Complete Seattle Mariners 2015 Spring Training Preview
After an exciting winter, the Seattle Mariners are nearly ready to begin the 2015 season.
Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 20 to officially start spring training. Coming off of an encouraging 87-75 season and bolstered by some key offseason acquisitions, Seattle appears to be in its best shape to compete for the postseason in a number of years.
The Mariners found out just how much of an impact spring training can make prior to last season. Both Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker went down with injuries, leaving Seattle's projected rotation in a bit of disarray.
Fortunately, the Mariners got a great season out of Chris Young and were able to discover a diamond in the rough in Roenis Elias due to the injuries. With less apparent depth this year, Seattle's No. 1 priority in the spring is to have everyone healthy for Opening Day.
Seattle won't have many roster battles to decide, with the majority of the starting lineup and rotation set. Still, those two or three spots up for grabs will be critical for a team on the fringe of contention.
All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise indicated.
Offseason Recap
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Key Additions
| DH Nelson Cruz | 271/.333/.525 40 HR 137 wRC+ 3.9 WAR |
| OF Justin Ruggiano | .281/.337/.429 6 HR 113 wRC+ 0.4 WAR |
| OF Seth Smith | .266/.367/.440 12 HR 133 wRC+ 2.6 WAR |
| SP J.A. Happ | 4.22 ERA 4.27 FIP 3.95 xFIP 1.3 WAR |
UTIL Rickie Weeks | .274/.357/.452 8 HR 127 wRC+ 1.2 WAR |
Minor League Free-Agent Signings With Spring Training Invites
UTIL Shawn O'Malley, OF Endy Chavez, OF Franklin Gutierrez, C John Baker, RHP Justin Germano, 3B Carlos Rivero, RHP Mark Lowe
It's hard to argue that the Mariners didn't have a successful offseason. They addressed their biggest weaknesses while only losing a couple of players and held on to every piece of long-term significance.
There are plenty of red flags with Cruz, but he's all but guaranteed to be an improvement over the minus-2.1 WAR total the Mariners got out of the designated hitter position in 2014. The platoon of Smith and Ruggiano is also a nice boost to a right field position that previously returned only players who were below replacement level.
In a strict platoon, Smith and Ruggiano could put up similar numbers to someone like Justin Upton, who would have cost a lot more to attain. Add in Happ, who appears to be a good fit in Safeco Field, and the Mariners made four acquisitions who will contribute in a meaningful way.
Weeks is an interesting addition, as he put up good offensive numbers a year ago with the Milwaukee Brewers. His defense is poor, but Weeks could be a useful bat off the bench—the only player to put up a better wRC+ on Seattle's roster in 2014 was Robinson Cano.
Key Losses
| OF Michael Saunders | .273/.341/.450 8 HR 126 wRC+ 1.9 WAR |
RP Brandon Maurer | 4.65 ERA 3.49 FIP 4.06 xFIP 0.7 WAR |
SP Chris Young | 3.65 ERA 5.02 FIP 5.19 xFIP 0.2 WAR |
RP Joe Beimel | 2.20 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.17 xFIP -0.2 WAR |
The Mariners did a nice job with trades overall, but they did lose a couple of important pieces from the 2014 squad.
Saunders is the most valuable player, now elsewhere as he accumulated 1.9 WAR in just 78 games at a position where the Mariners have little organizational depth. However, he has been unable to stay healthy at critical points in his career, and Jack Zduriencik's comments regarding his preparation early in the offseason made a trade feel inevitable. Via Lookout Landing's Colin O'Keefe:
"I think what Michael has to do and has to answer to himself is "how do I prepare myself to play as many games through the course of 162 that I can possibly play without being set back with injuries?" Some are freak injuries, some are things that just happen, but some of these things need to be handled from a maintenance standpoint where he puts himself in a position to compete throughout the course of a season.
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Maurer looks like a potential dominant reliever in 2014 after struggling as a starter early in his career. The good news for Seattle is it has the bullpen depth to replace Maurer, as Carson Smith looked just as dominant following a September call-up.
Young did more than the Mariners possibly could have hoped for and won the American League Comeback Player of the Year Award. However, durability concerns arose during a September fade, leaving him to remain unsigned.
Beimel put up strong, if unsustainable, numbers as a lefty bullpen specialist. The Mariners continue to "possibly" have some interest in bringing him back, according to Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune.
Injury Updates Entering Camp
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LF Dustin Ackley
Ackley's second-half revival in 2014 was halted in September due to bone spurs in his left ankle. While he only missed six games due to the injury, it did appear to impact his play in the last half of the month. And he may have sat out if the Mariners had any depth at the position.
While Ackley didn't have to get surgery for the bone spurs, he did see an ankle specialist during the offseason, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com. Ackley was told to stay on the same recovery program, via Dutton. But ankle injuries can linger, and he will be worth monitoring before the season.
SP Roenis Elias
Elias was shut down for the final two weeks of the season after straining a flexor bundle in his left elbow, via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. Such an injury typically takes four to six weeks to recover from.
That gives Elias more than enough time to have healed, and he hasn't suffered any setbacks, as he will enter the battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Still, an elbow injury in a young pitcher is always something to be cautious about.
UTIL Willie Bloomquist
Bloomquist's injury concerns are a little more dire than the aforementioned two players. As a 37-year-old coming off microfracture knee surgery in August, it's unclear if Bloomquist will recover well enough to play in the majors again.
Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reported in late January that Bloomquist has began running and should be ready for spring training. However, Bloomquist wouldn't appear to have a roster spot after the Mariners signed Rickie Weeks to a one-year deal on Monday, via Divish.
It's possible that Bloomquist and Weeks can coexist on the roster, but it doesn’t seem very likely, indicating Bloomquist may have hit a setback in his recovery.
Coaching Staff Analysis
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| Name/Title | Years in Position |
| Manager: Lloyd McClendon | 1 |
| Hitting Coach: Howard Johnson | 1 |
| Pitching Coach: Rick Waits | 1 |
| First Base Coach/Infield Coach: Chris Woodward | 1 |
| Third Base Coach: Rich Donnelly | 1 |
| Bench Coach: Trent Jewett | 1 |
| Bullpen Coach: Miguel Rojas | 1 |
| Quality Control Coach: Chris Prieto | 1 |
| Outfield Coach: Andy Van Slyke | 1 |
The Mariners went for general continuity throughout the organization after bringing in a new coaching staff last season.
McClendon looks like a strong hire for the Mariners, albeit with a sample size of just one year. There's some pressure in Seattle to compete this season, but 2015 isn't a make-or-break year for McClendon's job status.
One of McClendon's most important tasks this season will be getting Austin Jackson back on track after a poor second half in Seattle. Jackson talked about the importance of spending more time with McClendon, who was his hitting coach during four successful years with the Detroit Tigers, via Dutton.
"My first four years being with Lloyd, he was able to iron out some of the problems I had in my swing — he knew the key things we can go back to, to get me locked back in. I didn’t have that last year.It was kind of tough to make adjustments on the fly. ... Last year, I would try to find it, but I think I created some bad habits, and it was kind of tough to get out of them. This offseason, I tried to work on those things as much as I can. Hopefully, when spring training starts, we can get some good work in.
Another coach who deserves a lot of credit is Van Slyke, who helped Ackley transition into a good left fielder. The Mariners may try to make a similar move with Brad Miller at some point in the future.
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Lineup Preview
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Projected Starting Lineup
1. CF Austin Jackson | .256/.308/.342 4 HR 85 wRC+ 1.0 WAR |
2. RF Seth Smith | .266/.367/.440 12 HR 133 wRC+ 2.6 WAR |
3. 2B Robinson Cano | .314/.382/.454 14 HR 136 wRC+ 5.2 WAR |
4. DH Nelson Cruz | .271/.333/.525 40 HR 137 wRC+ 3.9 WAR |
5. 3B Kyle Seager | .268/.334/.454 25 HR 126 wRC+ 5.5 WAR |
6. 1B Logan Morrison | .262/.315/.420 11 HR 110 wRC+ 1.0 WAR |
7. C Mike Zunino | .199/.254/.404 22 HR 86 wRC+ 1.7 WAR |
8. LF Dustin Ackley | 245/.293/.398 14 HR 97 wRC+ 2.1 WAR |
9. SS Brad Miller | .221/.288/.365 10 HR 86 wRC+ 1.4 WAR |
There aren't too many surprises here, as the starter at every position apart from shortstop is locked in barring injury. Miller gets the edge due to his higher ceiling and ability to hit for some power, but the Mariners will be quick to change to Chris Taylor if Miller struggles early on again.
McClendon has indicated that he is leaning toward putting the right field platoon in the all-important No.2 spot rather than Dustin Ackley, according to Dutton. That should give the Mariners a productive hitter ahead of what looks like a very strong middle of the order.
Two of the most important players for Seattle's success are the leadoff man and the sixth batter. Seattle can't afford to have Jackson struggle so much again, while Morrison has shown flashes in the majors and struggled with inconsistency.
Projected Bench
OF Justin Ruggiano | .281/.337/.429 6 HR 113 wRC+ 0.4 WAR |
C Jesus Sucre | .213/.213/.246 0 HR 26 wRC+ 0.0 WAR |
UTIL Rickie Weeks | .274/.357/.452 8 HR 127 wRC+ 1.2 WAR |
OF James Jones | .250/.278/.311 0 HR 68 wRC+ -1.0 WAR |
Weeks makes the bench battle a little more difficult to predict, as he has played primarily as a second baseman in his career. Cano isn't going to get many days off, meaning Weeks will likely back up at third and first base while playing a bit of corner outfield.
Sucre is regarded as a good defensive catcher even if he can't hit at all, which gives him the backup job for now. The name to keep an eye on is John Hicks, who put up impressive numbers in the Arizona Fall League and could be called up later this summer.
The competition for the last bench spot is wide open, and a number of candidates could take it. It seems like the Mariners would use it on a fifth outfielder (assuming Cruz plays very sparingly), and Jones at least offers better baserunning and corner defense over someone like Stefen Romero.
Rotation Preview
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Projected Rotation
RHP Felix Hernandez | 2.14 ERA 2.56 FIP 2.51 xFIP 6.2 WAR |
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma | 3.52 ERA 3.25 FIP 2.85 xFIP 3.2 WAR |
LHP James Paxton | 3.04 ERA 3.28 FIP 3.54 xFIP 1.3 WAR |
LHP J.A. Happ | 4.22 ERA 4.27 FIP 3.95 xFIP 1.3 WAR |
RHP Taijuan Walker | 2.61 ERA 3.68 FIP 3.88 xFIP 0.4 WAR |
There isn't too much to think about here apart from the No. 5 spot. The top three are locked in, while McClendon has indicated that Happ is nearly guaranteed a rotation spot, via Dutton.
That leaves the final spot, which will largely be decided between Walker and Roenis Elias. As good as Elias' rookie season was, Walker still has the higher ceiling despite struggling with his control last season, and he flashed dominant upside his final outing of the year Sept. 24 against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Other Rotation Candidates
LHP Roenis Elias | 3.85 ERA 4.03 FIP 3.95 xFIP 1.4 WAR |
RHP Erasmo Ramirez | 5.26 ERA 5.38 FIP 4.81 xFIP -0.5 WAR |
LHP Danny Hultzen | N/A |
Elias will get his shot eventually, as no team in the majors is going to get through the entire season using only five starters. The Mariners do have some injury concerns in the projected rotation, as Iwakuma, Paxton and Walker all missed significant portions of 2014.
Ramirez will be an interesting player to watch in the spring. He's out of options and could be a trade candidate come late spring when injuries start to pile up around the majors.
Hultzen is attempting to return from major labrum and rotator cuff surgery that has kept him out for over a year and a half. It's very likely Hultzen won't be able to pitch at the same level as before the procedure, but he isn't all that far down the depth chart if he regains some of his prior form.
Bullpen Preview
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Projected Bullpen
RHP Fernando Rodney | 2.85 ERA 2.83 FIP 3.14 xFIP 1.2 WAR |
RHP Tom Wilhelmsen | 2.27 ERA 3.74 FIP 3.69 xFIP 0.2 WAR |
LHP Charlie Furbush | 3.61 ERA 2.80 FIP 2.83 xFIP 0.7 WAR |
RHP Yoervis Medina | 2.68 ERA 3.45 FIP 3.59 xFIP 0.3 WAR |
RHP Dominic Leone | 2.17 ERA 3.07 FIP 3.07 xFIP 0.7 WAR |
RHP Danny Farquhar | 2.66 ERA 2.86 FIP 2.94 xFIP 0.9 WAR |
LHP David Rollins | (Double-A) 3.81 ERA 3.24 FIP |
The majors' best bullpen by ERA from a year ago returns all key members apart from Maurer and Beimel.
Seattle's biggest decision will be who among several candidates replaces Beimel as the second left-hander behind Furbush. Rollins is a Rule 5 draft selection and will have to stay on the 25-man roster if the Mariners want to keep him.
Other Bullpen Options
RHP Carson Smith | 0.00 ERA 1.81 FIP 2.11 xFIP 0.2 WAR |
LHP Edgar Olmos | (Triple-A) 3.86 ERA 4.11 FIP |
LHP Mike Kickham | ( Triple-A) 4.43 ERA 4.03 FIP |
Smith is clearly the best pitcher here and showed last September that he is probably ready for the majors. However, there is no obvious place for Smith on the roster unless the Mariners go with an eight-man bullpen.
If someone gets injured or struggles early, Smith will be up quickly. Kickham is another to watch, as he had the talent to be San Francisco Giants' No. 5 prospect just two years ago, according to Baseball America, but has been unable to have much success at the upper levels.
Prospects to Watch
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1B/OF Patrick Kivlehan (ETA late 2015)
After playing football for most of his college career, Kivlehan was a bit slow to develop in the early stages of his career. He is now putting up impressive numbers in the minors and looks like he will be ready for the majors sometime this year.
Kivlehan hit .300/.374/.485 in Double-A in 2014 after graduating from High-A 34 games into the season. He followed that up with a 138 wRC+ performance in the AFL and appears ready to begin the season in Triple-A.
While primarily a third baseman during his development, Kivlehan has been playing at first and has the athleticism to be a corner outfielder. Kivlehan could be up even before September, as the Mariners need a reliable backup to the inconsistent and injury-prone Morrison.
1B D.J. Peterson (ETA late 2015)
While Peterson now ranks behind Alex Jackson as Seattle's top prospect, according to Baseball America, he still carries a lot of the club's hope for the future. There has been nothing in Peterson's development so far that would indicate he isn't going to live up to the hype.
Peterson has followed a similar pattern at each level of the minors: After about a month of adjusting, he starts to mash. He hit .261/.335/.473 with 13 home runs in 58 games of Double-A last season and will probably move to Triple-A soon this year, if not right away.
Like Kivlehan, Peterson is transitioning from first to third and could be that Morrison backup. Kivlehan looks a little more polished of the two for now, but a September call-up or breaking camp with the team in 2016 is not unreasonable for Peterson.
OF Austin Wilson (ETA late 2016)
Wilson is shooting up prospect rankings after an impressive 2014 season at Low-A Clinton. An Achilles injury kept Wilson out for over a month, but he still managed a .291/.376/.517 line with 12 home runs and 17 doubles (good for a .226 ISO) in 72 games.
At 6'5", 245 pounds with tremendous athleticism, Wilson has huge potential to be a powerful corner outfielder down the line. While Wilson has a long way to go to the majors, he could rise fast through the minors this season due to his high ceiling.
Breakout Candidates
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C Mike Zunino
Considering Zunino was drafted in 2012, a 1.7 WAR season in the majors last season is already impressive. Still, he could be on the brink of stardom with the next step of development.
The tools are already there for Zunino to be a valuable player. He is an excellent defensive catcher, one of the better pitch framers in the majors (a skill that's being viewed as more and more important) and hit 22 home runs out of the catcher position last season.
Of course, Zunino also had an OBP of .254 (which included 17 HBP) and a strikeout rate of 33.2 percent. Zunino has struggled to make contact in the majors, particularly against curveballs.
That isn't surprising given how little time Zunino has had to adjust to each level, and more experience is only going to help him. This could be the season where he begins to move from a decent player to a star.
SP James Paxton
When Paxton has been on the mound early on in his career, he has been impressive. Through 17 career starts, Paxton owns a 2.66 ERA (3.27 FIP), strikeout rate of 20.2 percent and has only given up five home runs.
The concern is Paxton's health, as he missed nearly four months with a lat strain and shoulder inflammation after looking excellent in his first two starts of the year. He returned for the final two months and didn't lose any velocity, but any shoulder injury in a young pitcher is a red flag.
Paxton's stuff is dominant, including an electric fastball that touches the upper 90s. With an improvement of command and a full season of health, Paxton could put up some gaudy numbers.
Position Battle Predictions
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Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Chris Taylor
The Mariners have indicated that there is “no favorite” in the most intriguing battle of the spring, via Dutton. With Weeks (and possibly Bloomquist) around, it looks increasingly likely that the winner will start and the loser will head to Triple-A.
Miller has more upside with the bat, as he has flashed some home run and doubles power. Inconsistency was Miller's problem in 2014: He posted a wRC+ of 143 or better in three separate months and one of 51 or worse in the other three.
There's a place for Taylor on a major league roster due to his plus defense and speed. Taylor also wasn't bad with the bat as a singles hitter in his debut, posting a .287/.347/.346 line in 47 games.
Miller gets the nod due to his higher ceiling, but whoever wins isn't going to have a very long leash.
No. 5 Rotation: Taijuan Walker vs. Roenis Elias
Going just off of last year's numbers, Elias might have the advantage here. Elias impressively jumped from Double-A to put up a 3.85 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 29 starts, while Walker struggled to throw strikes.
However, Walker was consistently rated as Seattle's top prospect during his time in the minors and clearly has the higher upside. It will be hard for the Mariners to ignore the kind of potential Walker showed in his final start of the season.
Elias doesn’t have any competition as Seattle's No. 6 starter, so expect him in the majors again at some point.
Final Bench Spot
The Mariners have a lot of unappealing options for the final position on their bench. Assuming Weeks makes the roster, anyone of Jones, Bloomquist, Romero, O'Malley, the shortstop loser or Jesus Montero could take it.
It could very well be a position that rotates consistently based on the club's needs at any given time. The Mariners may try a platoon at shortstop if the starter starts to struggle—Montero would make some sense as a platoon partner for Morrison if the latter is inconsistent again—or Seattle could even scrap it and go with an eight-man bullpen at times.
O'Malley has the best chance of the non-roster invitees to break camp with the club, as he has the versatility to play a number of positions and posted an .886 OPS at Triple-A Salt Lake a year ago.
Again, it seems like this spot will initially go to an outfielder, as the Mariners will want to play Cruz and Weeks in the field as little as possible. Jones has the advantage over Romero, but expect this to change hands often.
Final Bullpen Spot
The Mariners have stockpiled arms to compete for the final position in the bullpen. As of now, it looks like there are four candidates.
Seattle could make the risky decision of having only one left-hander and going with the best available overall pitcher, who is Smith. It seems more likely that the Mariners will want that second lefty, leaving the spot up for grabs between Rollins, Olmos and Kickham.
Rollins had slightly better numbers than the other two last season and has to stay on the active roster if the Mariners want to keep him, giving him the initial advantage. It's difficult to project how any of these players will perform in the majors, so this could be another spot that rotates constantly throughout the season.
If Beimel is re-signed, he becomes the heavy favorite to win the position.
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