Dion Phaneuf Could Be Trade Bait, but What Can the Maple Leafs Get for Him?

What is Dion Phaneuf worth?

With the Toronto Maple Leafs embarking on a rebuild, according to Cathal Kelly of The Globe and Mail, almost no one on the roster is safe. Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli were traded to the Nashville Predators Sunday. A few core players have been identified and Phaneuf, not surprisingly, isn't one of them.

There is no guarantee a Phaneuf deal happens before the March 2 trade deadline. Heck, it's not even a guarantee the deal happens in the summer or at all. Finding a willing partner to take Phaneuf and a $7 million cap hit that runs through 2021 won't be easy.

At least the Leafs are open to the idea.

So, again, what is Phaneuf worth? Based on his contract, age and production, it's not an easy answer.

1. Tell us a little about yourself

"Hi. My name is Dion. I play left defense for the Toronto Maple Leafs. I enjoy booming slap shots, booming hits and participating in emotionless fights every time my team falls behind by two goals."

Phaneuf will turn 30 in April. He will be 36 when his contract expires. He will earn $8 million next season, then $7.5 million, $7 million, $6.5 million, $6.5 million and then $5.5 million in the final five years of the deal. While the cap hit is $7 million, the actual money paid to Phaneuf slowly declines over the life of the deal.

What does he do on the ice?

Time	Goals	Assists	Points	Shots	TOI
2013-2015	19 (34th)	62 (29th)	81 (29th)	317 (34th)	4,202 (20th)
2014-15	2 (76th)	20 (30th)	22 (44th)	84 (45th)	23:05 (35th)

A lot, actually. He has played a little more than 23 minutes per game the past two seasons after playing more than 25 minutes a game in his previous three seasons in Toronto. He leads the way on the power play and penalty kill as well, playing more than any other Leafs defenseman on special teams.

Phaneuf is good for about 30 or 40 points per season. He usually touches the 10-goal mark or something close to it, although he's down to only two goals this season.

Possession-wise, Phaneuf has been living in the low 40s the past three seasons when it comes to Fenwick. He's been a negative Fenwick-relative over that time, which is partly a product of matching up against top-six forwards, partly a product of being part of a team that's a garbage-filled toxic waste dump site and partly Phaneuf just not being that great. 

2. No. 1 comparables

The Leafs deploy Phaneuf like a No. 1 defenseman, but is he a No. 1 defenseman? 

Player	Team	Age	TOI	Pts (3-year)	Fenwick	Cap hit
Francois Beauchemin	ANA	34	22:39	54	50.5	$3.5M
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	ARI	23	25:03	97	50.3	$5.5M
Zdeno Chara	BOS	37	22:49	72	52.8	$6.9M
Zach Bogosian	BUF	24	22:17	38	49.8	$5.1M
Mark Giordano	CGY	31	25:06	106	47.9	$4.0M
Justin Faulk	CAR	22	24:10	81	52.0	$4.8M
Duncan Keith	CHI	31	25:43	114	55.5	$5.5M
Erik Johnson	COL	26	24:25	66	46.9	$3.75M
Jack Johnson	CBJ	28	23:55	78	45.0	$4.4M
Alex Goligoski	DAL	29	23:40	95	54.1	$4.6M
Niklas Kronwall	DET	34	23:36	109	49.4	$4.75M
Justin Schultz	EDM	24	21:58	81	50.5	$3.7M
Brian Campbell	FLA	35	23:37	81	54.1	$7.1M
Drew Doughty	LAK	25	29:24	91	56.2	$7.0M
Ryan Suter	MIN	30	29:15	105	53.4	$7.5M
P.K. Subban	MTL	25	25:55	130	52.8	$9.0M
Shea Weber	NSH	29	26:33	124	50.5	$7.8M
Andy Greene	NJD	32	23:29	60	49.7	$5M
Johnny Boychuk	NYI	31	21:42	54	59.8	$3.3M
Ryan McDonagh	NYR	25	23:06	82	47.6	$4.7M
Erik Karlsson	OTT	24	27:02	124	50.0	$6.5M
Mark Streit	PHI	37	22:19	108	48.0	$5.25M
Kris Letang	PIT	27	25:23	104	56.5	$7.25M
Brent Burns	SJS	29	24:15	112	52.2	$5.76M
Alex Pietrangelo	STL	25	25:17	105	52.2	$6.5M
Victor Hedman	TBL	24	22:22	100	54.4	$4.0M
Alexander Edler	VAN	28	24:10	59	54.2	$5.0M
John Carlson	WSH	25	23:17	97	52.0	$3.96M
Dustin Byfuglien	WPG	29	23:01	124	52.6	$5.2M
29-player average	AVG	28.2	24:18	91.4	51.8	$5.5M
Dion Phaneuf	TOR	29	23:05	81	45.5	$7M

There are plenty of reasons why that chart is not an airtight, scientific argument. Some teams have a pretty even deployment of their top four defensemen (Anaheim, Winnipeg), some teams have No. 2 defensemen (Roman Josi, T.J. Brodie) that have excellent No. 1-type numbers, some players (Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Burns) have amassed numbers at the forward position and contracts are signed at different times in different situations.

It's apples and oranges and bananas and pears, and there's maybe a plantain in there.

It's merely a loose guide for comparing No. 1 defensemen today, and there's no getting around the fact that Phaneuf, while he's used as one in Toronto, may not be one. Phaneuf earns more money and produces less than his peers, although he's not far from the average.

Would his numbers, especially possession, be better on a better team? No doubt. 

But how much better?

If Phaneuf was riding shotgun with Shea Weber, he'd probably look a lot better. 

Although, anyone who has watched Phaneuf the last couple years can tell you how slow-footed and overmatched he looks at times, which is not an endorsement for a change of scenery helping Phaneuf. If Steven Stamkos is rolling past Phaneuf in Toronto, he can roll past him in another city.

This is where Phaneuf may become a prisoner of his own contract.

It's easy to believe that if Phaneuf was dropped to a second pairing, he could be among the best second-tier defensemen in the league. The problem is that Leafs general manager Dave Nonis gave him first-pairing money, which makes it hard for a team to commit to Phaneuf until he's 36 years old. Salaries will rise over that time, making the cap hit less embarrassing, but Phaneuf is guaranteed to decline as well.

3. Who can take him?

Acquiring Phaneuf requires not only space now but the ability to budget for his contract through 2021. There are cheaper options available at this year's deadline, options with contracts that will come off the books once the season concludes, so he's not a rental.

Phaneuf has a modified no-trade clause, although one has to think he'd accept a trade to Siberia if it got him out of Toronto.

Darren Calabrese/Associated Press

Interestingly enough, the Calgary Flames have a ton of cap space, a rock-solid top pairing with Giordano and Brodie, and Brian Burke, the man who brought Phaneuf to Toronto from Calgary, sitting in the president's chair. Whether the Flames have the assets to bring Phaneuf back is another question, although Hockey's Future had their prospect group ranked second entering the season.

If there's one team with the flexibility to make a trade now or in the summer, it's Calgary.

Beyond that, it's even less-informed speculation than the Calgary idea. Buffalo has the room, but Phaneuf would still be a top-pairing guy on a bad team, so that doesn't seem to work. 

Phaneuf may not look great on paper, but he's a massive, experienced defenseman, and there will be GMs interested in him, probably as a No. 1 even if he's miscast in that role.

4. So what's he worth?

Trading Phaneuf during the offseason makes the most sense, when more teams can assess their payroll situation and decide if they need Phaneuf. It's hard to find great fits because most teams are set with their top two defensemen and don't have the room for a $7 million No. 3. There's a market for Phaneuf, no question, but it's probably not a big one. And the teams in desperate need for a No. 1 aren't very good, which may result in Phaneuf nixing a potential deal.

Phaneuf is a defenseman in that grey area between top pairing and second pairing with a first-pairing contract. Assuming the Leafs do not retain salary (which would be crazy if they did), Phaneuf is probably worth a first-round pick, another pick, one solid prospect and a useful player off an NHL roster. 

All statistics via NHL.com. Advanced stats via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. Contract info via Spotrac.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.