
What Would a Marcus Mariota Trade Look Like for the Philadelphia Eagles?
Marcus Mariota has been an assumed target of the Philadelphia Eagles ever since Chip Kelly took over as head coach two seasons ago. And while they likely aren't in a position to draft Mariota with the 20th selection, NJ.com's Mark Eckel recently reported that Kelly would attempt to trade up for his former quarterback.
Various media outlets have discussed the merits of trading up for Mariota, including Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon, who believes the team would be "insane" to make the move.
Putting any feelings about the possible trade aside, let's simply take a look at what the trade might look like.
The easiest way to forecast a possible trade scenario is to look at recent examples. Fortunately, within the past few years we've seen multiple draft-pick trades executed with the intention of acquiring highly regarded quarterbacks.
The most memorable trade occurred in 2012, when the Redskins mortgaged their future to move up for Robert Griffin III. Washington sent its 2012 first- and second-round picks to St. Louis, along with its 2013 and 2014 first-round picks.
The RG3 trade helps us analyze the Eagles scenario only if they intend to trade into the top three to acquire Mariota.
The Redskins gave up three first-round selections to move up four spots in the draft order. So if the Eagles are interested in jumping over teams such as the Jets (who own the sixth pick), the Titans (second pick) or Jaguars (third), it might demand a similar haul.
Another factor that needs to be considered in this example is the fact that the Rams were pitting the Browns and Redskins against each other in a bidding war specifically for Griffin. As one of the most highly regarded quarterback prospects to enter the draft in recent years, the price tag associated with this pick reached historic levels.
A team such as the Jaguars will probably have a harder time dragging multiple teams into a costly bidding war prior for Mariota, who is a highly regarded prospect but still one with many flaws.
Regardless of the final asking price, the Eagles do have their full arsenal of early draft picks for the next two years intact, so a blockbuster trade from No. 20 to No. 2 is feasible.
Potential Trade No. 1
Eagles receive: No. 3 overall pick
Jaguars receive: first-, second- and fourth-round picks in 2015; first- and third-round picks in 2016
The next, and probably more reasonable trade, to consider is the trade between the Browns and Falcons for Julio Jones in 2011.
"#Browns got No. 27 (1st round), No. 59 (2nd rd.), No. 124 (4th rd.) from #Falcons in exchange for No. 6 overall. Also got 1st & 4th in 2012.
— Nate Ulrich (@NateUlrichABJ) April 29, 2011"
The Jones trade is the best recent example of the type of trade the Eagles would be looking for if they're interested in trading up for Mariota.
The asking price from the Titans or Buccaneers to move all the way up for the first or second picks might be too much, as we've already established. But a team in rebuilding mode (such as the Jets, who own this year's sixth pick) may be willing to discuss a blockbuster trade much like the Browns were in 2011.
The Eagles are in excellent position to pull off this type of trade. They own their all of their 2015 and 2016 draft picks, in addition to owning the 49ers' fourth-round pick (via the Bills) from the Bryce Brown trade last offseason.
If Chip Kelly and the Eagles were willing to sacrifice a similar package of picks, the Jets or another team in that range would certainly be willing to consider the offer.
Potential Trade No. 2
Eagles receive: No. 6 overall pick
Jets receive: first-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2015; first- and third-round picks in 2015
The third possibility the Eagles have is to send players in addition to picks.
Projecting this type of trade gets complicated because it's impossible to know just how each side values the players, or even which players might be discussed.
In 2009, the Jets and Browns completed this type of draft-day trade. The Browns sent the fifth overall selection (Mark Sanchez) to the Jets in exchange for the 17th and 52nd picks and Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abram Elam.
Based on the original trade value chart, the fifth pick is worth 1,700 points, while the 17th and 52nd picks add up to only 1,330 points. The difference of 370 points is the equivalent of the 53rd pick, meaning the Browns valued the combination of Coleman, Ratliff and Elam as a mid-second-round selection.
Assuming the Eagles can find a trade partner interested in discussing players and picks, we can assume they would need to send someone of at least second-round value in addition to their first- and second-round selections.
Nick Foles would be expendable if the Eagles were moving up for Mariota and could be viewed by some teams as a second-round value. LeSean McCoy's name has also been thrown around by those speculating trade scenarios, but would a rebuilding team want a 27-year-old running back?
The Eagles probably have enough to put together a viable offer involving players, but then they have to find a trading partner interested in those pieces.
Potential Trade No. 3
Eagles receive: No. 6 overall pick
Jets receive: Nick Foles, first-, third- and fifth-round picks in 2015
In each of these scenarios, the Eagles give up an awful lot. There are no plausible deals in which the Eagles move up for Mariota and keep the majority of their 2015 and 2016 drafts intact.
But if Kelly covets Mariota and views him as the guy who can carry them over the top and to multiple division titles and possible championships in the coming years, then all of these scenarios will be discussed within the walls of the Eagles' facilities in the coming months.
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