2015 NBA Playoff Hopefuls in Precarious Positions
The top seed in each NBA conference may be protected by the sustained dominance of the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors, but rising levels of uncertainty have the potential to envelop teams residing outside of that elite cocoon.
Now, that's not to say these likely playoff participants are in danger of faltering to a degree so substantial that they risk stumbling out of the postseason picture entirely. Rather, clubs like the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and Portland Trail Blazers that are in danger of encountering midseason roadblocks could see their increasingly volatile stock fluctuate in the form of a slide down the standings.
With a variety of factors influencing each team's temporary hardships, it's time to explore the conditions affecting clubs toeing the line separating title contenders from pretenders.
Chicago Bulls
After ripping off 10 wins in 11 games during a stretch that spanned late December and early January, the Chicago Bulls have encountered a skid that's coincided with the Cleveland Cavaliers' revitalization.
Starting with a 97-77 loss to the Utah Jazz on Jan. 7, the Bulls have dropped six of their last eight games. That two-week time frame has been marked by an uncharacteristically shoddy defense that's allowed at least 100 points in five straight games dating back to Jan. 12.
Conversely, Cleveland has won three of four since LeBron James returned from a two-week absence, including a 108-94 thrashing of the Bulls on Monday night.
"We've got to get better," Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters following the Central Division debacle, according to Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "It's really that simple. The way we're playing, it's not acceptable. So we have to change it."
Thibodeau wasn't alone in blasting the Bulls' effort, either.
Point guard Derrick Rose—who's actually averaging 20.9 points on a robust 44.4 percent shooting from three over Chicago's eight-game stretch—had some choice words to describe the Bulls' recent futility, according to ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell:
As Bleacher Report's Michael Pina pointed out, Chicago's traditionally stingy defense has resembled tissue paper of late:
"Over their last 10 games, the Chicago Bulls have the fifth worst defense in the league.
— Michael Pina (@MichaelVPina) January 20, 2015"
If we narrow that sample down to the last eight games, the Bulls rank 28th in defensive efficiency, surrendering 110.4 points per 100 possessions.
Considering Thibodeau's defenses have finished first, second, sixth and second in defensive rating each of the past four seasons, respectively, those numbers are worth raising an eyebrow over.
The absences of Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy due to sprained ankles have hindered Chicago's ability to roll out waves of imposing bodies, but Rose isn't one for using that as a convenient cop-out.
"Man, we're midway through the season," Rose said, per Skolnick. "There's no excuses. Our biggest thing is competing. Playing this game for so long, and when you don't have that edge, we're going to keep getting our a-s whooped."
The Bulls have a 4.5-game cushion on the surging Cavaliers. However, Chicago's next four games will come against the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors, all in the span of six days.
The panic button hasn't been pressed just yet, but a perfect storm of Bulls losses and Cavaliers wins could signal a power shift atop the Central Division sooner rather than later.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland's precarious position hinges on the severity of LaMarcus Aldridge's hand injury, which he suffered during Monday night's 98-94 win over the Sacramento Kings.
Here's where things stand at present, according to Trail Blazers PR:
At the very least, the injury further muddies the waters for Terry Stotts' frontcourt. With center Robin Lopez already out until February with a broken right hand, the Blazers may be in danger of taking a few steps back in an extremely crowded Western Conference playoff picture should Aldridge miss extended action.
Following Monday night's win, three games separate seeds two through six, with the healthy San Antonio Spurs starting to make headway five games back in the No. 7 seed.
Where Portland turns sans Aldridge—even if it's just temporary—is a fascinating (and frightening) question to explore.
"Last year we were in a similar situation where he sat some games and we had to play a different style," point guard Damian Lillard said, according to NBA.com's Casey Holdahl. "Earlier this season, he sat a few games, and we had to switch it up a little bit. We know how we would need to play without him, so I don’t think that will be much trouble for us making that adjustment."
However, the Blazers' three wins without Aldridge this season have come against the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets. Playing against the Houston Rockets minus the mid-range savant, Portland was thumped 110-95.
In Aldridge's absence, finding any worthy complement for Chris Kaman is going to be the most strenuous of tasks. Thomas Robinson has been a rotational cog, averaging 3.5 points and 3.9 rebounds in 11.5 minutes over the course of 25 appearances.
Perhaps Meyers Leonard can function as a modified stretch 4 considering he's posting shooting splits of 52.4/44.4/87.5, but Portland's offense has been 7.4 points better per 100 possessions with him off the floor.
If desperate times do wind up calling for desperate measures, deploying Dorell Wright as a stretch 4 remains within the realm of possibility. He's played 31 percent of his minutes at power forward this season and is posting a player efficiency rating of 17.4 at that spot, per 82games.com.
A firm diagnosis is still elusive, but the simple fact that we have to hash out those doomsday scenarios points to how dire things could get as Stotts seeks to redistribute the 30 percent of plays Portland runs through Aldridge when he's on the floor.
Toronto Raptors
While the Washington Wizards currently occupy the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed, the Toronto Raptors have flirted with a foray into the No. 4 spot.
Losers of seven of their last 10 games, the Raptors' lone victories in that span have come against two Atlantic Division opponents (Philadelphia and Boston) and the Milwaukee Bucks.
And like the Bulls, Toronto's decline can be traced to a lack of defensive aptitude. Since the start of 2015, Toronto's defensive rating sits at 107.2—nearly three points worse than the club's overall mark.
According to Sportsnet.ca's Steven Loung, the Raptors' scheme has been picked apart by opponents of late:
"As witnessed by the month of November and most of December, this game plan worked to great effect as most teams in the NBA plan for and are now more used to seeing variants of the Tom Thibodeau pack-the-paint scheme.
What was working once before doesn’t appear to work quite as well anymore as teams appear to be exploiting the Raptors scheme by making them over-rotate and commit to dummy actions—hence why the team’s defence has looked so bad of late.
"
There's also the matter of shaky production from Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, who are posting troubling plus/minus ratings of minus-14.9 and minus-20.2 this month, respectively.
Like the Bulls, finding some semblance of balance is imperative to warding off a refreshed LeBron James. If not, We The North may devolve into We The First-Round Exit for the second year running.
Conclusion
There's plenty to like about all three of these teams.
Toronto's offense can be lethal, the Bulls defense has proved to be positively suffocating in spurts, and the Blazers are legitimate title contenders with their full cast of characters healthy.
Should Portland slip up due to any sort of long-term ailment to Aldridge, it may morph into a threatening underdog. At the No. 2 seed, its status is clear-cut. But if the Blazers sink a spot or two in the standings due to medical woes, it would be hard not to forecast them as dark-horse dynamos.
The same can be said of the Bulls given their depth of polished veteran talent, while the Raptors and their developing young core still feel like the most volatile member of the East's contending clubhouse given recent developments.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
