6 NBA Teams Most Likely to Hold Fire Sale Ahead of 2015 Trade Deadline
Any and all NBA buyers please make note: Some trade-deadline fire sales could be on the way.
Trade season has been in full swing for a while now, and the rumor mill has shown no signs of slowing. Activity could inevitably peter out since teams are making splashy moves earlier—see: Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks—but this is the time when speculation reaches fever pitch.
Most teams are hitting turning points. They know where they stand by now. Armed with this information, they subsequently know whether they're buyers or sellers as the Feb. 19 trade deadline nears. We're after those most likely to enter fire-sale mode.
These are usually teams coming to grips with this season's pointlessness: Squads that thought they would contend for a playoff spot, but they aren't. Franchises that were pegged for conference contention, but instead they find themselves on the lottery brink. Clubs that haven't yet stripped the roster clean, but they have every incentive to do so.
In one instance, there's a team that's long been consigned to fire-sale territory and has yet to embrace it. Mostly, though, this a comprehensive assessment of teams that, under the circumstances, would be wise to blow their roster up, piece by piece, trade by trade.
Here's to potential midseason roster-razings!
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Here we have the rare team that already dwells at the very bottom, yet it still has plenty of assets to trade.
At 7-34, the Minnesota Timberwolves have the league's second-worst record. They rank in the bottom five of both offensive and defensive efficiency, with injuries having squashed the possibility they would play above their heads without Kevin Love.
Losing is winning at this point in Minnesota. The more losses the Timberwolves rack up, the more they ensure their 2015 first-round pick won't be headed to Boston (via Phoenix).
Although they're certainly losing enough now, Nikola Pekovic is healthy again, and Kevin Martin is nearing a return, per Fox Sports North's Phil Ervin. Veterans, such as these players, cut into the playing time of young guns and future fixtures Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng, among others.
It makes the sense for coach-president Flip Saunders to sever those ties, if only so he removes any temptation there is to play high-paid veterans. Marc Stein of ESPN.com says the team is "willing to move Thaddeus Young," who has the option of becoming a free agent this summer, so they may already be heading in this direction.
Moving seasoned impact players gives the Timberwolves a chance to stockpile draft picks and developing talent, which, in turn, improves the outlook of an already-promising rebuild. Snaring a first-rounder for any one of Martin, Pekovic and Young is hardly out of the question; each of them can be of use to teams with immediate title or playoff aspirations.
Years away from being one of those squads themselves, the Timberwolves would do well to sell off their most experienced assets, provided it means bringing back something or someone of eventual value in return.
Denver Nuggets
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If anyone out there—ladies, gentleman, monosyllabic space travelers (Vin Diesel)—can explain what in the h-e-double hockey sticks the Denver Nuggets are building, that would be fantastic.
Good luck trying to find a more confusing team, because there isn't one. The Nuggets are flush with talent, much of it overlapping and redundant. But they're also light on wins and direction. They're seven games outside the Western Conference playoff picture and darting toward their second consecutive sub-40-win season for the first time in 10-plus years.
The time to hold a fire sale, then, isn't near. It's here. It's been here, taunting general manager Tim Connelly, begging him to break out the clearance stickers Masai Ujiri left behind.
Trading Timofey Mozgov was a good start. The Nuggets nabbed two first-rounders from the Cavaliers for his services, and they should keep that draft-pick caravan rolling.
Wilson Chandler has been linked to every team from every planet in our solar system, plus Pluto. Arron Afflalo, while having seen his scoring and three-point percentage plummet since leaving Orlando, is still considered a valuable three-and-D guy. Though he can hit free agency this summer, he's easily worth something substantial to someone.
J.J Hickson can still rebound outside Denver, and JaVale McGee is big and long. There should be takers for them. Even Danilo Gallinari, whose injury timetables are the most irrelevant of all time, should garner interest.
What the Nuggets shouldn't be doing is targeting pricey players with horrendous health bills—say, those like Brook Lopez, who they're apparently after, per The Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey. They've evaded a real rebuild for almost four years. They cannot avoid it any longer.
Fire up that trade machine, Mr. Connelly.
Brooklyn Nets
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Do not confuse this fire sale with the second one Brooklyn Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov is holding on the side.
The Russian billionaire is still listening to offers for the franchise, according to the New York Daily News' Mitch Abramson. With Brooklyn capped out and going nowhere fast, nothing would help that process like a good old-fashion, flagrant roster-razing—the same one the Nets have flirted with for some time and desperately need now.
"Today, they're in worse shape than the Brooklyn Queens Expressway at rush hour," NBA.com's Shaun Powell writes. "Their core players have gone stale, their Draft future has been spent and their desire to spend big money is drying up."
Deals that would have landed Deron Williams with the Sacramento Kings and Lopez with the Oklahoma City Thunder are dead for the moment, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. But this is not where the Nets' bulldozing efforts end. It can't be.
Williams is still on the sidelines tending to yet another injury; Mirza Teletovic is done for the season after blood clots were found in his lungs, according to ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo; Lopez's name is tossed around the rumor mill like a Nerf Vortex; and the Nets are on the verge of forfeiting the Eastern Conference's final postseason spot.
There's little point keeping this team together even if it clinches a playoff berth. A postseason appearance merely earns them a first-round sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. Selling off their pricey core—which, as of now, will cost them another $75 million-plus next season, assuming Lopez picks up his player option—would be more rewarding.
Not to say Brooklyn is overwhelmed with options. There's a reason those other deals fell apart: insufficient returns.
But the tax-tamped Nets cannot be fussy. The asset ship has sailed. Financial flexibility is the ceiling on any Nets trades, and for a pick-barren squad capped to the teeth through next season, that will have to do.
Miami Heat
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Pat Riley is trying to maintain flexibility for summer 2016, when he plans on building another Big Three, according to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher. Based on the Heat's current core, however, this is a flimsy interpretation of "Big Three."
Dwyane Wade will be pushing 35 when the 2016-17 season begins, while Chris Bosh will be on the wrong side of 32. Pitching outside superstars on an aging supporting cast won't get the Heat far.
And neither will standing pat.
The Heat are clinging to seventh place in the Eastern Conference and are a Charlotte Hornets and/or Detroit Pistons surge away from falling out of the picture entirely. They also rank 20th and 21st, respectively, in offensive and defensive efficiency. And with next to no depth on the roster, hoping they suddenly improve is futile.
Rather than perpetuate mediocrity, the Heat have an opportunity to clean house. Memphis inquired about Deng's availability prior to trading for Green, per Stein. If he can help the team land a first-rounder or legitimate prospect, Riley should by all means entertain offers.
Asking the Heat to trade Wade would be ambitious. But let's be real for a minute: Bosh should not be off-limits. He hasn't effectively adjusted his game to that of a featured scorer, isn't carrying the Heat to home-court advantage and continues to underachieve for a max-contract megastar.
In turn, let's say the Thunder—who have, again, been hot on Lopez's trail—are slinging Steven Adams, Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and Kendrick Perkins' expiring deal for Bosh. Maybe they're even offering a 2019 first-rounder or some imminent second-rounders. Should the Heat say no?
Absolutely not. Moving Bosh would allow them to begin the process of deconstructing their roster for real. They could unload Deng and try to save money by trading others. Then, by the time 2016 rolls around, they'll be free of Bosh's deal and financially able to make an even bigger splash.
To wit: It's not happening. But a partial fire sale, in which the Heat auction off Deng and anyone who isn't Wade or Bosh, should not be out of the question. Not with this team stuck in the worst place of all: the middle.
New Orleans Pelicans
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Man, it seems like only a few weeks ago the New Orleans Pelicans were shaping up to be buyers. Oh, that's right. They totally were.
Treading water in the Western Conference, watching the superhuman Anthony Davis mutilate rival defenses and fielding a ninth-ranked offense, the Pelicans had every reason to buy.
Then Jrue Holiday went down. The team announced he's out two to four weeks with a stress reaction in his right leg, the ramifications of which are dire. As Bleacher Report's Thomas Duffy drives home:
"Take the second-best player off any team in the league and it’ll hurt. In the Pelicans’ case, this injury is especially painful because their point guard position is about as deep as a Lil Wayne song. ...
The road to the playoffs was already going to be a bumpy one. Now the pavement is littered with shards of glass, black ice and herds of wild animals.
OKC, currently just one game ahead of the Pelicans, is very likely going to distance itself from them in the next two to four weeks.
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Assuming Jimmer Fredette or Nate Wolters doesn't make that quantum, Chris Paul leap, the Pelicans are done. Worse still, they have no first-round pick. They sent this year's selection to Houston as part of the Omer Asik trade. It's protected for picks No. 1-3 and 20-30, so barring a miracle, it's gone.
Dumping contractual dead weight in favor of cap space and picks would be a worthwhile undertaking now.
Ridding the books of Tyreke Evans', Eric Gordon's and maybe even Holiday's pacts are an ideal aim. With Asik coming off the books this season, flipping any or all of those three—preferably Gordon and Evans—for expiring deals would give the Pelicans ample cap room with which to play during free agency.
Envisioning this is the easy part, though. Actually creating the requisite flexibility may prove impossible. Gordon is immovable on his own, and there's no telling if pairing him with Holiday or Evans changes that.
Still, the Pelicans should at least try, otherwise this season will go down as yet another lost cause.
Phoenix Suns
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This theoretical fire sale comes with a caveat.
Nothing suggests the Phoenix Suns are prepared to start peddling key players up and down the rumor mill. Firmly planted within the Western Conference's brain-boggling playoff race and having just acquired Brandan Wright, they look more like buyers.
And, for the moment, they are. The Suns hold a three-game lead over the Thunder for eighth place with 38 contests to play. They are going for it. That much is clear. But the Feb. 19 trade deadline isn't here yet. A lot can happen between now and then.
Each of their next seven games comes against winning squads, and they're 9-11 when facing above-.500 teams. If that below-board trend holds, they will emerge from this stretch outside the playoff picture, behind the Thunder.
Instead of playing catch-up, a game they would likely lose, they'll have cause to undergo asset consolidation—something sources told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck the Suns would consider.
Both Goran Dragic and Gerald Green are streaking toward free agency, and Miles Plumlee is readily available, according to Stein. Combining those three, along with some of their many other assets—Los Angeles Lakers' protected first-rounder, Archie Goodwin, etc.—could put them on the receiving end of a blockbuster acquisition.
Eighth place isn't the goal, remember. If this core is struggling to make the playoffs now, that won't abruptly change. This season, fringe playoff contention, is their ceiling.
"We have a great stretch of games coming up right here that are gonna be tough," head coach Jeff Hornacek said, via Suns.com Greg Esposito. "If we get through these and win these, it’s only going to do more to boost our confidence. They’re ready to make this push.”
Surviving this latest gauntlet would go a long way in convincing the Suns to stay the course. But should they stumble and ultimately fall, the prospect of roster-restructuring looms large.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com cand are accurate as of games played Jan. 22, 2015 unless otherwise cited. Salary information via HoopsHype. Draft pick information from RealGM.
