10 NBA Players Primed for Big Second-Half Leaps in 2015
We've passed the halfway point of the 2014-15 NBA season, which means slow starters are running out of time to speed up and dormant volcanoes of talent have only a couple more months to erupt.
In some cases, second-half surges have felt inevitable. Kawhi Leonard, for example, probably would have continued building on the momentum of his NBA Finals MVP award this year if not for a hand injury that stopped him in his tracks. Predicting he'll go off from February to April feels exceedingly safe.
Other cases have nothing to do with injury-driven delays and everything to do with motivation.
Damian Lillard and DeMarcus Cousins didn't earn All-Star nods from fans or coaches (Cousins later made it as an injury replacement), which could fuel a pair of "I'll show you" second-half performances. For entertainment's sake, let's hope that's what happens.
Finally, we'll run through a few young players who look ready to ripen this spring after surviving a bitter learning curve all winter.
Get ready, because these 10 players—many of whom have already played exceptionally well this year—could be in for a serious leap in the second half.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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We've already spoiled this one, so it's probably best to start with the San Antonio Spurs' 23-year-old rising star.
In many respects, Leonard has already made the leap. A Finals MVP is a pretty good indicator you've done something special.
At the same time, we should expect another jump in performance from the heir to the throne in San Antonio. Leonard has played only 30 games this year, and his increased usage rate (a career-high 22.6 percent, per Basketball-Reference.com) indicates he's going to be a big part of the Spurs' plans going forward. He has to be; the roster's core is only getting older, and it'll need to lean on Leonard all the harder if there's to be any hope of keeping the Big Three healthy for a playoff run.
Leonard's efficiency has been down—partly because of his increased volume, partly because he played a handful of ineffective games after injuring his hand in mid-December, but mainly because he still hasn't knocked all the rust off after spending a month recovering.
"Someday Timmy, Tony and Manu are not going to be there. And Kawhi is going to be the most talented kid on the team, unless we come up with somebody somewhere who is going to be more talented,'' Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, laughing, told Ian Thomsen of NBA.com. "But I don't think we're going to.''
He's right, and Leonard may need to ascend into his leadership role sooner than later.
He's ready.
Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Barring a commissioner's mandate to exclude Canadians from Rookie of the Year consideration, Andrew Wiggins has this season's award sewn up.
That's impressive, considering he's likely to get even better in the second half.
January was a banner month for the 19-year-old, marked by 47.1 percent shooting, 19.8 points per game and all the minutes he could handle. Saying Wiggins is going to improve over the next couple of months is really just the result of looking at his upward-trending numbers in the first half.
But it's also an acknowledgment of what Ricky Rubio, now back in the rotation after nearly three months on the sidelines, means to the Minnesota Timberwolves' young talent.
With an ace facilitator setting him up, Wiggins can mix in a few spoon-fed gimmes with his hard-earned isolation attacks. The buckets Rubio creates for him will help keep the statistical climb going, while also helping conserve energy for the occasional dalliance with defense.
Minnesota has a gem in Wiggins, and Rubio is going to help him shine all the brighter down the stretch.
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
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It'll be hard for Lillard to play better than he already has this year, but you can bet he'll be motivated to try.
"I’m definitely going to take it personal,” Lillard told reporters, via Lang Whitaker of NBA.com. “I said I’d be pissed off about it. And I am. I just felt disrespected."
In addition to taking out his All-Star frustrations on the league, Lillard may need to up his game just to keep the Portland Trail Blazers among the Western Conference's elite. LaMarcus Aldridge is playing with an injured hand that will require surgery this offseason, Robin Lopez is only just now rejoining the rotation, Nicolas Batum has been a wreck all year, and the top tier in the West is only getting more crowded.
The Blazers need Lillard to play an even bigger role than he already is.
It seems like he's got sufficient motivation.
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings
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This one's risky because the Sacramento Kings' unraveling could accelerate in the second half, which might result in a disinterested Cousins mailing in the next couple of months. Since firing Mike Malone, whom Cousins unreservedly liked, the Kings have slipped in the standings and are now a certain lottery team.
The vibes in Sacramento aren't great.
But great is exactly what Cousins has been this season, and when his sparkling stats (he's been among the league's top 10 in player efficiency rating all season long, per Basketball-Reference.com) weren't enough to convince coaches he belonged on the All-Star roster, it became clear that his exclusion was personal. Whether that's fair or not (you can make a strong case that the coaches are justified in looking at Cousins' salty demeanor and lack of team success when making their picks) is beside the point.
As is the fact that he ultimately made the team as an injury replacement for Kobe Bryant.
What matters is that Cousins can now channel his frustration in a way that could provide a bump for his already gaudy stats. If he can't change perceptions about his reputation, maybe he can play so well, so dominantly, that everyone—coaches and fans alike—will be forced to acknowledge how absurdly effective he is on the court.
Put it this way: You really don't want to be a Western Conference big man tasked with guarding DMC in the second half.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks
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Giannis Antetokounmpo only does one thing: get better.
It's all he knows. From developing his ball-handling to literally growing a couple of inches since being drafted in 2013, the Greek Freak's NBA trajectory has yet to do anything but continue upward.
In January, he averaged a season-high 31.2 minutes per game, which coincided with the Milwaukee Bucks posting their highest winning percentage in any month this season. After hanging 12 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and two blocks on the Toronto Raptors to kick off February, Antetokounmpo looks primed to keep rising.
The only question now: How high is his ceiling?
From Josh Rubin of The Toronto Star: "Asked who else he’s seen with such a wide array of skills at such a young age, [Bucks head coach Jason Kidd] named a couple of perennial NBA all-stars. 'Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan were pretty good,' Kidd deadpanned."
Buckle up.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have been on fire since getting LeBron James back from a two-week rest in mid-January, but Kevin Love's performance has never moved very far past lukewarm.
He's been rebounding like crazy, registering at least 10 boards in seven of his last nine games, but his shooting stroke has all but deserted him. On the year, he's hitting just 42.4 percent of his shots from the field and 33 percent from long range.
As Cleveland continues to hone its offensive rhythm, we should expect Love's shot to start falling. Though his status as a third option may mean the high-usage days he enjoyed in Minnesota are probably gone for good, there's no reason his efficiency can't return to pre-Cavs levels.
We know he's putting in the time. After registering a plus-26 plus-minus in a win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Feb. 2, Love, who made just one shot from the field goal, "returned to the court at Quicken Loans Arena immediately following the game for shooting drills with the help of player development coach Phil Handy to clean up things on his shot," Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com reported.
Love's regression to the mean is coming, and that should worry the teams ahead of Cleveland (for now) in the East.
Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls
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It's time.
There's nothing physical holding Derrick Rose back anymore. No concerns about his knee. No nagging ankle injuries. Nothing.
Instead, it's shot selection that has limited Rose of late. And that's fixable.
Rose has attempted 5.6 threes per game this year, a career high, despite connecting on just 29.9 percent of them. He shot 34.4 percent from deep in January, which is a positive sign if he's going to keep chucking instead of driving.
But as he learns to trust his body more, Rose might swap out some of those deep ones for close-range tries. We've seen him dart to the hoop with his trademark quickness once in a while, which indicates the burst is still there. If he's willing to use it more often, his efficiency could spike.
The Chicago Bulls need that attack-mode version of Rose to show up if they're going to steady the ship. Chicago has been reeling of late, losing nine of its last 14 games to close out the month of January.
Maybe it's naive given all the fits and starts that have marked Rose's frustrating two-year road back, but there's still hope he can take that final step to recapture greatness.
His body's ready. If his mind's right, this could be a massive second half for D-Rose.
Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz and Dante Exum, PG, Utah Jazz
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Pick one: the leviathan-armed Frenchman anchoring the middle or the rangy, raw Australian point guard who's taken over starting duties.
It doesn't really matter which, as both Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum are in position to improve in the season's second half.
Gobert is further along in his development. He's impacting the game on defense in a big way, limiting opponents to just 37.1 percent shooting at the rim on 6.9 attempts per game. No other defender has been as big of a deterrent on such a high volume of shots this season, per NBA.com.
As the Utah Jazz become less and less relevant in the West, they'll have no excuse for keeping Gobert off the floor for extended minutes. That means his breakout is only just beginning.
Exum is well behind Gobert's developmental pace, but he's been given the starting job over Trey Burke, which means he won't want for opportunities in the coming months.
Exum can be a disruptor on defense, and he's already a more willing ball-mover than Burke.
"The Jazz like what Exum's bringing to the lineup. They like that the ball is moving more via the pass than the dribble. They like that the team is getting into the offense more quickly," wrote Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune.
There'll be growing pains, but Exum's range, feel and occasional "Did you see that?" burst portend a step forward in the second half.
Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics
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According to Jay King of MassLive.com, the Boston Celtics may jump-start rookie Marcus Smart's second half by inserting him into the starting lineup.
Evan Turner has been a bust at point guard, and the C's need someone who can defend and knock down an outside shot.
Enter Smart, who defends tenaciously and hits threes at a 36.8 percent clip. Slotting him ahead of Turner fills short-term needs while also servicing the Celtics' long-term goals. Smart has a future with Boston, probably as its multiyear answer at point guard. It has every incentive to get him reps.
Turner is a short-timer, a stopgap auditioning for his next contract.
This switch was bound to happen eventually. Given a bigger role, Smart has the inherent competitiveness and leadership chops to run with it. Even if he doesn't make a statistical leap, Smart may be taking the first steps toward becoming a real franchise cornerstone, which, if you're the Celtics, is what you need him to be.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
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The groundwork for Andre Drummond's second-half surge was laid before Christmas when Josh Smith got his walking papers, and the Detroit Pistons' frontcourt suddenly got a lot less crowded.
Though Greg Monroe has arguably been the bigger beneficiary to this point, we should expect Drummond, still just 21, to flourish as the focal point of Stan Van Gundy's favored inside-out attack.
There's just too much potential lurking inside Drummond's giant frame, and Van Gundy has too much experience molding athletic phenomena into superstar centers, for Detroit's big man not to improve.
A steady diet of post-up chances earlier in the year may have formed the foundation of a serviceable back-to-the-basket game, and there's simply no stopping Drummond on the offensive glass. If he keeps his motor running and pulls together all of the various lessons he's learned this season, he could dominate down the stretch.
And if nothing else, we should expect his 49.1 percent shooting to improve dramatically. Remember, he made a ridiculous 62.3 percent of his shots last season.
