NFL Draft Order 2015: Swing Selections That Will Alter How 1st Round Plays Out

Swing picks, as they're currently viewed in our draft vocabulary, are often mislabeled. A "swing pick" cannot come late through the first round. The Chargers at No. 17 cannot fundamentally change the outlook of the entire round with one selection.

Swing picks, as correctly defined, need to have power. There needs to be a legitimate trickle-down effect. A team grabbing the fourth-best defensive lineman isn't going to have much affect on a team considering the fifth-best because at that point, grades are relatively similar.

Big swings on draft night happen when a team makes an unexpected move and rips a truly elite star off the board earlier than expected or goes against conventional wisdom positionally.

For instance: When the Dolphins traded up to No. 3 during the 2013 draft, everyone had them pegged for Oklahoma's Lane Johnson. Miami was in desperate need of a left tackle, having just lost Jake Long, and the Jaguars had already pilfered Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel. Then jaws kind of dropped as the words "Dion Jordan" came out of the commissioner's mouth. Johnson went one selection later, and Jordan's ascent created a trickle-down effect for at least the next handful of picks.

So, that's a swing pick. With that in mind, let's take a look at the teams most likely to pull something similar in April.

Pick	Team
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2	Tennessee Titans
3	Jacksonville Jaguars
4	Oakland Raiders
5	Washington Redskins
6	New York Jets
7	Chicago Bears
8	Atlanta Falcons
9	New York Giants
10	St. Louis Rams
11	Minnesota Vikings
12	Cleveland Browns
13	New Orleans Saints
14	Miami Dolphins
15	San Francisco 49ers
16	Houston Texans
17	San Diego Chargers
18	Kansas City Chiefs
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)
20	Philadelphia Eagles
21	Cincinnati Bengals
22	Pittsburgh Steelers
23	Detroit Lions
24	Arizona Cardinals
25	Carolina Panthers
26	Baltimore Ravens
27	Dallas Cowboys
28	Denver Broncos
29	Indianapolis Colts
30	Green Bay Packers
31	Seattle Seahawks
32	New England Patriots

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Obviously. The Bucs are widely expected to choose between the draft's top two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, come April. That much should be obvious by now. Tampa's signal-callers were among the NFL's worst in most major categories, and Winston and Mariota have been consensus top-five selections all season.

Who Tampa selects, however, could have major implications down the board.

If they go with Mariota, the process is self-explanatory. The Titans will leap to the podium and grab Jameis Winston with the second overall pick. Winston is everything Ken Whisenhunt favors in young quarterbacks. He's big, strong-armed and has mediocre (or even below-average) mobility.  The only thing wrong with Winston, it appears, is that he actually has football talent. Whisenhunt's flyers in Arizona and Tennessee have so far been lacking in that department.

If the Bucs roll the dice on Winston, though, the situation gets murkier. Whisenhunt's forte has not been working with mobile quarterbacks. Jake Locker is probably the most "mobile" guy Whisenhunt has had in his career running offenses, and it appeared at times like the Titans coach would've rather had the punter under center. Locker's unceremonious benching for Zach Mettenberger remains an oddity I've not quite comprehended.

What's more, it might be better for Mariota to avoid Tennessee altogether. We've seen Whisenhunt have success with already-established quarterbacks. His development track record is much more spotty. Outside Ben Roethlisberger, to whom direct comparisons Winston can be made, he's generally done a poor job finding and honing young talents.

Mariota is going to need an organization that will be patient as he learns how to throw into smaller windows and hones his accuracy. Whisenhunt isn't that coach. If Tampa keeps Winston in the state of Florida, we might see a little free fall from Mariota as a result.

5. Washington

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

What do you get the team that basically needs everything? Washington is weak in every facet of the game. It was the only team to rank 27th or worse in offense, defense and special teams in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Not even the damn Jaguars managed that, and they lost to Washington, 41-10, in Week 2.

It takes a special brand of terrible to pull off Washington's futility in 2014. This pick could theoretically go anywhere. If by some act of God Mariota is available at No. 5, would it shock anyone if Dan Snyder blew up the Robert Griffin III era once and for all? Wide receiver seems unlikely with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the mix, but Garcon has a cap number of $9.7 million next season, and Amari Cooper is great at football.

Richard Lipski/Associated Press

The most likely scenario sees Washington shoring up one of its lines. Iowa's Brandon Scherff looks like a decade-long starter at right tackle. Selecting him might seem like a reach for the non-premium tackle spot, but Trent Williams is only 27; Scherff and Williams could develop into Dallas-esque outside anchors for the line.

Cornerback is the biggest need spot on defense, but there isn't value there. Going with a pass-rusher to potentially replace Brian Orakpo and play across from Ryan Kerrigan makes some sense. In a scenario where Oakland goes with Cooper, Washington could end up with an All-Big Ten linebacking corps with Randy Gregory.

Either way, when a team needs talent at that many positions, it's a swing pick by default.

10. St. Louis Rams

David Quinn/Associated Press

Thanks in large part to Washington's generosity, the Rams have had plenty of chances to shore up their weaknesses. The results have been a mixed bag. Tavon Austin and Greg Robinson have been colossal disappointments. Janoris Jenkins, Michael Brockers and Alec Ogletree have been regular contributors, ranging from meh (Brockers) to damn good (Ogletree).

What we can agree on, though, is St. Louis did not do enough with those selections to turn it into an all-time flop. Given the picks the Rams received in that deal, it could have gone down as the worst in professional sports history. Austin's dreadful first two seasons and Robinson's massively disappointing first may mean the Rams blew their best high-priority selections.

As such, they'll enter April with two holes at the positions Robinson and Austin occupy: offensive tackle and wide receiver.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The Rams were banking on Jake Long to stay at left tackle while Robinson adjusted, but he turns 30 in May and is coming off his second ACL tear in as many seasons. It's possible they even choose to cut bait entirely this spring, saving $8 million in cap space in the process. With Robinson looking far closer to a right tackle or even guard than a left tackle as a rookie, St. Louis may be forced to consider nabbing La'El Collins or Andrus Peat.

If not, their receiving corps is a mess. No wideout caught more than three touchdown passes in 2014. Kenny Britt was their most reliable receiver once Brian Quick went out with a season-ending injury. Austin was somehow seventh on the team in receiving. The quarterback situation did not help, but St. Louis has one of the two or three worst receiver depth charts in football. Louisville's DeVante Parker and West Virginia's Kevin White are distinct possibilities here.

One more crazy thought: Don't be surprised if the Rams make calls about trading up if Mariota or Winston starts slipping. Jeff Fisher needs a way to cool his seat heading into 2015. If he strikes out on the veteran quarterback market, pushing for a franchise face might be the next best option.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter. 

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