
Super Bowl 2015: Updated Odds, Fantasy Projections for Patriots vs. Seahawks
For fanatics still getting their fantasy fix in Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday, it's worth examining who the top playmakers figure to be when the Seattle Seahawks try to repeat as champions against the New England Patriots.
Dual-threat Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is always a threat to put up big points thanks to his unique improvisation and open-field vision. Wilson is part of a dynamic rushing attack that also features a running back in Marshawn Lynch who seems to put up big numbers no matter the competition.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle's physical Legion of Boom secondary has to deal with Tom Brady and the Patriots' precision-based short-passing game. Bruising ball-carrier LeGarrette Blount may be able to chip away at the Seahawks' lighter, quicker defensive line, depending on the game plan.
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It's more likely that New England coach Bill Belichick will trust his longtime QB in Brady to try to win the game. Since Seattle often plays from ahead, it stands to reason Brady will put it in the air often.
After a glance at the basic game information below are fantasy projections, along with analysis as to why certain players are expected to perform better than others on Super Bowl Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 1
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Odds: New England -1.5 (h/t OddsShark.com)
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
| NE | Tom Brady | 24/38/230 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 13.5 |
| SEA | Russell Wilson | 15/26/195 | 6/60 | 1/0 | 13.8 |
| NE | LeGarrette Blount | 10/31 | — | 1 | 9.1 |
| SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 27/160 | 3/24 | 2 | 30.4 |
| NE | Shane Vereen | 5/20 | 5/45 | 0 | 6.5 |
| NE | Julian Edelman | 10 | 85 | 1 | 14.5 |
| SEA | Doug Baldwin | 6 | 80 | 0 | 8 |
| NE | Brandon LaFell | 5 | 48 | 0 | 4.8 |
| SEA | Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 35 | 1 | 9.5 |
| NE | Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 70 | 1 | 13 |
| SEA | Luke Willson | 3 | 50 | 0 | 5 |
Super Bowl XLIX Fantasy Analysis
The absence of playmaking Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo is likely going to be most glaring when Seattle utilizes its unique, read-option ground game to gash New England early.
It is the Seahawks' identity to get physical at the point of attack. Lynch loves to pound the rock between the tackles, and the Pats' interior can be had by sealing off Vince Wilfork with double-teams.
Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus alluded to how New England might have a chance to load up versus the run since Percy Harvin is no longer in Seattle's receiving corps:
With Beast Mode activated, though, it may not matter how many defenders the Pats cram into the box:
Wilson explained how the option running plays are for Lynch most of the time anyway, via the team's official Twitter account:
But with how dangerous Lynch and Wilson are once they break off the mesh point, it's almost impossible to account for both of them. The mere threat of Wilson keeping the ball is enough to distract the defensive end, leaving Lynch with plenty of room to operate.
Even Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin—who should continue to be Wilson's go-to target in Glendale—knows what his team must do to claim victory, via NFL Media PR:
In the context of the fantasy projections, Wilson is expected to generate some explosive plays through the air and on the ground.
Most of that yardage should come from when the play breaks down, because New England doesn't have the personnel to simulate such a thing. It also neutralizes the perceived advantage the Pats have in the secondary over the underrated Seattle receivers.
The perception is that Lynch is the engine that drives the Seahawks offense. That's true to a degree, but for those who believe Brady will outperform Wilson from a fantasy standpoint, consider that in ESPN.com standard leagues this season, Wilson was outscored by only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck.
Such a fact may be a surprise to some, while Lynch's No. 3 ranking behind DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell is less of a shock.
As for Brady and Co., it's all about execution. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will find a way to feed it to his big playmakers in star tight end Rob Gronkowski and the ever-reliable Julian Edelman.
For all the obscure analysis Skip Bayless exudes on ESPN, he does have a point when discussing Brady as he tries to exploit every possible matchup advantage in pursuit of a fourth Super Bowl ring:
The Seahawks' strength is on the outside, and even the tightest coverage on Gronkowski over the middle can see him muscle the ball away. Edelman will likely go against nickel corner Jeremy Lane often in the slot, and he ought to beat him with relative regularity.
Seattle's press-coverage style won't allow for too many yards after the catch, leaving Brady's yards per attempt rather low. The jams will disrupt the timing of the plays, and for the two interceptions, one will come on a late-game force when the Patriots are trailing.
The success Lynch should have will force New England to abandon the run earlier than it'd like, opting to plug Shane Vereen into the lineup thanks to his pass-catching prowess.
That should help keep the game close, but look for Seattle to win and for Lynch, Wilson and the Seahawks' elite defensive backfield to be the driving forces behind bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the Emerald City.

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