Jordan Cameron's High-Risk, High-Reward Status Worth the Gamble in Free Agency

Cleveland Browns tight end Jordan Cameron proved in 2013 that his ceiling on the football field is sky-high. In 2014, Cameron suffered a shoulder injury and a concussion.

That, combined with the mess that was the Cleveland Browns, tanked Cameron's production. He went from 80 catches in 2013 to 24 in 2014.

Cameron will be a terrific test case going forward. How will NFL decision-makers react to free agents with known long-term concussion problems? The Browns sat Cameron for more than a month due to a concussion.

According to Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith, Cameron has suffered three concussions in the last two seasons.

Both parties seem to want to leave the other behind here. According to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com, Cameron has no interest in returning. Meanwhile, ESPN Cleveland's Tony Grossi put the odds of the Browns re-signing Cameron at 1 percent:

It's hard to fault the 26-year-old for wanting to leave what appears to be a dysfunctional organization. In that context, it is understandable why Cleveland would let him walk. Stupid, but understandable.

Cameron mixes considerable talents and considerable risk. It seems like a franchise tag situation if I've ever seen one.

The tight end tag is often one of the cheapest tags. This year, La Canfora reports it's projected to be about $8.2 million. Cleveland would be able to lock in Cameron for a season without committing to him. That's a win-win for a team that knows how talented Cameron is.

Is Cleveland ignoring the franchise tag option because officials worry about Cameron's health? Or is the team ignoring the franchise tag option because, well, it's Cleveland?

Normally, I would be much more concerned about chasing a receiver with known concussion issues. But these are the Browns. A team led by a micromanaging owner whom the government indicted. The Browns have fired an entire front office of coaches and staff over the past two seasons.

The only stock to put in their opinions at the moment is laughingstock.

Look back at 2013, and you'll see Cameron is a special receiver when healthy:

Year	DYAR (Rk)	DVOA (Rk)	Catch Rate
2013	99 (9)	5.6% (21)	68%
2014	-33 (41)	-17.4% (38)	50%

Cameron doesn't have the most brilliant advanced statistical line, but he was also put in a situation where it'd be almost impossible for him to do that.

In 2013, his quarterbacks were Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden. The leading receivers after Josh Gordon were Greg Little and Davone Bess. Gordon and Cameron had to absorb a ton of targets for that team. Nobody else was going to catch the football.

I believe Cameron is a solid buy-low opportunity. I expect his contract terms to be quite fair because of his concussions and lack of a track record.

Cameron likely walks out of free agency with a middle-class tight end contract. My guess is something around what fellow tight ends Dennis Pitta and Martellus Bennett were able to get.

Though Cameron has shown a higher ceiling than those two, I still expect the health concerns to take their toll on his new deal.

Player	Years	Total Dollars	Guaranteed Dollars
Dennis Pitta	5	$32 million	$16 million
Martellus Bennett	4	$20.4 million	$5.2 million

Seattle has been linked to Cameron. Per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, they tried to trade Percy Harvin for Cameron in the middle of last season. That would be a nice landing spot for Cameron. My expectation is that Seattle won't get involved unless the price is much lower.

However, there are many other teams out there with the cap space to dictate where Cameron's market should be. The Atlanta Falcons did not find a real replacement for Tony Gonzalez last year. The Buffalo Bills can't keep running Scott Chandler out there forever. Jacksonville could use an upgrade on Marcedes Lewis.

Cameron should emerge as a solid gamble somewhere. The only question is where the concussions will force his market to settle.

If it's for lower than I expect, Cameron could be one of the steals of the offseason.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.