Marshawn Lynch Proving Too Important to Seahawks Offense to Consider Letting Go
After an impressive performance, NFL players like to point out that they're proving the doubters wrong.
Oftentimes, those doubters are imaginary. They don't exist. These are NFL players, and the ones that win are typically accustomed to winning despite the efforts that push the league toward parity.
One player you will never hear talk about proving the doubters wrong is Marshawn Lynch.
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That isn't because he doesn't have any doubters. It's simply because Lynch doesn't like to talk.
Lynch would be the rare example of someone who can actually claim to have proved his doubters wrong without simply shouting at straw men. Entering this season, he had two years left on his contract. He held out of training camp before having the deal reworked, but not extended.
Because of Christine Michael's presence on the roster as a recent high draft pick at his position, there was already speculation that this would be Lynch's last season in Seattle.
When the Seahawks traded Percy Harvin early in the regular season, the speculation surrounding Lynch's future grew. According to this Seattle Times article, two separate reports combined to suggest that Lynch might be traded away because of his poor relationship with head coach Pete Carroll.
At 28 years of age, Lynch isn't necessarily old, but he's at the age where running backs may start to decline. With Lynch expected to count $8.5 million against the cap next year, there is some logic that suggests moving on from the running back now would be prudent to avoid overpaying a player who is not what he once was.
The problem with that logic is, Lynch hasn't shown any signs of decline.
With Adrian Peterson sidelined, Lynch was arguably the best running back in the NFL this season. Le'Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray were both fantastic, but Lynch's well-rounded skill set and consistency while working behind a relatively poor offensive line made him stand out once again.
Against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks turned to Lynch late when quarterback Russell Wilson was struggling to keep his composure.
Needing two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks called up a play that was designed to put the ball in Lynch's hands, but it wasn't a run. Instead, Lynch was going to be the primary receiving option on a wheel route running out of the backfield.
He began the play next to Wilson in the shotgun.
To the top of the screen, wide receiver Jermaine Kearse runs an angled curl route that isn't actually a curl route. Kearse is attempting to naturally get in the way of the defender coming across to cover Lynch while drawing his own defender forward.
This is a pick play, but it's well-executed because Kearse slows down the defender without touching him. Lynch is sprung free into space.
As he had done for much of the first four quarters, Wilson failed to be sharp on this play. He didn't hit Lynch in stride, instead forcing the running back to extend slightly to catch a pass that was too close to the sideline.
Lynch made an impressive reception before sidestepping one defender and breaking the tackle of another to get to the end zone.
The touchdown was taken away because Lynch had just stepped out of bounds after adjusting to Wilson's pass. He still made an impressive catch in space, something that wasn't always considered a strength of his, to convert a crucial 2nd-and-10.
The running back followed that up with a five-yard run where he dragged defenders with him downfield before Wilson ran in a touchdown. The run came on a read-option play that saw the quarterback keep the ball while Lynch ran toward the other side of the offensive line.
While he didn't touch the ball on Wilson's touchdown run, he did play a key role by drawing the attention of two free edge-defenders. The Packers should have prevented this touchdown, but Mike Neal was drawn to Lynch even with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix already chasing him.
Lynch's presence opened up the opportunity for Wilson to score.
Wilson opened the following drive with a 15-yard run when Julius Peppers focused completely on Lynch in a similar situation. A three-yard run where Lynch fought his way through two tacklers followed before Wilson found his tight end for a first down over the middle of the field.
From there, Lynch entered Beast Mode.
One of the difficulties with defending the Seahawks is how you line up at the snap. Even when they go to three receivers, the defense is still tempted to be aggressive in the box to both contain Wilson's outside speed and gang tackle Lynch between the tackles.
The Packers initially only had a seven-man box on this play, but they were dropping a safety toward the line of scrimmage at the snap.
After letting Wilson keep the football for two important plays just before this one, the Packers forced the ball into Lynch's hands. Peppers is the key defender again, as he is unblocked to the top of the screen.
He stays outside, so Wilson pushes the ball into Lynch's chest.
As Lynch approaches the line of scrimmage, he hesitates. That allows him to watch the linebacker over the middle of the field aggressively attack his center. The Packers have four defenders trapped on the wrong side of the play, so he has space to work left.
Between his left tackle and his left guard, Lynch has a running lane to attack.
Lynch isn't given a completely clean running lane. His left tackle, Russell Okung, is incapable of completely clearing out the defender. However, Lynch is quick enough laterally and has the burst to accelerate through the hole before that defender can get more than a desperate hand on him.
The veteran running back's speed and balance is often understated, but that is only because of how easily and consistently he breaks tackles. On this play, Lynch didn't need to lower his shoulder and run through a linebacker, but he did have to fend off three tackle attempts, which he does all the time.
Using Pro Football Focus' numbers, Lynch broke his own playoff record against the Packers on Sunday. He broke 15 tackles in that game while gaining an incredible 111 of his total 157 yards after contact, by Pro FFF's measure.
Over the past few years, Lynch has dominated PFF's running back statistics.
| 2014 | 101 | 1st | 2.96 per attempt | 1st |
| 2013 | 86 | 1st | 2.5 per attempt | 7th |
| 2012 | 63 | 4th | 2.77 per attempt | 5th |
Those numbers are obviously subjective, but they support the general idea that Lynch is a back who demands extra attention and gang tackles whenever possible. Significantly, though, he isn't just a running back who relies on his physical talent to gain yards.
Carroll said of Lynch's abilities, courtesy of Jayson Jenks of The Seattle Times:
"It’s our guys taking advantage of his special qualities ... He was able to take advantage of space — and sometimes no space. Somebody had a stat — I don’t know these numbers — but yards after first contact in this game was really high. No kidding, look at the film. He just would not go down.
"
Lynch elevates the play of every single run-blocker working for him because of his awareness, anticipation and creativity.
He rarely ever makes bad decisions with the football and can attack any area of the defense from any starting position. This is what separates Lynch from his potential heir, Michael. Michael is an explosive running back, but he has failed to supplant Robert Turbin as the team's primary backup.
That is because Michael isn't a well-rounded player for the passing game and lacks the natural running ability of the two veterans ahead of him. Especially Lynch.
Over the past three years, Lynch has accounted for 992 regular-season touches. Those touches have gone for 5,032 yards and 43 touchdowns. He has averaged more than five yards every time he has touched the ball during the past three regular seasons.
Over the Seahawks' last three postseason runs, Lynch has accounted for 149 touches. Those touches have gone for 763 yards and seven touchdowns. He has averaged more than 5.1 yards per touch in that time.
If they decide to release him ahead of next season, they will save $7 million. That's a significant amount, but it won't replace his value to the team.
Lynch is performing so well and proving so valuable that the Seahawks should happily overpay him during his declining years to not miss out on quality in his prime. Instead of cutting him, it may make more sense to extend his contract and front-load his guaranteed money before the thick of Wilson's expected new contract kicks in.
Regardless of how they do it, the Seahawks simply have to hold onto Lynch for as long as they possibly can.
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