5 Most Important Changes for Spurs to Make After 2015 NBA All-Star Break
With All-Star Weekend days away, the San Antonio Spurs find themselves in an unfamiliar spot.
At 33-19, they rank just seventh in the Western Conference. Though recognized as contenders, few would characterize the Spurs as favorites to win the title—and rightfully so.
With injuries and mediocre offense headlining the relatively slow start to 2014-15, the season's first half has hardly been ideal.
However, once the midyear break passes, the Spurs will have the opportunity to make it an afterthought.
Aside from the playoffs, it's the second half of the regular season that holds the most weight in regards to a team's long-term success. With the home stretch quickly approaching, San Antonio needs to guarantee that it is in prime position to repeat—something that it is hardly in right now.
Finalize Roster, 15th Roster Spot
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After Austin Daye was waived, it appeared as though San Antonio was gearing up for a potential midseason transaction to fill one of its roster holes.
Though no major signings or trades have been rumored, the Spurs have yet to permanently fill the 15th roster spot. It was held for a short while by NBA D-League standout JaMychal Green and is now occupied by swingman Reggie Williams, who signed his second 10-day contract on Sunday.
While it's possible that the team will simply offer Williams a full-year deal, it's also extremely possible that it'll look to add a bigger difference-maker prior to the trade deadline.
Though the Spurs often stay separated from the rumor mill, the injury bug that plagued them throughout the start of the season exposed plenty of holes that need dire filling.
Primarily, the team needs another defensive stopper at the wing position to bolster its perimeter coverage should either Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard suffer a major injury.
The Spurs struggled without Leonard when he missed an extended stretch in December, as their defense fell apart at the seams.
With the February 19 deadline quickly approaching, San Antonio needs to give final consideration to that last roster spot. Whether it hangs on to Williams, leave it unfilled after Williams' deal expires or make a last-minute addition before the deadline, there's a literal hole in the roster that needs filling.
Increase Pace
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Currently, not much regarding San Antonio's current team differs greatly from its 2015 championship one.
The most noteworthy difference between the two teams is the increased reliance on Kawhi Leonard, and given his improvements in every facet of the game, that's a good thing.
So what, then, has kept this year's team from reaching the top-tier status of last year? A quick look at John Hollinger's pace statistics, via ESPN, offers one suggestion: The Spurs simply aren't averaging enough offensive possessions.
Approaching All-Star Weekend, the team sits in the bottom third in pace—an "honor" shared by only one other Western Conference team primed for a playoff run, the Memphis Grizzlies.
However, whereas Memphis is known for its grit-and-grind defense, San Antonio has developed a reputation for its smooth offense. Yet, the offense hasn't been nearly what it was from a statistical standpoint—a combination of decreased opportunities and production.
"The problem, friends, has been on the other end of the floor. The Spurs rank 12th in scoring, at 100.7 points per game, and have scored over 100 just three times in their past 13 games. They're 13th in Offensive Rating, at 103.7, per NBA.com, and a slug-like 22nd in pace, at 95.5 possessions per 48 minutes. They're behind the ironically-named Pacers in pace, for crying out loud. They're playing slower than a team with Roy Hibbert on it. Last year they ranked sixth in offensive rating at 108.2 and 12th in pace, at 97.1.
The Spurs are still passing it as much as they ever have. They're assisting and hockey-assisting on their buckets at a great clip, but they're just not getting as many shots to fall as they're accustomed to. They've slipped from second in the league last year with a 48.6 shooting percentage to tenth this season at 45.7; from first in the league in three-point marksmanship at 39.7 to sixth this year at 37.0. They're even scoring two fewer points in the paint and five points less from the bench.
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This year, we've only seen glimpses of the offense that helped win San Antonio its fifth franchise title. After the All-Star break, the Spurs should look to push the ball a greater amount to guarantee that the opportunities are there, especially if production and efficiency remain less than ideal.
Toy with Point Guard Rotation
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Both Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard suffered major injuries toward the end of 2014.
While Leonard's hurt the Spurs more during the stretch in which he was absent, it appears as though Parker's will have the more negative long-term consequences.
Unlike Leonard, the veteran point guard hasn't fully recovered from his, and with the playoffs only months away, the thought of a less-than-perfect Parker spearheading the Spurs offense isn't all that comforting.
As I noted toward the end of January, the 2014-15 incarnation of Tony Parker is a far cry from the superstar floor general fans had grown accustomed to seeing:
"The veteran point guard's per-36-minute point total is his lowest since the 2004-05 season while his assist average is below five for the first time since his rookie campaign. To find a lower player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes, you'd also have to look back to his first year.
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Now over a month removed from his injury, Parker is beginning to show signs of recovery. His scoring total is slowly rising, and he looks to be more explosive when driving to the hole.
While it's important that he gets the opportunity to continue finding his groove, it's equally important to ensure that he isn't overworked to the point where his hamstring becomes an issue.
Finding the right balance is an immediate must-do for San Antonio, who will thus have the opportunity to hand more minutes over to Patty Mills and Cory Joseph.
With the opportunity to preserve Parker's health while also finding a definitive rotation at the 1, the Spurs should definitely give major thought to the point guard position to ensure that all runs smoothly on the big stage.
Rest Tim Duncan
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While it's important that the Spurs make a final push for a better seed and, by extension, a better first-round matchup, it's even more crucial that they enter the postseason at full health.
Though the entire starting group should see its health preserved as the season ticks down, nothing is more important than guaranteeing that Tim Duncan enters the playoffs at 100 percent.
Turning 39 in April, Duncan is on his last legs, even if his production suggests otherwise. As he'll be forced to play increased minutes against tougher teams when the playoffs arrive, the effort needs to be made now to ensure that his body doesn't break down as a 39-year-old's normally would.
Perhaps more so than any other player, Tim Duncan has been the backbone of the Spurs' success thus far. Unlike Parker and Leonard, Duncan has gone the season without suffering a major injury. In their absences, he kept the team afloat, anchoring its defense and stepping up on offense.
He has been one of the league's most reliable rebounders and was recently named as an All-Star reserve.
That said, none of it matters if Duncan isn't ready to compete at the highest level in the playoffs.
Though it might still be competitive, San Antonio is only a legitimate contender with Duncan at full strength. Should he fall apart, the Spurs simply won't have the defensive firepower or the interior support necessary to carry them deep into the playoffs.
While it's likely that the team will sit the veteran big man in the regular season's final games, it'll need to begin monitoring his minutes heavily out of the All-Star break. Duncan is averaging over 30 minutes this season—a mark that no Spur averaged last year. While he may seem to be superhuman, he has also fallen victim to several injuries in the past few years.
Should one occur when everything is on the line, both Duncan and San Antonio can kiss their sixth championship hopes goodbye.
Find Motivation
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In a column written by Manu Ginobili for the Argentine newspaper La Nacion and translated by Jesus Gomez of Pounding the Rock, the veteran guard admitted what many Spurs fans feared:
The team had lost its championship drive, at least relative to last season.
"As a general assessment, we are winning more often but we are still not satisfied with our performance yet and know we have to keep improving. The reality is we need to go back to feeling like we need to play well for the full 48 minutes instead of just 20 or 30 depending on the rival. We play well for a while and then relax. At times it seems like we want things to come easy to us instead of busting our backs like we've always have.
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It's understandable if the team's motivation isn't what it was last year. After 2013's Finals collapse, the 2013-14 Spurs were out for blood and were ready to compete relentlessly until they accomplished what they had nearly done the previous year.
This year, they're not looking to avenge heartbreak. They are looking to repeat success, and while getting a taste of it last year may have been sweet for a squad that hadn't won it all since 2007, it may have also—as Ginobili wrote—"closed that open wound."
With the postseason on the horizon, the Spurs' post-All-Star effort, more than anything, needs fixing. The roster doesn't lack talent, and the coaching is there for the team to succeed.
What the Spurs seemingly lack—and what would push them back into the league's upper echelon of contenders—is the unrivaled drive that characterized their 2013 title run.
Should they find it, you can bet that San Antonio will once again be a force to be reckoned with.
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