this will be his final Daytona 500 and his last full-time Sprint Cup season. So was anyone surprised he won the pole for this Sunday's race? He seems focused and determined to go out on top in his final shot at a fifth championship.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Starting from the pole at Daytona typically means very little. But there is a growing feeling in the Sprint Cup garage, as articulated by none other than Jimmie Johnson (per FoxSports.com), that Gordon and all of the Hendrick Motorsports teams might be a step ahead of most competitors heading into Sunday's 2015 season opener. That bore out in qualifying and obviously bodes well for Gordon, who would love to open a storybook season with yet another signature win for his career.
2015 Season Outlook: No one on the No. 24 team or in the Hendrick shop wants to let Gordon down in this special season. That gives everyone from crew chief Alan Gustafson down to the every member of the pit crew, and every engineer and mechanic at Hendrick special motivation to make certain he consistently has the best equipment to drive. Gordon can still do the rest, so look out.
1. Kevin Harvick
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Final 2014 Ranking: 1
Why He's Here: Until someone knocks the defending Sprint Cup champ from the top of the roost, he deserves to remain No. 1. Last year Harvick piled up five wins, a series-high six poles and 2,137 laps led on the season. That was nearly 600 more laps led than any other driver in the series, proving that crew chief Rodney Childers consistently puts fast race cars under him.
Daytona 500 Outlook: Harvick has his work cut out for him. He finished 11th in the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race and his top speed in qualifying was just 29th fastest. But none of that will matter if Childers can find speed in the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevy in time for Harvick to excel in Thursday's Duels and in the more important race to follow this Sunday, where you can come from virtually anywhere to challenge for the win if you can steer out of harm's way.
2015 Season Outlook: No matter what happens in the 500, Harvick obviously is going to be a factor in the championship mix this season. He was too dominant at times last season and he has been allowed to keep the pit crew that began last season servicing Tony Stewart's car, which should eliminate many of the pit-road problems that actually cost him several other race wins a year ago.
The only problem to watch for is whether his SHR team poured so much into winning the title last season that it possibly could have fallen behind in preparing for this season, which could mean the No. 4 team gets off to a slower-than-expected start.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as assisting in coverage of NASCAR for FoxSports.com as a writer, editor and digital content producer. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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