Will Assistant Coaching Changes Forge New Powers in the AFC North?
Coaching changes in the NFL happen for more reasons than just poor performance. A good year can draw a coach away from his team in hopes of replicating that success elsewhere. Others resign or retire, looking for a change.
All of these things befell the AFC North after the 2014 season wrapped, with three of four teams making changes at the coordinator or assistant coaching levels. Though no team turned over its head coach, these assistant and coordinator shifts could in turn shift the balance of power in the division.
Let's take a look at all the teams in the division and how their respective new coaching faces (or lack thereof, in the case of the Cincinnati Bengals) will affect the upcoming 2015 season.
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Cleveland Browns
For the third straight year of the Jimmy Haslam ownership regime, the Cleveland Browns made changes to the coaching staff when the season ended, despite a good-for-them seven-win year.
Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains are out; former Oakland Raiders quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo is now the coordinator, with the quarterbacks coach still to be determined. The wide receivers coach position is also vacant.
Head coach Mike Pettine, in his introduction of DeFilippo to the media on Thursday, said, via Daryl Ruiter of 92.3 The Fan, that aside from filling those two remaining vacancies, no other coaching changes will be made. He also noted that Shanahan left simply because he didn't want to be with the Browns any longer.
DeFilippo has NFL experience, though it is limited. He served, as noted, as the Raiders quarterbacks coach in two separate stints, with two years as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at San Jose State in between. He was also assistant quarterbacks coach with the New York Jets, helping to teach then-starter Mark Sanchez, which is where he and Pettine first crossed paths.
Like Shanahan before him, DeFilippo runs a West Coast-style offense. But as Pettine has stressed over the course of his year as head coach—and as Shanahan stressed during his tenure—so did DeFilippo: "This isn't going to be my offense or 'so and so's' offense. This is going to be the Cleveland Browns' offense. Whatever that is to get our best players the football, it's going to be very flexible."
What can be expected are few changes in terms of what worked. DeFilippo made that clear in his introductory press conference. The zone-blocking scheme in the run game will remain.
The problem, though, is that little the Browns did on offense worked in 2014, especially once center Alex Mack suffered a season-ending broken leg in October. The Browns finished the season 23rd in offensive yards per game at 324.6, 16th in rushing yards at 107.5, 20th in passing yards per game at 217.1 and 27th in points per game at 18.7.
None of the three quarterbacks—Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw—posted completion percentages above 55.3 on the season or a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio. No running back reached 700 yards, and no receiver could eclipse 900.
Before the Browns can turn the offense around, they need a healthy Mack. Oh, and they also need a quarterback—a quarterback who, according to DeFilippo (and echoing Pettine's comments to close the season), may not be in the building at present.
Hoyer is an unrestricted free agent. Manziel, a 2014 first-round draft pick, would appear to have the advantage given DeFilippo's experience working with younger quarterbacks, but the coaching staff doesn't appear to be thrilled with the prospect of starting Manziel in 2015.
Shaw, undrafted in 2014, could hold the most promise of the three, but that may be because he has the smallest sample size—one game—of the trio who played in 2014. Pettine's determination that the Browns "leave no stone unturned" in their search for a quarterback seems to be the case.
Until that quarterback is found, the Browns' ability to turn around their fortunes is still to be determined. DeFilippo might be the perfect man for the job—Cleveland pursued him in its 2014 search for a coordinator. But if the Browns find themselves without the proper quarterback again, the odds of their being a double-digit win team in 2015 are as slim as ever.
It was a good sign that the Browns could move the ball with a healthy Mack helping the run game and the run game taking the pressure off Hoyer. If that can be replicated in 2015 with a higher-caliber or better-coached quarterback, the Browns could find themselves in the seven-to-nine win area again.
But the Browns don't just have their AFC North rivals—who all reached the playoffs in 2014—to deal with. There is also the matter of the AFC and NFC West teams also being on the schedule. All eight will be significant tests of the new offense.
Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the Browns making enough leaps forward on offense to overcome not just the other three teams in the AFC North, but also the difficult out-of-division opponents on the docket for 2015. DeFilippo and his staff could make Cleveland's offense better but potentially not good enough to turn the Browns into the division's top team.
Baltimore Ravens
Just one day after the Baltimore Ravens were eliminated in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak issued a statement saying that he was not interested in head coaching vacancies and was opting to stay in Baltimore because the Ravens "are building something great."
That statement, however, only applied to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, both whom wanted to speak with Kubiak about their respective head coaching vacancies. It did not ultimately apply to the Denver Broncos, who parted ways with head coach John Fox one day after Kubiak released his statement.
By the end of the week, Kubiak had taken the Broncos job, leaving the Ravens having to find their fourth offensive coordinator since 2012. That vacancy was quickly filled by former Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman. The Ravens also hired Marty Mornhinweg as quarterbacks coach, with Rick Dennison also leaving Baltimore for Denver. Tight ends coach Brian Pariani also left to join Kubiak with the Broncos.
The Ravens had a stellar 2014 season from an offensive standpoint, and Kubiak had much to do with that. The Ravens rushed for 2,091 yards, up from their franchise low of 1,328 in 2013. Quarterback Joe Flacco had the best season of his career, posting up personal bests in passing yards (3,986) and touchdowns (27) while taking a career-low 19 sacks and throwing just 12 interceptions.
Though Kubiak can certainly take much of the credit for the run game's improvement, thanks to his identification of diamond-in-the-rough rusher Justin Forsett, who ended the year with the fifth most rushing yards in the league, it wasn't all Kubiak's magic touch that turned Baltimore's offense around.
A lot of that fell to the offensive line, which was disappointing and injury-riddled in 2013, leading not only to Baltimore's low rushing output, but also Flacco's career highs in interceptions (22) and sacks (48). Flacco had to throw the ball more often than the Ravens would have liked because they could not run the ball behind such a poor line. And that poor line left Flacco exposed to opposing pass-rushers.
With continued stability on the line, both the run game and Flacco should continue to perform at a high level under Trestman. Trestman's system is West Coast-based, like Kubiak's, and Trestman has a similar laid-back quality to him as his predecessor. There should be a near-seamless transition from one system to the next.
The only question is personnel. Forsett is an unrestricted free agent and could ultimately end up in Denver with Kubiak. The Ravens also need to decide on the future of another free agent, wide receiver Torrey Smith. Though Smith is far from being a No. 1 receiver in Baltimore, he did have a career high in touchdowns in 2014 with 11.
Still, Trestman is as committed to a run-pass balance as Kubiak and has even greater interest in having his running backs catch the ball. In Chicago in 2014, Bears running back Matt Forte carried the ball 266 times. Forsett carried 235 times. But he was also targeted in the passing game 130 times, with 102 catches totaling 808 yards and four scores. His 771 yards after the catch led the team.
| Forsett | 235 | 1,266 | 5.4 | 8 | 56 | 59 | 44 | 236 | 0 | 299 |
| Forte | 266 | 1,038 | 3.9 | 6 | 63 | 130 | 102 | 808 | 4 | 771 |
In contrast, Forsett only saw 59 targets in 2014, with 44 receptions for 236 yards, zero receiving touchdowns and 299 yards after the catch. Whether the Ravens retain Forsett, turn to a younger player like Lorenzo Taliaferro or pick up another running back to be their starter in 2015, expect that player to see increased passing targets over what Forsett saw in 2014.
That should actually help Flacco even further. But the Ravens offense cannot survive on running back checkdowns alone. They will need more playmaking receivers and to get tight end Dennis Pitta back healthy in order for Flacco to surpass his career 2014 year.
The transition from Kubiak to Trestman shouldn't negatively affect Baltimore's offense. As long as the offensive line can stay intact and the run game continues to be featured heavily, the Ravens should remain contenders for another season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers, for better and for worse, are upheld as beacons of consistency in an ever-changing NFL. That's why it came as a surprise when longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau announced his resignation from the position. Though it was a given that linebackers coach Keith Butler would eventually succeed LeBeau, it wasn't expected it would come in 2015.
The shift from LeBeau to Butler shouldn't bring forth many significant changes to the scheme. LeBeau had been with the Steelers since 2004, while Butler joined the staff the year prior. The team will still be primarily 3-4 focused, though like all NFL defenses will primarily operate out of the nickel—five defensive backs—that could also include 4-3 looks.
Steelers Depot's Matthew Marczi does note that one thing could change—the usage of outside linebackers in coverage. He noted that the Steelers, under LeBeau, had put outside linebackers such as James Harrison, Jason Worilds and Jarvis Jones on 25 to 30 percent of passing downs rather than aggressively rushing the passer. As such, the Steelers notched just 33 team sacks in 2014, ranking them 26th.
However, Butler has more to concern himself with than just increasing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. He also has to deal with an aging secondary that will require a nearly complete rebuild in this offseason.
Cornerback Ike Taylor is a free agent and not expected to return. Safety Troy Polamalu's future is still up in the air. Fellow safety Mike Mitchell can hit hard but misses too many tackles. And the Steelers would be wise to find someone more promising than Cortez Allen or even William Gay at cornerback.
Pittsburgh's defense was middle-of-the-road in yards allowed in 2014 with 350.2. It allowed under 100 rushing yards per game on average but gave up 253.1 passing yards per game. It ranked 21st in points per game allowed at 23.4 and gave up a touchdown on 54.72 percent of opponents' red-zone appearances.
| Opp. YPG | 350.2 | 17th |
| Opp. Rush YPG | 97.1 | 6th |
| Opp. Pass YPG | 253.1 | 25th |
| Opp. PPG | 23.4 | 21st |
| Opp. RZ TD% | 54.72% | 19th |
The defense also gave up 50 passing plays that went 20 or more yards and 15 of 40 or more. And though opposing offenses were throwing so heavily against the Steelers with notable success, Pittsburgh's defense totaled just 11 interceptions in 2014.
Butler's approach should mimic LeBeau's but also be imbued with some of his own concepts. But whether that will be a success will depend on personnel, where so much is still to be ironed out.
There are a lot of young players on defense the Steelers will have to groom in live-game situations, such as defensive end Stephon Tuitt, the aforementioned Jones, linebacker Ryan Shazier and nose tackle Daniel McCullers. Other contributors will have to come from the 2015 draft.
The Steelers must draft rookies who are ready to play because their thin defensive ranks do not afford them the luxury of young players learning from the bench as it did for much of LeBeau's tenure.
Butler's success in his first year as the Steelers defensive coordinator will hinge on head coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Kevin Colbert making wise personnel decisions in both free agency and the draft.
While it helps to know that the Steelers went 11-5 and won the AFC North even with a passing defense that was a liability, that may not be the case with a tougher schedule in 2015 and the likelihood of many new faces in the starting lineup. The Steelers proved in 2014 that their offense can carry them all the way to the postseason, but that's hard to sustain.
It could be a year of transition ahead for the Steelers; how they weather it will determine if they will again be in the running for the divisional title.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals, who saw no coaching changes, worked hard to keep defensive backs coach Vance Joseph within the organization, blocking him from meeting with at least the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers about their vacant defensive coordinator positions.
There were also rumblings that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson could garner attention for other coaching vacancies, but that did not come to fruition.
This is a far cry from the Bengals' 2014 offseason, which saw both defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden leave for head coaching jobs in Minnesota and Washington respectively. The Bengals offense and defense both significantly changed because of these moves, most notably the defense, which lacked Zimmer's fire under new coordinator Paul Guenther.
Though the Bengals do not have any coaching changes to adapt to this year, that doesn't mean they have no changes or improvements to make. There is the matter of the health of wide receiver Marvin Jones and tight end Tyler Eifert, whose seasons ended on injured reserve. There is the ever-present Andy Dalton question: Will he ever be good enough to lead the Bengals to a playoff win, let alone a Super Bowl?
And there's that disappointing defense, which totaled just 20 sacks in the regular season, the fewest in the NFL.
Guenther pulled few punches when discussing his defensive line to close out the year, calling defensive tackle Geno Atkins (3.0 sacks) "just a guy," per Cincinnati.com's Paul Dehner Jr., and adding, "We got to improve the younger players in the rush and we have to look in the draft or free agency to get some fresh talent in here, for sure. We need to infuse the D-line because we've got to get better at rushing the passer—period."
The Bengals have few positional needs on either side of the ball beyond the defensive line, so expect the vast majority of their salary-cap space—which should be around $30 million—and their draft picks to be spent on improving it.
The Bengals spent both the 2012 and 2013 seasons being one of the most complete teams in the NFL. They had an experienced secondary, a strong pass rush, an effective run game and a passing offense that, while helmed by the often-erratic Dalton, featured enough weapons to be truly dangerous to opposing defenses.
They still possess most of these assets, except for the pass rush. And if the Bengals are going to return to being the AFC North's premiere franchise, they must find players who can double their sack total. Just as this is a pass-first NFL, the AFC North too is becoming increasingly dependent on their quarterbacks.
Coaching changes may not shift the balance of power toward or away from the Bengals for 2015, but there are alterations they must make in order to remain a playoff team. The rebuilding of their front seven is almost comparable to a coaching change, however, simply because it so deeply affects the entire team's ability to win games.
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