Super Bowl 2015: MVP Favorites and Predictions for Patriots vs. Seahawks
About one year ago, Seattle Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith leaped for a jump ball thrown by Peyton Manning and raced back for a touchdown to earn his place in history.
While he botched the dunk over the goal post, Smith became the first defensive player since Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Dexter Jackson in Super Bowl XXXVII to win Super Bowl MVP.
Those same Seahawks are back in the big game once again for a shot at the dynasty label.
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When it comes to the MVP award, a contest that features names such as Smith, Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis figures to give another defender a good chance at the hardware.
Despite the rarity of defenders taking home the prize, Las Vegas gives those involved a decent chance.
Super Bowl Info and Odds
| Sunday, Feb. 1 | New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks | 6:30 p.m. | NBC | NE -1.5 | 47.5 | 27-24 SEA |
Betting info via Odds Shark as of Saturday, Jan. 24 at 10 a.m. ET.
2015 Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Tom Brady | 8-5 |
| Russell Wilson | 7-2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4-1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 9-1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 12-1 |
| Julian Edelman | 25-1 |
| Darrelle Revis | 33-1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 33-1 |
| Kam Chancellor | 33-1 |
| Richard Sherman | 33-1 |
| Earl Thomas | 40-1 |
| Bobby Wagner | 50-1 |
| Jamie Collins | 50-1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 50-1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 66-1 |
| Shane Vereen | 66-1 |
| Danny Amendola | 75-1 |
| K.J. Wright | 75-1 |
| Byron Maxwell | 100-1 |
| Devin McCourty | 100-1 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 100-1 |
| Luke Willson | 100-1 |
| Malcolm Smith | 100-1 |
| Patrick Chung | 100-1 |
| Rob Ninkovich | 100-1 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 100-1 |
| Steven Hauschka | 100-1 |
| Field | 25-1 |
MVP Odds via Odds Shark as of Saturday, Jan. 24 at 10 a.m. ET.
The Case for Marshawn Lynch
As worthy as defenders may be, it will be difficult for voters to ignore some of the top offensive stars for the second year in a row.
Marshawn Lynch might lead the way in this regard—if not for his bruising runs, then for his entertaining behavior.
Lynch, also known as Beast Mode, also known as the guy prone to fits of Skittles-induced rage, faces a tall task against New England's ninth-ranked run defense. Truthfully, though, Lynch has been in postseason form since the end of November:
| at SF | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 0 |
| at PHI | 23 | 86 | 3.7 | 0 |
| vs. SF | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| at ARI | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 2 |
| vs. STL | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| vs. CAR | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| vs. GB | 25 | 157 | 6.3 | 1 |
New England understands—no, respects this. Star defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, who's been around the block a few times, goes as far as to say Lynch is the best in the game, via NFL.com's Chris Wesseling:
"It seems like he's been getting better and better. The more and more he plays the game, it seems like he kicks it to another gear. And that's the sign of a great football player. He's hands down the best back in the game because he can hurt you anytime he has the ball in his hands.
"
The numbers back up Wilfork's points. Keep in mind all of the opponents on the above table, the lone exception being Green Bay, rank in the top half of the league against the rush.
It is important to note that the New England defense is only a couple games removed from allowing Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett to gain 129 yards on 24 carries. If Lynch can get going north of five yards per carry as well, he might just take home the award, much to the chagrin of interviewers everywhere.
The Case for LeGarrette Blount
Try not to forget about LeGarrette Blount in the grand scheme of things.
An afterthought in Pittsburgh before leaving the sideline early and being let go, Blount predictably joined the Patriots and has been a situational powerhouse ever since.
In a slugfest with an elite Detroit defense back in November, Blount ran wild for 78 yards and two scores. In an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field in the AFC Championship Game, head coach Bill Belichick once again unleashed Blount, this time resulting in 148 yards and three touchdowns.
Belichick may want to fight fire with fire to counteract Lynch, so look for Blount to be a focal point of the offense once again.
As Pro Football on ESPN points out, Blount is the AFC version of Lynch:
The Seahawks may rank third against the rush, but cracks were obvious against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Eddie Lacy rushed 21 times for 73 yards, and James Starks found 44 on five opportunities.
With Seattle's defense focused on Tom Brady, much as it was Aaron Rodgers, Blount will have room to go to work.
If he even sniffs his title-game production, an MVP award will be in order.
Prediction
When it comes right down to it, running backs are at as big of a disadvantage for MVP as defenders thanks to the importance and spotlight quarterbacks occupy.
This time around, do not expect Russell Wilson to miss out on the award.
Wilson posted the worst game of his career against the Packers—up until when it mattered most. His team down 16 points, he hit on two critical throws late and then struck a dime down the field in overtime to send the Seahawks back to the Super Bowl:
There is something about momentum gained in those waning moments that is difficult to define. Forget his four interceptions. Forget the notion that his defense carries him.
Wilson makes plays when it matters in the most important of situations. He next will attack a New England secondary that ranks 17th against the pass and do so knowing full well that the unit will focus on Lynch.
Last year, Wilson quietly hummed to an 18-of-25 mark for 206 yards and two scores. Eight points in the opening frame by way of a safety and a couple of field goals as the two sides felt each other out put him in cruise control.
This time does not figure to be as easy. But when it matters, Wilson will once again rise to the occasion. This time he will be impossible to shove out of the spotlight.
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.
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