Every NFL Team's Toughest Contract Decision
The 2014 season is over, but the NFL's business season is set to begin in earnest, with free agency kicking off at the start of the new league year (March 10).
As that date inexorably draws closer, each franchise will have difficult financial choices to make in order to put their team in the best position to win. Longtime fan favorites could be on the chopping block and high-priced veterans could be told to hit the road. Conversely, teams will have to decide whether to retain their own free agents or let them test free agency and risk losing them.
In this column, we'll examine the toughest contract decision that every team has to make this offseason—with potential financial and public-relations ramifications factored in.
(All salary cap information courtesy of Spotrac.com)
Arizona Cardinals: WR Larry Fitzgerald
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Larry Fitzgerald has been the Arizona Cardinals' star receiver since being selected in the first round of the 2004 draft—but his time in the desert may be drawing to a conclusion.
With the Cardinals currently $12 million over the cap—and Fitzgerald possessing a salary-cap number of $23.6 million in 2015—it's hard to imagine team and player working out a financial arrangement that both sides consider amenable.
Fitzgerald could very well see the writing on the wall, telling Paul Burmeister of the NBC Sports Network (via Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com) that he "enjoyed" his time in the Cardinals. Fitzgerald is a smart guy, so his usage of the past tense—"had"—should go noted.
It's tough to imagine Fitzgerald in another uniform, but that appears to be the most likely scenario.
Prediction: LEAVES
Atlanta Falcons: WR Julio Jones
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Quick: Outside of quarterback Matt Ryan, who is the best player on the Atlanta Falcons roster?
Chances are, you responded with receiver Julio Jones. And it'd be tough to blame you, considering Jones is coming off a season in which he hauled in 104 passes for 1,593 yards and six touchdown receptions.
With Jones' excellent play in mind—along with the fact that his contract will expire after the 2015 season—it stands to reason that the Falcons should consider extending him this offseason, right?
Well, not necessarily. As Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal Constitution writes, the Falcons might be better off without the 26-year-old receiver—and not because Jones isn't a talented player, but because Atlanta needs so much other help on the roster that lavishing a receiver with cash might not be the best option.
Atlanta's wisest course of action might be to see how Jones' 2015 season plays out and deal with the situation next year, with the franchise tag looming as an option. But then again, new coach Dan Quinn and the front office do have $20 million in cap space to play with, so an extension is certainly possible.
We'll guess that the Falcons extend Jones this offseason, but don't be shocked if Quinn and Co. choose to handle his contract matter next year.
Prediction: KEEP (EXTENDED CONTRACT)
Baltimore Ravens: WR Torrey Smith
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Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith overcame a slow start (zero touchdown receptions through the first three games of the season) to finish strong, ending the year with 12 touchdown catches (including one in the postseason).
Given that—and Smith's excellent play in Baltimore's Super Bowl run in 2012—it's fair to assume that Ravens fans want Smith back for the long haul.
But Baltimore's precarious salary-cap situation will make it difficult for the team to retain the 26-year-old Smith. The Ravens have only $413,000 in cap space, and there's simply no way that general manager Ozzie Newsome will be able to re-sign Smith without a number of corresponding moves.
While it's possible that Smith could be brought back, the smart money (no pun intended) is on him signing elsewhere.
Prediction: LEAVES
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Buffalo Bills: RB C.J. Spiller
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Once upon a time, in a galaxy far, far away (OK, it was only a few years ago), Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller was among the most dynamic players in the NFL.
But while two straight substandard seasons in Western New York might have lessened his value, Spiller voided his 2015 contract, meaning he'll become a free agent on March 10. And it's currently unclear if the Bills will opt to keep him in town.
The Bills do have over $27 million in cap space, and new coach Rex Ryan likes to employ a "ground and pound" philosophy on offense, but Spiller is sure to receive much interest elsewhere, as noted by Bleacher Report's Chris Hansen.
Buffalo has a number of other backs on the roster—including Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown—and that makes it more likely that Spiller will walk.
Prediction: LEAVES
Carolina Panthers: DE Greg Hardy
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The Carolina Panthers face an interesting decision with impending free-agent defensive end Greg Hardy.
If not for his off-field issues, Hardy would likely be the recipient of a big-money contract from the Panthers. But Hardy's domestic violence charges kept him off the field for all but one game in 2014, making the situation a nebulous one.
Hardy compiled 26 sacks from 2012-13, and at age 26 he clearly has a lot left in the tank. And while his charges were recently dismissed, Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reported that the Panthers are likely to let Hardy walk.
Carolina currently has over $9 million in cap space, and possesses the ability to create more flexibility with potential moves. But bringing back Hardy doesn't appear likely—and whether the decision comes up aces or backfires, it's sure to be a hotly discussed one in the Carolinas.
Prediction: LEAVES
Chicago Bears: QB Jay Cutler
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In 2014, the Chicago Bears were a disaster wrapped in a disaster, with disaster sprinkled on top for good measure. And then the disaster was thrown into a dumpster and set ablaze, creating an inferno so towering that ownership had no choice but to fire general manager Phil Emery and coach Marc Trestman.
The other primary offender of the pathetic campaign was quarterback Jay Cutler—but thanks to the ridiculous seven-year, $126 million contract he signed prior to last year, Cutler remains on the roster.
Cutler was truly abysmal, tossing 18 interceptions and compiling a 5-10 record as the starter. But it was his lackadaisical approach that infuriated fans, coaches and teammates alike, and ultimately led to his benching down the stretch of the season for Jimmy Clausen, which would be like if Tom Cruise were demoted on a movie set in favor of Tom Green.
New Bears general manager Ryan Pace and coach John Fox's first major decision in charge is what to do with Cutler. The Bears owe Cutler $15.5 million for 2015 no matter what, and if Cutler is still on the roster on March 12, he will be guaranteed another $10 million for 2016. So a decision will be made in short order.
It's difficult to imagine the Bears finding a taker for Cutler's massive contract and the prospect of releasing him outright is too out there to fathom. The most likely scenario is him remaining in Chicago—at least for one more season.
Prediction: STAYS
Cincinnati Bengals: LB Rey Maualuga
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The Cincinnati Bengals have a number of free agents set to hit the market on March 10, but the most notable is linebacker Rey Maualuga.
Maualuga, 28, missed four games in 2014 with a hamstring injury, but still finished with his best career ranking from Pro Football Focus. He's been part of four consecutive playoff teams in Cincinnati and possesses a ton of experience.
And with Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com reporting that the Bengals are interested in re-signing Maualuga—along with Cincinnati possessing over $30 million in cap space—it stands to reason that they'll re-sign him.
Prediction: KEEPS
Cleveland Browns: QB Brian Hoyer
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Soon-to-be free-agent quarterback Brian Hoyer was the Cleveland Browns' primary starting quarterback in 2014, and while he was benched near the season's end, he did accumulate a 7-6 record at the helm.
And while that benching would seem to indicate that Hoyer will be playing elsewhere in 2015, there are extenuating circumstances currently clouding Cleveland's quarterback situation—namely the foibles of last year's first-round pick, Johnny Manziel.
The Browns surely drafted Manziel with the hopes that he'd be "the guy" in 2015 and beyond, but with Manziel recently entering rehab to get his life in order, things are up in the air. Further complicating matters is the team's reported interest in Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota—and with Cleveland holding two first-round picks in April's draft, they have the theoretical firepower to trade up for Mariota if they so desire.
Is it possible that the Browns—who possess $43 million in cap space—bring back Hoyer as a "safe" option to compete for the starting job? Yes. But that seems to be too illogical an option for even the Browns to consider.
Prediction: LEAVES
Dallas Cowboys: WR Dez Bryant
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While the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 12-4 season that surely has fans feeling positive about the future, their impending salary-cap situation surely means that one of their star players will be playing elsewhere in 2015.
Both star running back DeMarco Murray and star receiver Dez Bryant will be free agents, and given that Dallas has only $5.1 million in cap space to play with, it's extremely unlikely that both will be retained. And while Bleacher Report's Clarence Hill believes the Cowboys must find a way to keep Murray, Bryant should be the higher priority.
Finding a stud back is easier than acquiring a game-changing receiver, so it stands to reason that Bryant is the more important player. And with Drew Davison of the Star-Telegram reporting that the Cowboys are "likely" to restructure quarterback Tony Romo's contract in an effort to clear cap space, Dallas should have the space needed to bring back Bryant.
Whether it's via the franchise tag or a long-term deal, it's almost impossible to imagine owner Jerry Jones letting Bryant walk.
Prediction: KEEPS
Denver Broncos: WR Demaryius Thomas
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Since being selected in the first round of the 2010 draft, Denver Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas has authored a marvelous career—including hauling in 111 receptions for 1,619 yards and 11 touchdown catches last year.
So it should surprise no one to read that Thomas will be among the most coveted free agents when the period opens on March 10. But with the Broncos possessing over $23 million in cap space—and having the franchise tag at their disposal as well—the safe assumption is that they'll do everything in their power to keep Thomas in town.
It's currently unclear if star quarterback Peyton Manning will return in 2015, and the Broncos have a new coach in Gary Kubiak, so there is unrest swirling around the franchise. And with current Jets receiver Eric Decker reportedly recruiting Thomas to join him on Broadway, it's certainly possible that Thomas will listen to offers from other teams.
But it's too tough to imagine Broncos general manager John Elway allowing Thomas to walk out the door. If a long-term deal can't be reached, expect the Broncos to slap Thomas with the franchise tag.
Prediction: KEEPS
Detroit Lions: DT Ndamukong Suh
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Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is set to hit the free-agent market—and there's little doubt that he'll break the bank, regardless of whether he remains in Motown.
Suh, who accumulated 8.5 sacks last year, finished the season ranked as Pro Football Focus' third-best defensive tackle. He's an absolute monster and will be hotly coveted.
The question is whether the Lions will be able to keep him. As Drew Birkett of the Detroit Free Press recently reported, Suh is seeking a deal that will make him the highest-paid defensive player in the league. And with the Lions possessing only $12 million in cap space, it doesn't seem likely that the team will be able to retain Suh's services.
But coach Jim Caldwell and general manager Martin Mayhew surely want to keep Suh in town, and they could make a series of corresponding moves in order to achieve their goal. But right now, it's more likely Suh is lavished with greenbacks elsewhere.
Prediction: LEAVES
Green Bay Packers: WR Randall Cobb
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Green Bay Packers receiver Randall Cobb dominated in 2014, hauling in 91 catches for 1,287 yards and 12 receiving scores. And given his age—Cobb is only 24—it's easy to see that he's going to be made a very rich man when the free-agent period opens.
Cobb is a vital cog in Green Bay's prolific passing attack, so it makes sense that Packers general manager Ted Thompson will do everything in his power to retain Cobb. And indeed, Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported back in December that re-signing Cobb will be Green Bay's No. 1 offseason priority.
Thankfully for Packers fans (and Thompson), Green Bay enters the offseason in excellent salary-cap shape, with more than $21 million in space. If Thompson can manage to keep both Cobb and tackle Bryan Bulaga, it will be a masterstroke.
But if Green Bay can keep only one, expect it to be Cobb—he's too important to quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the Packers to allow him to walk.
Prediction: KEEP
Houston Texans: CB Kareem Jackson
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Houston Texans cornerback Kareem Jackson picked a good time to play his best season, as he's set to hit the free-agent market.
Jackson, 26, finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' 11th-best cornerback, intercepting three passes in the process. And he hopes to remain a Texan, telling Daniel Gotera of KHOU.com, "I would definitely love to continue to be a Houston Texan. Great fanbase here, I enjoy playing in NRG Stadium."
But Jackson might not get his wish, as the Texans have only $7.5 million in available cap space. But a restructuring of receiver Andre Johnson's contract appears likely, so the educated guess is that Jackson will remain in Houston.
Prediction: KEEP
Indianapolis Colts: WR Reggie Wayne
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Receiver Reggie Wayne is one of the all-time greats in the history of the Indianapolis Colts—and when a player of that stature nears the end of his career, it's always difficult for tough decisions to be made.
Wayne, 36, caught only 64 passes in 2014—and hauled in only one catch in three postseason games. The Colts have $30 million in cap space, so they obviously have the money to bring Wayne back, but the question is if it's worth it for another year.
After the Colts season ended in an AFC Championship loss in New England, owner Jim Irsay told Zak Keefer of The Indianapolis Star, "(Reggie) had an unbelievable career. For the future, we haven't decided yet." Irsay's usage of the past tense—"had" instead of "has had"—indicates that the team is getting set to move into 2015 without their stalwart pass-catcher.
Wayne could also opt for retirement, meaning it's impossible to say with any real confidence that he'll be back in Indianapolis for a 15th season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: RB Toby Gerhart
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The Jacksonville Jaguars might be coming off a 3-13 season, but the vibes should currently be positive. Why? Because the team has a whopping $57 million in cap space to play with.
When considering that ridiculous number, it's hard to call any contract decision a "tough" one, especially considering the dearth of elite players on the roster. But if we had to choose one, it would be that of running back Toby Gerhart.
Gerhart, who was signed to a three-year, $10.5 million contract last offseason, was an epic flop in 2015 (fantasy football players nationwide are currently nodding their heads in vigorous fashion), averaging only 3.2 yards per carry and rushing for only 326 yards. In a season in which general manager David Caldwell and coach Gus Bradley expected Gerhart to be the bell cow at running back, they watched as players like Storm Johnson and Denard Robinson carried the load instead.
Cutting ties with Gerhart would be less of a problem from a financial perspective and more of an issue from a public relations angle, as it would be an outright admission that the current administration failed in spectacular fashion by bestowing Gerhart with that deal.
At this point, though, it's unlikely that Caldwell and Bradley—who need to win in 2015 to save their jobs—care about the potential public relations hit. The bottom line is that Gerhart grossly underperformed, and should be on the way out.
Prediction: LEAVES
Kansas City Chiefs: LB Justin Houston
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In the National Football League, two types of playmakers receive the most exorbitant contracts: elite quarterbacks and game-changing pass-rushers.
Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston is certainly in the latter category, as he led the NFL with an outrageous 22 sacks in 2014. He finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' top-rated 3-4 outside linebacker by a wide margin.
In December, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com reported that the Chiefs would likely hit Houston with the franchise tag and that Houston would likely sign it and take the one-year windfall that comes with it, but it remains to be seen if that will materialize.
Adam Teicher of ESPN.com recently wrote that the chances of the Chiefs letting Houston walk are "slim," and it's tough to disagree with that notion. But with Kansas City currently $5 million over the cap, expect a number of corresponding moves in order to create enough financial flexibility to bring Houston back—either on a long-term deal or (more likely) via the franchise tag.
Prediction: STAYS
Miami Dolphins: QB Ryan Tannehill
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Given that quarterback is the most important position in all of sports (not just the NFL), the fact that the Miami Dolphins are considering extending passer Ryan Tannehill vaults this decision to the top of their list.
Right now, the Dolphins are $1.5 million over the cap, meaning that a bloodletting is surely on the way—especially considering a potential Tannehill extension. Players like receiver Mike Wallace and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler could end up being casualties as the team attempts to navigate into more manageable financial waters.
Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel reported that the Dolphins are working on an incentives-based deal for Tannehill that would land at seven years and approximately $105 million. Given Tannehill's age (26) and the fact that he's improved in all three of his NFL seasons, an extension makes sense. Last season, Tannehill threw 27 touchdown passes against only 12 interceptions and nearly helped the Dolphins to the postseason.
Locking up a franchise quarterback is never a bad move, and the Dolphins would be wise to do so.
Prediction: KEEP (EXTENDED CONTRACT)
Minnesota Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson
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Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's 2014 season was cut short following an indictment for allegedly injuring his four-year-old son with a switch. Peterson played in only one game and rushed for only 75 yards.
Now, Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and coach Mike Zimmer must decide what to do with their outstanding ball-carrier. As Ben Goessling of ESPN.com writes, Peterson's status is currently nebulous, but the prevailing thought is that he'll be reinstated by April 15. As of right now, that's the first date in which Peterson could be reinstated, although the NFLPA is fighting to have Peterson's suspension overturned so that he can be reinstated by the start of the new league year (March 10).
Peterson is due to count for $15.4 million against the 2015 cap, and that's a hefty price for Spielman and Zimmer to pay for a potential public-relations nightmare. Regardless of how you felt about Peterson's indictment, there can be no questioning the dark cloud it left around the Vikings' season. It's possible—and perhaps likely—that the Minnesota brain trust will decide to move on from Peterson entirely.
If and when that's the case—which we believe it will be—it will send shock waves reverberating throughout the NFL offseason.
Prediction: LEAVES
New England Patriots: CB Darrelle Revis
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Last offseason, the New England Patriots inked star cornerback Darrelle Revis to a one-year, $12 million contract with a team option for 2015.
The move, of course, came up aces, as Revis was tremendous en route to the Patriots defeating the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX and capturing the franchise's fourth Lombardi Trophy.
The question now is if the Patriots will be able to retain the services of Revis, who has developed a reputation as perhaps the NFL's finest mercenary, always ready to play for the highest bidder. If the Patriots were to exercise their team option for 2015, Revis' cap hit would be a staggering $25 million, so it's unlikely that will happen, which means Revis will probably hit free agency.
Speaking recently on WEEI Radio in Boston (h/t Mike Reiss of ESPN.com), Patriots president Jonathan Kraft said this of Revis:
"(Darrelle has) been everything and more since he's been here. Patriots fans knew what he was like on the field, but didn't know what he was like off it. Having worn green all those years and the blind emotion we all have toward the Jets, you have one perception of the man. And the man is very different than that. He's a great guy and he works hard. There is no over-ego to him and he's a great teammate. He's been a real pleasure to have him as part of the organization.
"
While Revis has normally gravitated toward the money, perhaps winning a title has whet his appetite for more on-field success. If that's even remotely the case, re-signing with the Patriots would be his wisest course of action.
Prediction: KEEP
New Orleans Saints: WR Marques Colston
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Since he was selected in the seventh round of the 2006 draft, receiver Marques Colston has exceeded all expectations to become one of the best players in the history of the New Orleans Saints.
But there can be no denying that the 31-year-old Colston's play dropped off in 2014, as he finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' 100th-best receiver. And no, that's not good.
Given that the Saints are $26 million over the cap heading into the offseason, general manager Mickey Loomis and coach Sean Payton will need to be creative to get the team into a more favorable economic situation. And releasing Colston, who is set to earn $7 million next year, seems to be a logical move.
Katherine Terrell of The Times-Picayune echoed those sentiments, recently trumpeting Colston as someone who could be on the chopping block. And while Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reported that Colston could be willing to take a small pay cut to remain in the Bayou, it would probably make more sense for the Saints to cut ties completely—especially considering the emergence of young wideouts Kenny Stills and Nick Toon.
Prediction: LEAVES
New York Giants: DE Jason Pierre-Paul
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New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul hit free agency on a high note, garnering 12.5 sacks on the campaign—the most since he tallied 16.5 in 2011. He ended the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' seventh-best 4-3 defensive end.
Pierre-Paul was simply dominant down the stretch, piling up nine sacks in the season's final five games. He once again flashed the form that had many thinking he was on his way to perennial All-Pro status, and that should help earn him a massive payday this offseason.
Pierre-Paul is aware of his future financial windfall, telling Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com:
"""I think I am worth a lot of money. What do you think? I don't know what my future holds. Who knows if I am going to be in a Giant uniform, who knows where I am going to be in the offseason. Like I said, now, the numbers are there, I had a great season, and everybody sees it. There really is nothing else to say, just negotiations and it is coming.
"
To his credit, Giants owner John Mara expressed a significant desire to keep Pierre-Paul, telling Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News, "I would be very surprised if (Pierre-Paul) was not a Giant next year." The franchise tag looms as a potential option, which means it's more likely Pierre-Paul is back in Giant blue in 2015.
Prediction: KEEPS
New York Jets: WR Percy Harvin
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The New York Jets shocked the NFL world when they completed a midseason trade for mercurial Seahawks receiver Percy Harvin—and they now have a decision to make on Harvin's future on Broadway.
Gone is penny-pinching general manager John Idzik, as he's been replaced by Mike Maccagnan, who has more than $42 million to work with. Harvin carries a cap hit of $10.5 million into 2015, and while he's an extremely gifted physical talent, he has earned his reputation as a malcontent and might not be the choice of Maccagnan and new coach Todd Bowles.
If they were to release Harvin, they could free up some cash for, say, a run at Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas. One way or the other, we'd guess Harvin is not a Jet in 2015.
Prediction: LEAVES
Oakland Raiders: QB Matt Schaub
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Last offseason, the Oakland Raiders traded for quarterback Matt Schaub and signed him to a two-year contract worth $13.5 million.
But things didn't go according to plan, as rookie Derek Carr ended up starting all 16 games for the Silver and Black. And now, Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie must decide whether he'd like to bring Schaub back as Carr's backup.
Working in Schaub's favor is that the Raiders possess $50 million in cap space, so it's feasible that Schaub could return in 2015. He's a reliable veteran option, and with the Raiders flush with money, it makes sense for him to come back.
Prediction: KEEP
Philadelphia Eagles: RB LeSean McCoy
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We know what you're thinking: How could the Philadelphia Eagles possibly have a tough contract decision to make on star running back LeSean McCoy?
As of right now, McCoy is set to earn $11.5 million in 2015, and as Bleacher Report's Andrew Kulp notes, the team could save $7.5 million by cutting ties with the artist known as "Shady" this offseason.
While McCoy sparkled under coach Chip Kelly in 2013, 2014 wasn't as dazzling, as McCoy rushed for only 4.2 yards per carry. McCoy is also aware of the issues surrounding his contract, and he told Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer that less money might not be an option, saying, "I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don't want to take less money."
If McCoy is truly unwilling to budge on a potential restructure of his deal, it's within the realm of possibility that the Eagles could look to move on from the 26-year-old back. But that seems too far-fetched a scenario to consider, especially considering the team has $20 million of cap space to work with.
Prediction: KEEP
Pittsburgh Steelers: S Troy Polamalu
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Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu will head to the Hall of Fame once his career his over—and unfortunately for Steelers fans, that might not come in the Steel City.
The two-time Super Bowl champion finished 2014 as Pro Football Focus' 48th-ranked safety, which is well below his career standards. Per Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, no decisions have been made about Polamalu's future in Pittsburgh.
But the facts point to Polamalu being on the way out. Pittsburgh is $4 million over the cap, and Polamalu carries a 2015 cap charge of $6 million. Given Polamalu's age (33), it makes sense for Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert to consider releasing him.
Obviously, a decision like that would be a tough sell to fans, but it might be necessary for Pittsburgh to alleviate some of its financial issues.
Prediction: LEAVES
San Diego Chargers: RB Ryan Mathews
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The San Diego Chargers barely missed the postseason with a 9-7 record, and possess $22 million of cap space heading into the offseason.
They do have a series of notable free agents—including linebacker Dwight Freeney, cornerback Brandon Flowers and tackle King Dunlap—but running back Ryan Mathews represents the team's toughest contract decision.
Mathews—the club's first-round pick in 2010—has been injury-prone throughout his career, a fact exemplified by Mathews missing seven games last year. But he's been productive when healthy, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in two seasons under coach Mike McCoy.
In an interview with 1090 AM in San Diego, ESPN's Adam Caplan said that a short-term deal would benefit both Mathews and the Chargers. It's tough to imagine Mathews breaking the bank, so he'll probably be back in San Diego for at least one more season.
Prediction: KEEP
San Francisco 49ers: G Mike Iupati
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While the San Francisco 49ers have a number of notable free agents—including receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Frank Gore—none is as important as guard Mike Iupati.
Iupati is a road grader in the run game, finishing 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' second-best run-blocker. He's an absolute mauler and the kind of violent presence that teams crave in the interior of their offensive line.
The 27-year-old Iupati—the team's first-round draft pick in 2010—has expressed a desire to remain in San Francisco, telling Andrew Pentis of 49ers.com, "It's going to suck if I do go somewhere (else). This is my home. I really want to stay here, and I'm sure we'll try to work something out."
The 49ers do possess over $21 million in cap space, so they'll have a shot at retaining Iupati. Keeping him in the fold should be a top priority for general manager Trent Baalke.
Prediction: KEEP
Seattle Seahawks: RB Marshawn Lynch
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First of all: Anyone who expected to see Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson on this list is sorely mistaken. Extending Wilson isn't a tough decision; it's a no-brainer.
Moving on: Should the Seahawks have given the ball to running back Marshawn Lynch in the closing moments of Super Bowl XLIX? Undoubtedly.
While the team bungled that decision, it doesn't appear that they'll mess up bringing Lynch back in 2015, as NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported the Seahawks offered Lynch a "monster" contract extension prior to the Super Bowl.
But that might not be enough to secure the long-term services of the mercurial Lynch. Earlier this week, Seahawks general manager John Schneider told KIRO-AM in Seattle (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL.com) that it's unclear if Lynch will play in 2015.
Seattle can't afford to mess this up as badly as it did the end of the Super Bowl. Schneider and coach Pete Carroll must do everything in their power to make sure the man known as "Beast Mode" is back in the Pacific Northwest in 2015 and beyond.
Prediction: STAYS
St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford
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The St. Louis Rams are entering year four of the coach Jeff Fisher/general manager Les Snead era, and the duo has zero playoff appearances to show for it. So needless to say, Fisher and Snead must do everything in their power to push the club to the next level.
And the biggest question mark facing them is whether to bring back one-time "franchise" quarterback Sam Bradford.
Bradford has torn his ACL in back-to-back seasons—missing 25 games in the process—and has accumulated a starting record of 18-30-1 in five campaigns. Those numbers are hardly commensurate with the amount of money Bradford is scheduled to receive in 2015 (cap hit of $16.58 million).
As ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner writes, the Rams would like to bring back Bradford at a reduced rate. While it's unclear if Bradford has interest in coming back for less money, logic and reason dictate that exact scenario being executed.
Prediction: KEEP
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Michael Johnson
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Last offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers underwent a major transformation—first hiring a new coach (Lovie Smith) and general manager (Jason Licht), and then signing a number of big-name free agents.
The approach obviously went up in flames, as the Buccaneers finished 2-14 and "earned" the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft. And one of the scapegoats for the miserable season could be one of the prized free agents signed last offseason.
Defensive end Michael Johnson—whom the Bucs inked to a five-year, $43 million contract—could be on the chopping block. ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio recently dissected the situation, with the Bucs potentially being on the hook for another $7 million if Johnson is brought back in 2015.
Johnson didn't have a great season, finishing as Pro Football Focus' 53rd-ranked 4-3 defensive end, so it's not like the Bucs will be clamoring to keep him. The expectation should be that Smith and Licht exhaust opportunities to move Johnson, and the safest bet is that Johnson plays elsewhere in 2015.
Prediction: LEAVES
Tennessee Titans: LB Derrick Morgan
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The Tennessee Titans are standing at the precipice of a critical offseason, as they seek to shake their (unofficial) moniker of the league's most nondescript team.
The good news is that coach Ken Whisenhunt and general manager Ruston Webster will have over $34 million in cap space with which to improve the team, and that war chest should allow them to keep any of their own free agents they deem worthy of retaining.
And out of all of Tennessee's impending free agents—including quarterback Jake Locker—none is as important as pass-rushing linebacker Derrick Morgan.
Morgan, 26, finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' eighth-best outside linebacker, compiling 6.5 sacks and proving to be a fit in coordinator Ray Horton's scheme. Sports Illustrated's Doug Farrar agrees with that assessment, having recently referred to Morgan as a "blue-chip player."
Given Tennessee's influx of cash and lack of talent on the roster, it makes all the sense in the world for the club to re-sign Morgan.
Prediction: KEEP
Washington Redskins: LB Brian Orakpo
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Last offseason, the Washington Redskins applied the franchise tag to pass-rushing linebacker Brian Orakpo—and to say that the move blew up in their face would be an understatement.
Orakpo played in only seven games and accumulated only half a sack, falling well short of both his on-field expectations and price tag (2014 cap hit of $11.4 million).
Now, the Redskins find themselves in the same position as last year as it concerns Orakpo, and new general manager Scot McCloughan has a decision to make on Orakpo's future.
As Liz Clarke of The Washington Post details, it would be foolish for McCloughan to open up the checkbook for the underachieving Orakpo. If Orakpo wanted to come back on a cheap, short-term deal, it would certainly behoove the team to listen. But given his age (28) and natural ability, it's safe to assume that another franchise will gamble on his talent and pay him more than his commensurate value.
Because of that fact, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which he remains in our nation's capital.
Prediction: LEAVES
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