College Football Teams That Could Be in for a 2015 Letdown

Wins and losses are a zero-sum metric, so for every team that breaks out in a college football season, another must regress. Where else would those added wins come from?

Calling for regression is a tricky but not impossible science. Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report hit the nail on the head with South Carolina last season, writing in July that the Gamecocks—fresh of three straight 11-win seasons—were getting too much preseason hype.

They promptly finished 7-6.

South Carolina fell victim to roster attrition—one of several factors we looked for in identifying next year's letdown candidates. Others included coaching upturn, schedule considerations and 2014 turnover luck (as calculated by Bill Connelly of SB Nation).

Sound off below, and let us know what you think.

Kansas State Wildcats

USA TODAY Sports

What They Did in 2014 (Record: 9-4)

Bill Snyder pulled another feat of wizardry, cobbling a roster of under-recruited veterans and JUCO transfers into a Big 12 title contender. The Wildcats rose as high as No. 9 in the Associated Press rankings after starting the season 7-1 with a road win at Oklahoma and a loss (that really should have been a win) against Auburn.

Why They Might Regress

The offense loses every important skill player—quarterback Jake Waters, running back DeMarcus Robinson, receivers Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton and tight end Zach Trujillo—and four-year starting center B.J. Finney. Waters in particular leaves a void, as backup Joe Hubener (17 career pass attempts) is a major unknown.

The defense loses defensive end Ryan Mueller, safety Dylan Schellenberg, linebackers Jonathan Truman and Dakorey Johnson, and two other starters. It's not the volume of attrition that will plague the Wildcats next season; it's where that attrition takes place.

5 Hardest Games

1. vs. TCU
2. vs. Baylor
3. at Oklahoma State
4. at Texas
5. vs. Oklahoma

Maryland Terrapins

Nick Wass/Associated Press

What They Did in 2014 (Record: 7-6)

Maryland made a bowl game in its first Big Ten season, finishing 7-6 despite blowing some winnable games (vs. West Virginia, vs. Rutgers). Chief among its wins was a 20-19 nail-biter at Penn State, before which its captains refused to shake hands with PSU's captains and after which Randy Edsall declared: "Let the rivalry begin!"

Why They Might Regress

Even with seven wins, Maryland wasn't "good" per se. It finished No. 54 on the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, and its five-year F/+ average (-2.6 percent) is in the bottom quartile for Power Five teams.

More than that, the Terps lose 12 of 22 starters, including all three defensive linemen and three of four linebackers. Star receiver Stefon Diggs declared early for the NFL draft, and No. 2 receiver Deon Long expended his eligibility. C.J. Brown had a poor senior season at quarterback, but are we sure Caleb Rowe is an upgrade?

5 Hardest Games

1. at Ohio State
2. at Michigan State
3. vs. Wisconsin
4. at West Virginia
5. vs. Penn State (in Baltimore)

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

What They Did in 2014 (Record: 10-3)

Dan Mullen finally got over the hump, leading Mississippi State to its first 10-win season since 1999. Dak Prescott made the leap from very good to great, the defense made timely stops, and the Bulldogs had a real chance to make the playoff until the last week of the season.

Why They Might Regress

No playoff contender relied on more upperclassmen than MSU. Now that comes to roost. Only Kansas, UTSA and South Alabama return fewer starters than the Bulldogs' nine, and the second tier of the depth chart loses meaningful contributors as well.

Chief among the offensive losses: running back Josh Robinson, receiver Jameon Lewis and linemen Ben Beckwith, Blaine Clausell and Dillon Day. Chief among the defensive losses: linemen Kaleb Eulls and Preston Smith, cornerback Jamerson Love and linebackers Christian Holmes, Matthew Wells and Benardrick McKinney.

5 Hardest Games

1. at Auburn
2. vs. Alabama
3. at Texas A&M
4. vs. Ole Miss
5. vs. LSU

Oregon Ducks

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

What They Did in 2014 (Record: 13-2)

Oregon won its first Pac-12 title since 2011, after which it made the College Football Playoff and beat Florida State in the Rose Bowl but lost to Ohio State in the national title game. Marcus Mariota had one of the most ridiculous seasons of the past decade and won the Heisman Trophy with a record-breaking degree of unanimity.

Why They Might Regress

It doesn't matter how well Vernon Adams Jr.—Mariota's most likely replacement—or any other Oregon QB plays. Not if the offensive line can't block. And with Hroniss Grasu, Jake Fisher and Hamani Stevens out of the picture, there are serious questions up front.

But the bigger questions exist on defense, where defensive end Arik Armstead, cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, safety Erick Dargan and linebackers Derrick Malone and Tony Washington all depart, leaving the depth chart ravaged of its best players at every level.

Lastly—and this one is important—Oregon recovered 68.1 percent of available fumbles last season, per Bill Connelly of SB Nation. That was the highest rate in the country—i.e., Oregon had the best fumble luck of any team in the country—and contributed to the Ducks' FBS-best turnover margin. But it's also wildly unsustainable.

(Especially without Mariota.)

5 Hardest Games

1. at Michigan State
2. vs. USC
3. at Stanford
4. at Arizona State
5. at Washington

Utah Utes

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

What They Did in 2014 (Record: 9-4)

Led by a viscous defense, Utah went 9-4 and made a bowl game for the first time in three seasons. The Utes had never won nine games in the Pac-12 after four straight nine-win seasons in the Mountain West. Things could not have ended on a higher note than the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, when Utah drilled Colorado State 45-10.

Why They Might Regress

Because of everything that's happened since December.

Offensive coordinator Dave Christensen and defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake both left for other jobs, and head coach Kyle Whittingham clashed loudly with the athletic department. He has since agreed to stay at Utah, but the way in which the saga unfolded was troubling.

There's also the personnel losses, highlighted by All-American defensive end Nate Orchard and senior defensive backs Brian Belchen and Eric Rowe. Between those three and Sitake, the Utes lost a ton of leadership (and production) from their signature unit.

5 Hardest Games

1. at USC
2. at Arizona
3. vs. UCLA
4. vs. Arizona State
5. at Washington