Super Bowl Predictions 2015: Final Score and MVP Pick for Patriots vs. Seahawks

The mark of a great Super Bowl is when it's impossible to make a definitive prediction. This year's showdown between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks has the makings of a classic, with two of the great chess masters in Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll matching wits for the right to be called a champion. 

Anywhere you look, whether it's walking down the street or around the Internet, all of the predictions for this game are so close that there really is no favorite.

The Patriots are known for their offensive prowess, but you can't forget what Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner do for the defense. The Seahawks have one of the great defenses in recent history, yet the one player who has gotten all the deserved attention is Marshawn Lynch. 

All of the arguments for the Patriots and Seahawks to win this matchup Sunday are valid. Unfortunately, only one can walk away with a Lombardi Trophy. Here is how things are going to shake out, along with a final score and MVP prediction. 

Super Bowl Prediction

In addition to the wide variety of opinions from others about the Super Bowl, it's possible that you are wrestling with what will happen in this year's game. That's the dilemma I find myself in, though that's to be expected when you spend too much time actually thinking about sports. 

If there's any team with a formula to break through against Seattle's defense, it's New England. The Patriots are like a chameleon, adapting to their environment better than anyone in the NFL. If Belichick needs Tom Brady to throw 50 times, as he did three weeks ago against the Baltimore Ravens, that's what he will do. 

When Belichick wants to make New England a power-running team, as he did in the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts, LeGarrette Blount will carry the ball 30 times. 

Belichick's ability to play mind games better than anyone should not come as a surprise based on where the coach came from, as Jenny Vrentas of TheMMQB.com profiled the kinds of books he grew up on as a child and football coach:

"

Belichick learned the game through Steve [Belichick, his father], who coached here for 33 years and is now buried on the Naval Academy grounds. After Bill began his own coaching career—he started as a special assistant for Baltimore Colts head coach Ted Marchibroda in 1975, doing defensive breakdowns—he added to his father’s book collection. 

"

As great of a coach as Belichick is, it wouldn't matter if he didn't have talented players to execute his game plans. Brady may be battling a cold and the media over Deflategate, but it's hard to dispute the accomplishments of the Patriots quarterback. 

Even when people were predicting the end of his career early this season, Brady stuck with the plan and turned in another masterful season, with over 4,000 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

It also helps to have a massive monster in the middle of the field like Rob Gronkowski. Despite his size and strength, Carroll has acknowledged this week that he believes his defense has the formula to stop the All-Pro tight end, via Chris Wesseling of NFL.com:

"

"He really has all of the elements that you're looking for from a big-time tight end," Carroll said, "every aspect of it.'

Carroll believes the Seahawks match up well with Gronkowski because outside linebackers K.J. Wright and Bruce Irvin are "pretty tall and long" and Kam Chancellor is "about as big a strong safety as you can find."

"

Gronkowski is the only player in New England's passing game who can break through Seattle's secondary with his strength, so it's easy to see why the Seahawks want to zone in on him. 

Blount is an interesting case study, because the Patriots had no running game against the Ravens, with 14 yards on 13 carries. He came back strong with 148 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, but Seattle's defensive front is obviously much closer to what Baltimore has. 

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

As a result, it seems reasonable to expect Belichick will look to throw more and get his short passing game going early to serve as a de facto running game. Assuming that's the case, Brady seems like the most likely MVP candidate from the Patriots. 

On the Seattle side, there's no drama in the MVP discussion on offense. Everything works through Lynch's ability to run the ball and make people miss. 

The Patriots certainly understand what Lynch is capable of, as defensive tackle Vince Wilfork said Seattle's running back is the best in the league, via Wesseling of NFL.com.

"It seems like he's been getting better and better," Wilfork said. "The more and more he plays the game, it seems like he kicks it to another gear. And that's the sign of a great football player. He's hands down the best back in the game because he can hurt you anytime he has the ball in his hands."

Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk broke down Lynch's numbers and found that he was one of the best playoff running backs in history:

"

But that game [against the New Orleans Saints in 2011], in which Lynch carried 19 times for 131 yards, was far from Lynch’s only big postseason game. From that postseason debut through his 157-yard day against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, Lynch has topped 100 yards in the playoffs five times, and topped 130 yards four times. Only former Broncos running back Terrell Davis, with five 130-yard playoff games, has reached 130 yards in the postseason more often than Lynch.

"

Even though Wilson gets some deserved credit for the way he handles the offense and creates plays with his legs, the Seahawks clearly want to run the ball first and foremost. Lynch is the glue that makes everything else go, whether it's in play-action passing or zone-read options when Wilson keeps the ball. 

There's certainly a lot of defensive talent on display in this game. Revis and Richard Sherman might be the two best cornerbacks in the league. Brandon Browner and Byron Maxwell could be No. 1 cornerbacks on a lot of NFL teams. Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are intimidating safeties. 

As great as all those stars are, though, there have only been nine defensive players to win a Super Bowl MVP award. Malcolm Smith did break the 10-year run of offensive players winning the honor last year for Seattle, but it took a 69-yard interception return for a touchdown to do it. 

The theory of Occam's Razor says that the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions is likely the best one to make. Since a defensive player has to have something spectacular happen to win, going with an offensive player makes more sense. 

Now, the only question is which team will win to produce an MVP.

The Seahawks won a game against the Green Bay Packers in which their starting quarterback completed 48.3 percent of his passes with four interceptions. It's certainly possible Wilson plays that badly again, but it's not likely. Even if he's just average in this game, that defense has shown the ability to shut down Aaron Rodgers. Brady is still great, but he isn't at Rodgers' level anymore. 

New England's run defense hasn't been good in the playoffs. Justin Forsett torched it for 129 yards on 24 carries, while the Colts had a solid 83 yards on 19 carries before they got behind too far and had to keep throwing the ball. 

When the matchup was first set, New England was my pick. But after I went over everything in the last 10 days, it's hard not to like Seattle in this spot. The defense is doing things that haven't been done in a long time, and Lynch is going to beat you eventually. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 21

Super Bowl MVP: Marshawn Lynch