Denver Broncos: Making the Case for Letting Demaryius Thomas Walk This Offseason

No one would argue if you were to call Demaryius Thomas an elite receiver.

As an elite receiver, Thomas is set to cash in in a huge way. And he deserves the money he's about to get; he's an incredible talent who has consistently put up big numbers.

The Broncos are likely to bring Thomas back, whether it comes from a franchise tag or an extension. Either way, Thomas can be expected to make around $13-14 million annually, which would take up a hefty portion of the Broncos salary cap.

As I said, he deserves that money. But should the Broncos be the ones to pay that money?

Thomas' production has been elite, but his numbers have been inflated by a pass-first offense. The Broncos ran a lot of three-receiver sets in 2013 and 2014, which opened up the field for Thomas and allowed him to catch 116 passes for 1,619 yards in 2014.

However, he dropped a lot of passes, and when throwing to Thomas in 2014, Manning was fairly average.

According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas was below average in drop rate, finishing 28th out of 45 qualified receivers with a drop rate of 8.66 percent. He dropped a lot of routine screens and was very streaky.

In the Broncos' postseason game against the Colts, he caught five passes for 59 yards and dropped two passes on 11 targets. He didn't show up when the Broncos needed him most; his streaky play got the best of him.

Sure, Thomas' stats were great at some points during the season. He had seven straight 100-yard receiving games, which is downright unbelievable. 

However, overall, Manning wasn't great when targeting Thomas. Manning's passer rating when targeting Thomas was 98.2 (including the postseason), 20th among 45 qualified receivers and worse than Manning's overall passer rating of 99.7.

It's not fair at all to say that Manning made Thomas, who had his moments even when Tim Tebow was at quarterback. But the numbers show that Thomas has benefited greatly from being around Manning.

So, as expected, when Manning started to struggle, he took Thomas down with him. After Manning's thigh injury (in Denver's last three games), Thomas was targeted a whopping 41 times. He caught just 20 passes, and Manning's passer rating when targeting Thomas was an awful 49.7.

Perhaps not so coincidentally, Thomas' grade during those three games was minus-1.5. 

Thomas did very well during the rest of the season, but it's alarming that his production went down when Manning's did. It supports the argument that if the Broncos were to let Thomas go, they could benefit in many other areas and maintain solid production from their receivers. 

For starters, the Broncos have Emmanuel Sanders, who would become the top receiver. Sanders was tremendous in 2014. He finished eighth in PFF's wide receiver rating and third in drop rate, and he could be trusted to take Thomas' spot.

As for the second receiver, the Broncos have Cody Latimer. Latimer was drafted 56th in the 2014 NFL draft, and he has enormous potential. He struggled in 2014, but he had few opportunities.

Latimer was known as a sure-handed receiver coming out of college. He caught five passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in the preseason, and he did this on just 10 targets. 

According to the Indy Star, the Indiana receiving coach said that he'd seen Latimer drop a pass "two or three times" in practices and games. Latimer is sure handed, and even in his down year, he finished 80th out of 216 receivers in 2014 on PFF.

Ed Andrieski/Associated Press/Associated Press

Look for Latimer to burst onto the scene once he gets the chance. Sanders and Latimer would make a tremendous duo, one that wouldn't be much worse than the duo of Thomas and Sanders.

If Latimer doesn't pan out, though, the Broncos could target a receiver in the middle rounds of the draft or sign a cheaper free agent, like Kenny Britt or Eddie Royal. That wouldn't cost too much, and it would give the Broncos a chance to spread the money out to upgrade in many areas.

According to overthecap.com, Denver has about $26 million to work with. That ranks ninth in the league, but the Broncos have a lot of needs that they need to fill. 

They only have three starting offensive linemen under contract, and one of them, Manny Ramirez, was awful in 2013 and is unlikely to start again.

If the Broncos sign just one quality offensive lineman, it would probably cost at least $7 million in 2015. If they want to bring back star defensive tackle Terrance Knighton or a replacement, it would also cost around $5-7 million.

That would leave the Broncos with $12-14 million left, which is about how much Thomas alone would command.

Yet the Broncos would still need to re-sign standout linebacker Brandon Marshall. They would still need to sign blocking tight end Virgil Green and possibly another free-agent tight end. Their offensive line still wouldn't be in great shape.

In other words, that wouldn't be enough money for the Broncos to work with.

With $26 million and Thomas out of the picture, the Broncos could fulfill their needs on the offensive and defensive line, sign a tight end and even sign a cheaper receiver like Britt or Royal to compete with Latimer for when the Broncos do run three-receiver sets.

With the money the Broncos have now, it's worth considering whether Demaryius Thomas is a reasonable investment. If Peyton Manning takes a pay cut or if the Broncos free up a significant amount of money another way, they should certainly bring Thomas back. 

But right now, the Broncos aren't in a position to add a lot of free agents. They're still unlikely to let Thomas go, but it might be the right thing to do.