5 Things We've Learned About the Indiana Pacers so Far This Season
The Indiana Pacers are not where they hoped to be heading into the All-Star break. They knew things would be tough without Paul George, but the team was looking to compete for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Pacers are 15 games under .500, and four games out of the last playoff slot.
ESPN's Playoff Odds currently give the Pacers just a 12.5 percent chance of closing the gap and making the postseason. Even with the accumulated disappointment of 49 games and just a small chance of making the playoffs, the Pacers have learned a lot this season about their roster and what their future challenges might be.
Improvement has been absent in a few expected places and appeared spontaneously in some unexpected ones. The struggles of the supporting cast have been frustratingly familiar and the biggest need is obvious.
Here is what we've learned about the Pacers.
George Hill Has a Lot to Offer
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George Hill has played just 221 minutes for the Pacers this season, battling through several injuries. During that run, he has shown he's capable of providing much than the Pacers have ever asked of him.
Even when Hill has been in the lineup, a health-related minutes restriction has depressed his per-game averages. But his per-36 line—22.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.0 steal—is eye-popping. He's also shooting a career-high from inside the three-point line and getting to the free-throw line more than he ever has in a Pacers uniform.
All of those individual achievements are translating to the team level in a big way. When he's been out of the game, the Pacers have been getting outscored by an average 4.3 points per 100 possessions, with an offensive efficiency that would rank 29th in the league, according to NBA.com. In the 221 minutes he's been on the floor, the Pacers are outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per 100 possessions, with an offensive efficiency that would rank fifth in the league.
These numbers do need to be taken with a grain of salt until we can see them sustained across a larger stretch of the season. Still, they can be taken as a sign that, moving forward, Hill could be capable of filling some of the scoring void left by Lance Stephenson's departure.
In the past, the Pacers have needed Hill to fill the role of a more conventional point guard. As they look forward to next season, an expanded offensive role for him could open up all sorts of possibilities.
Roy Hibbert Is Who He Is
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Without George and Stephenson, the thought was that this season was an opportunity for Roy Hibbert to reassert himself as an interior scorer. The rapid disintegration of his offensive efficiency was a huge thread in the narrative of the Pacers' undoing last year. This season, the team's needs were supposed to give him an opportunity to rebuild his confidence and rediscover his rhythm.
Hibbert has bounced back offensively to some degree, but not as anticipated. He's shooting 45.6 percent from the field, his highest mark in three seasons, and attempting 14.0 field goals per 36 minutes, his highest mark in four seasons. And yet, his offensive impact is paper-thin.
Hibbert's free-throw numbers are almost identical to his career averages, and his offensive rebound rate is a career low. His Offensive Box Plus-Minus, a box score-derived estimate of his impact per 100 possessions, is -3.3, a near carbon copy of last season's which was the lowest of his career.
Any hope that this season would be an offensive leap forward for Hibbert has evaporated. He is, at best, a wash at that end of the floor, and it doesn't seem like that's going to change.
The good news is Hibbert has continued to be a dominant defensive force, even with a mostly new perimeter rotation. The Pacers' defense is still among the league's best. According to Seth Partnow's Rim Protection statistics, Hibbert is saving the fourth-most points in the league per 36 minutes, trailing only Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside and Andrew Bogut.
Roy Hibbert is the same player he has always been. The Pacers have worked around his offensive deficiencies in the past to play at an elite level.
They'll have to solve the same puzzle to get back there.
Solomon Hill Is a Useful Piece
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As a rookie, Solomon Hill played just 226 minutes for the Pacers.
He probably would have been on a similar track this season if injuries to Paul George, Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles, C.J. Watson and George Hill hadn't opened four doors and a window for him.
Hill has not been a revelation or a star in the making. He's shooting just 38.2 percent from the field and has made just 32.5 percent of his jump shots.
What he has been is a fearless contributor and a hard-working defender, flashing signs of a promising all-around game. In 31.5 minutes per night, Hill is putting up 9.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.0 steals.
Hill has all sorts of refinements to make—making his defense more consistent and figuring out how to make a jump shot should be first among them. Still, the Pacers are a team short on youth, the kind whose natural development can help bring the team to another level.
It's easy to picture him being a solid second-unit contributor next season when Paul George is back and the Pacers are once again trying to fight their way to the top of the Eastern Conference.
The Supporting Cast Needs to Be Rebuilt Again
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The Pacers core—Roy Hibbert, Paul George, David West and George Hill—has been intact for several seasons now. As that group has improved each year, the team has reached new heights. And yet every offseason the front office faces the same challenge: figuring out how to surround them with productive role players.
Over the past three summers, D.J. Augustin, Gerald Green, C.J. Watson and Luis Scola have all been plugged into the Pacers' second unit. They have all been disappointments in various ways. Last summer's new additions—Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles and Damjan Rudez—appear to be on the same path.
All three have a Box Plus-Minus at least one point per 100 possessions below the mark of an average player, with Rudez and Miles rating out as negatives on both offense and defense.
As a group, they are shooting 40.2 percent from the field and 32.7 percent on three-pointers. The last number is particularly troubling as Miles and Rudez were brought in specifically to bolster the Pacers' outside shooting and floor spacing.
Beyond the quartet of Hibbert, George, West and Hill, the only other players under contract for next season will be Ian Mahinmi, Miles and Rudez. The Pacers also have a team option on Solomon Hill and can extend qualifying offers to Chris Copeland and Shayne Whittington, although both seem unlikely.
That leaves the Pacers with several roster spots, money to spend and plenty of unanswered questions in the second unit.
We've heard this story before.
The Pacers Need Paul George
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The biggest lesson of this season is also the most obvious—the Pacers desperately need Paul George.
Conversation heated up this week when Larry Bird talked with reporters and mentioned the possibility of George's return before the end of this season:
"It seems like every week Paul is getting better and better. So if we do have an opportunity to get into the playoffs and [George] can get some games under his belt and get ready to go next year...I always say if a player is ready to play, they gotta play.
"
George himself discussed the topic with reporters, including the Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner, just a few days later, saying, "I want to be back out there playing. That's just my competitive side. Again, I know it's not a likelihood at this point, but I'm definitely pushing it and working hard to make it possible."
Hearing George is getting better every week is great news, and the decision on whether he should play this season, if healthy, is a complicated one. Whether he ultimately is back on the floor this season or next, the Pacers just aren't the same without him.
George is an elite two-way player, and without him in the lineup the Pacers simply can't rise to that elite level as a team.
We have watched them play tough and compete hard this season, working through adversity while trying to refine their offensive and defensive execution in the process.
With all those positives in place and all the talent left on the roster, they're still 15 games under .500 playing in the Eastern Conference.
If the Pacers have aspirations of chasing a championship, they have to have Paul George.
Get well soon, Paul.
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