2015 NBA Rising Stars Challenge: Which Team Has the Edge at Every Position?
One of the NBA's most exciting All-Star Weekend events got a little spicier this year.
The new format of the 2015 BBVA Compass Rising Stars Challenge pits USA's top talent against the best of the world, and it will make for some must-see matchups.
The Association's premier rookies and sophomores will square off at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Friday, Feb. 13, at 9 p.m. ET on TNT. Representatives from Australia, Canada, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Montenegro and Senegal will face USA competition hailing from 10 different states.
There are several intriguing pairings of note. The shooting guard showdown features the most explosive player on each team: Andrew Wiggins and Victor Oladipo. Small forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shabazz Muhammad figure to put their stamp on the game as well. And don't forget about acrobatic centers Rudy Gobert and Mason Plumlee.
Who will assert their will in the paint? Which guard corps is better-equipped? Keep in mind, the reserves off the bench might decide the game's outcome.
Let's break down which team has the edge at each position.
*Based on projected starting lineups and bench depth.
Center: Mason Plumlee (USA) vs. Rudy Gobert (World)
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Plumlee Hometown: Arden, North Carolina
Plumlee Stats (BKN): 23.4 MPG, 10.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 59% FG
Gobert Hometown: Saint-Quentin, France
Gobert Stats (UTA): 21.8 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 64% FG
These aren't your father's centers.
In the post, we're treated to a battle between two ultra-rangy, athletic big men. Both Rudy Gobert and Mason Plumlee can cover mountains of space horizontally and vertically, and they're starting to unlock the keys to nightly success as sophomores.
Plumlee has seen more minutes and more touches offensively over the past couple of seasons for the Brooklyn Nets, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll have the upper hand in his matchup with Gobert. After all, the French import is nicknamed the "Stifle Tower" for good reason.
Among frontcourt players who have played at least 30 games, the Utah Jazz center yields the stingiest field-goal percentage at the rim (37 percent). His length and instincts alter bucketloads of shots every game. Plumlee will have to unleash his best moves and take advantage of broken plays or fast breaks.
Both competitors will enjoy a few roof-scraping dunks and eye-popping blocks, but Gobert gets the nod in this matchup.
As long as he's on the floor, Plumlee will have a tough time collecting rebounds, finding angles and scoring deep in the paint. Gobert won't churn out much offense himself, but his ability to blanket the rim gives him the edge.
Advantage: World
Power Forward: Cody Zeller (USA) vs. Nikola Mirotic (World)
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Zeller Hometown: Washington, Indiana
Zeller Stats (CHA): 24.5 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 45% FG, 75% FT
Mirotic Hometown: Titograd, Montenegro
Mirotic Stats (CHI): 17.1 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 40% FG, 35% 3PT
Both starting power forwards are skilled and come from basketball-rich backgrounds. But they exhibit contrasting styles.
Montenegro native Nikola Mirotic is a stretch 4 and a combo forward, making a living off his shooting touch for the Chicago Bulls. A sizable chunk of his offense comes from three-land, and he can also attack closeouts and connect from mid-range. Charlotte Hornets sophomore Cody Zeller is more apt to attack the basket and draw fouls, only occasionally splashing two-point jumpers.
Mirotic will get some open threes in this Rising Stars clash, but when he's in close proximity to Zeller, the American will have a slight advantage.
Zeller is stronger and more athletic, and he'll likely outplay Mirotic defensively. The Indiana native boasts a better defensive field-goal percentage (43.5 percent compared to 46.4), and his physical tools will bottle up Mirotic better than Mirotic can slow him down.
Also, the up-and-down pace of this game will favor Zeller. Mirotic is quick and mobile, but Zeller is a more agile transition talent and a better above-the-rim player. Just check out his career night (21 points) against the Denver Nuggets a couple of weeks ago.
Advantage: USA
Small Forward: Shabazz Muhammad (USA) vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo (World)
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Muhammad Hometown: Las Vegas, Nevada
Muhammad Stats (MIN): 23.3 MPG, 13.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 49% FG, 40% 3PT
Antetokounmpo Hometown: Athens, Greece
Antetokounmpo Stats (MIL): 29.5 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.5 APG, 51% FG
The Scorer vs. The Swiss Army Knife. The much-hyped college prospect vs. the out-of-nowhere European sensation. Shabazz vs. The Greek Freak.
Their paths to NBA sophomore success are as different as their playing styles. Shabazz Muhammad was a highly touted UCLA product who ended up needing some D-League time as a rookie, while Giannis Antetokounmpo found regular minutes early in his career despite being a raw teenager.
It's tough to project who will shine brighter when they lace 'em up Friday.
Muhammad's scoring (21.4 points per 36 minutes), which includes three-point prowess and aggressive forays to the rim, might drastically influence this game. In this contest's wide-open style, he could heat up like a grease fire.
"Muhammad has enjoyed a productivity spike not because he's changed his game, but because he's emphasized the preexisting skills that once made him such a highly touted prospect," wrote B/R's Grant Hughes. "The vastly improved physical condition, of course, has made everything easier."
However, Antetokounmpo won't exactly suffer in the up-and-down environment. (That's an understatement.) While Muhammad is long and athletic, Antetokounmpo is even more expansive. The Greek Freak, with his size and effort, will do a decent job of slowing down Muhammad, and he'll make some offensive plays of his own throughout the contest.
The Nevada native is a better shooter and scorer, so it's difficult to vote against him. But Antetokounmpo has a better knack for collaborating with those around him, and he should match up well with Muhammad in the open floor.
The Freak wins, by a hair.
Advantage: World
Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo (USA) vs. Andrew Wiggins (World)
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Oladipo Hometown: Upper Marlboro, Maryland
Oladipo Stats (ORL): 34.1 MPG, 16.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 44% FG, 35% 3PT
Wiggins Hometown: Toronto (Ontario), Canada
Wiggins Stats (MIN): 34.4 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 43% FG, 36% 3PT
Canada's chosen mega-prodigy has a distinct height and length advantage over Victor Oladipo, yet the Minnesota Timberwolves rookie will have his hands full with the Orlando Magic guard.
In his first half-season as a pro, Andrew Wiggins has offered glimpses of his potential and increasingly probable stardom. He's the clear-cut favorite for Rookie of the Year, and in a short time he will likely outshine players like Oladipo on a regular basis.
But for now, the sophomore has a great chance to outduel the rookie and have a greater impact on this Rising Stars game.
"Oladipo arguably is the best player in the (Rising Stars) game," said USA Today's Adi Joseph.
Not only is the second-year stud an explosive finisher and a high-octane defender, but he's also an innovative playmaker who can slice through defenses and generate offense for the whole team.
He creates more proficiently than Wiggins, who attacks predominantly for himself at this stage. Oladipo maneuvers his way to twice as many assists per game as Wiggins, and his assist percentage (19.0) also dwarfs that of the young Timberwolf (9.1).
I'm not ruling out the Toronto-bred youngster's potential to break loose for some game-changing plays in transition. However, Oladipo has ample quickness and just enough length to keep him in check during half-court scenarios, and there's plenty in his offensive arsenal to compete for MVP honors.
Advantage: USA
Point Guard: Trey Burke (USA) vs. Dennis Schroder (World)
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Burke Hometown: Columbus, Ohio
Burke Stats (UTA): 31.5 MPG, 12.6 PPG, 4.7. APG, 37% FG, 32% 3PT
Schroder Hometown: Braunschweig, Germany
Schroder Stats (ATL): 18.0 MPG, 8.5 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 RPG, 44% FG, 30% 3PT
Philadelphia 76ers star Michael Carter-Williams was originally slated to run the point for the U.S., but he will reportedly miss the game with a sore right foot (per David Pick of EuroBasket).
Stepping up to take the reins for the Red, White and Blue is Utah Jazz guard Trey Burke. The second-year guard has a difficult assignment, as he'll be grappling with Atlanta Hawks sophomore Dennis Schroder.
After riding the pine for much of last year, the Hawks' German import is much more comfortable, productive and efficient as an NBA floor general in 2015. He's one of the most dynamic backup point guards in the league, and many of his statistics rival or surpass those of Burke.
Schroder is a more productive distributor than his American opponent, because he's a speedier slasher and creates more havoc. He's also scoring more points per minute and forcing more turnovers on the defensive side.
Burke is a better outside shooter and will do his best to match the German's playmaking efforts, but Schroder will make a greater impact in this game. He's simply a better two-way point guard.
Advantage: World
Backcourt Bench
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USA: Elfrid Payton (Orlando Magic PG), Zach LaVine (Minnesota Timberwolves PG/SG), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Detroit Pistons SG)
World: Dante Exum (Utah Jazz PG/SG), Bojan Bogdanovic (Brooklyn Nets SG/SF), Matthew Dellavedova (Cleveland Cavaliers PG)
Dante Exum was basically playing high school ball a year-and-a-half ago, and Elfrid Payton was playing for a mid-major college school. Now the two are already impressive NBA defenders, and they'll likely clash a few times Friday as the first guards off the bench.
From a size and skill standpoint, it will be a competitive matchup. Payton will earn the upper hand gradually, thanks to his superior playmaking arsenal.
It will also be fun to see if Exum's physical tools and Matthew Dellavedova's energy can challenge Payton and Zach LaVine, who are two of the most electrifying guards in the league.
At shooting guard, Bojan Bogdanovic has more pro hoops experience than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Nevertheless, the Detroit Pistons wing is outgunning the Brooklyn Nets newbie from distance this season, and he's a more nimble asset.
Ultimately, the USA has more backcourt athleticism and the best dime-dropper (Elfrid Payton, 7.3 assists per 36) of the bunch. Payton's defense and creativity coupled with the open-floor exploits of LaVine and KCP should outdo the World backcourt.
Advantage: USA
*Michael Carter-Williams was selected to the USA team but will not play due to injury.
Frontcourt Bench
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USA: Nerlens Noel (Philadelphia 76ers PF/C), Robert Covington (Philadelphia 76ers F)
World: Gorgui Dieng (Minnesota Timberwolves C), Kostas Papanikolaou (Houston Rockets SF)
Nerlens Noel has been a disappointment thus far for the Philadelphia 76ers, but he's beginning to produce more offensively. Meanwhile, Robert Covington has been a pleasant surprise for Brett Brown's squad, supplying three-point shooting and defense.
Philly's duo won't waltz through this exhibition unencumbered.
The international outfit is bolstered by the multidimensional work of Gorgui Dieng and Kostas Papanikolaou. Dieng hasn't grabbed a ton of headlines this year, but he's expanded his role and his skills in Minnesota. Kyle Ratke of Timberwolves.com explains:
"He’s improving, that’s for sure. He looks more comfortable and the numbers confirm that. His 50 percent from the field is up two percentage points from last season, which might not seem like much, but considering he’s taking almost four more shots per game, it’s significant. He’s also 80.4 percent from the free-throw line, up 17 percent from last season and incredibly impressive for a big man. What’s been most impressive, though, is Dieng’s ability to keep the defense honest with his mid-range shot.
"
Dieng discussed that mid-range game, which includes a Dirk Nowitzki-style fadeaway:
"I think Jack (Sikma) helped out a lot (last year). He taught me a lot of things,” Dieng told Ratke. "But it’s all about how many repetitions you can get on the court. I’ve been playing a lot and I get more and more comfortable."
With the upgraded version of Dieng and swingman finesse from Papanikolaou, the World reserves should give the Americans a good battle.
Although Dieng is a more well-rounded player than Noel, Covington's advantage over the Greek swingman is enough to tip the scales in favor of the USA.
Advantage: USA
*Note: Steven Adams and Kelly Olynyk were selected to the World Team, but they will not play due to injury. Jusuf Nurkic was selected as a replacement, but he has pulled out of the game as well, per Shams Charania of RealGM.com.
Prediction
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The international team is taller and longer at most positions. USA has an athletic contingent of guards. Both teams have dynamic wings.
It looks like we're in for a closely contested bout.
There isn't as much firepower in this game compared to recent years (think John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, etc). I wouldn't be surprised if it is lower scoring and slightly more defensive than usual (think Rudy Gobert, Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, The Greek Freak).
Even though it's a free-flowing exhibition, the defensive ranginess of the World squad has a chance to stymie the guard play of the United States.
"Look at the defensive roadblocks the international team can deploy...the wall that Wiggins, Antetokounmpo, Schroder and Exum can build on the perimeter," writes B/R's Zach Buckley.
With that in mind, we can't downplay the blend of skill and explosiveness the USA owns in Oladipo, Plumlee, Zeller and the bench. They are going to give the World's rim protecters a huge test.
If wings such as Shabazz Muhammad and Robert Covington can out-shoot the likes of Antetokounmpo and Papanikolaou, it could be the difference in the game. That would maximize the playmaking efforts of Oladipo, Burke and Payton.
The USA will defend its home soil in a tight one.
Prediction: USA 118, World 115
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are current heading into Feb. 11's games.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA and NBA draft for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
