2015 Super Bowl: An Early Guide to NFL's Championship Game
For the first time since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots won three out of four Super Bowls, an NFL team may defend the Lombardi Trophy.
The Seattle Seahawks completed one of the most dramatic NFC Championship Game wins of all time versus the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, coming back from a 16-0 deficit to win 28-22 in overtime and clinch their berth in Super Bowl XLIX. There, they'll face the New England Patriots, who destroyed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 on Sunday night. Despite a hard-earned reputation for being one of the league's best playoff teams, New England is 3-3 in AFC Championship Games and 0-2 in Super Bowls since 2004.
After a miserable four-interception outing nearly ended his team's season a week early, Russell Wilson has a chance to become the youngest quarterback in NFL history to win two Super Bowls. He'll have to go through the current record-holder, Tom Brady.
Should the Patriots win, Brady would be the first quarterback to go a decade between Super Bowl victories. Not only would it cement his place as one of the very best of all time, but it would also mark the Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots as the greatest dynasty the NFL has ever seen.
Super Bowl XLVIII's matchup between the Seahawks and Denver Broncos was widely regarded as the best on-paper matchup in years; instead it was arguably the least competitive Super Bowl of all time. This season, the two No. 1 seeds will again play for all the marbles; let's hope the title game isn't over after one snap.
Crucial Info: What, Who, When, Where
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Here's everything you need to know about the NFL's ultimate matchup:
What: Super Bowl XLIX, the NFL's championship game
Who: Seattle Seahawks (1) vs. New England Patriots (1)
When: Sunday, Feb. 1, 6:30 p.m. on NBC
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Why: Because what else was all this football for?
Matchup at a Glance
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New England Patriots Offense: No. 4 in scoring (29.2 PPG average), No. 22 in rushing yards per attempt, No. 20 in passing yards per attempt.
Seattle Seahawks Offense: No. 10 in scoring (24.6 PPG average), No. 1 in rushing yards per attempt, No. 6 in passing yards per attempt.
New England Patriots Defense: No. 8 in scoring (19.6 PPG average), No. 9 in rushing yards per attempt, No. 15 in passing yards per attempt.
Seattle Seahawks Defense: No. 1 in scoring (15.9 PPG average allowed), No. 2 in rushing yards per attempt, No. 2 in passing yards per attempt.
The Patriots are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, with a top-five offense and top-10 defense. Offensively, despite not racking up huge yardage totals, they always find a way to put up points. Defensively, their lack of consistent pass rush can sometimes expose the secondary, and they can be run on—but again, even when New England bends, it tends not to break.
The Seahawks defense doesn't bend or break. After a relatively weak start to the season, the defensive players re-established themselves as the best unit in the NFL. They can't be run on or passed on, at least not consistently.
Offensively, the Seahawks have the best run game in football. Wilson and his overachieving receiver corps are decently productive; that the combination of the two still results in "decently productive" shows how important the passing game is to scoring.
Top Storylines
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Revis vs. Sherman
Usually, we save artificial matchup narratives between guys who don't play directly against each other for the quarterback position. Yet, Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis and Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman will be directly compared and contrasted all game.
In fact, given Sherman's outgoing, media-friendly nature and his longstanding competition with Revis for the "Best Cornerback in the NFL" title, expect this to be a battle of words and media articles fought long and hard before either steps onto the University of Phoenix Stadium field.
The Belichick and Brady Legacy
Both of these men have long since staked their claims to being two of the best who have ever been. Their working relationship has been the most productive of any head coach and quarterback by just about any measure.
Yet, they've spent the last 10 long years atop the NFL with no ring to show for it. Obviously, the three-in-four run that preceded this "dry spell" offsets it to a degree. Still, no NFL nucleus has managed to win championships 10 years apart, because this kind of sustained excellence is all but impossible.
"It’s a great challenge," Brady said, according to the team's official Twitter account. "We’re going to play a great team...We’ll be ready to go."
If the Patriots are ready, and do beat the Seahawks, Brady and Belichick will have answered every single question once and for all—not to mention permanently shut up the Spygate truthers.
Wilson Affirmation
Russell Wilson, it seems, will be the new Joe Flacco. That is, he'll be the guy we spend all offseason debating whether he's amazing, good, average, mediocre or terrible. Pick your tribe or Twitter hashtag now, but beware: An exceptionally strong (or weak) Super Bowl performance by Wilson could have you looking foolish in a flash!
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How They Got Here
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Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks finished the regular season at 12-4, defending the NFC West division title and earning the NFC's No. 1 seed.
After their hard-won first-round bye, the Seahawks hosted the Carolina Panthers. This rematch of a brutal, gritty 13-9 Week 8 win featured quite a bit more scoring, but even the 31-17 outcome couldn't hide what a hard-fought contest it was. The Panthers were in it right up until a late-game red-zone pick-six by safety Kam Chancellor.
Words struggle to describe the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers. It was a messy, sloppy, all-time classic that had to be seen to be believed.
The Seahawks started off in a 16-0 hole, and Wilson threw four interceptions. With the help of a few miraculous plays (including a botched onside-kick recovery by the Packers), the Seahawks took their first lead of the game with just 1:25 left in regulation.
That wasn't the end of it, though. The Packers quickly worked back downfield, and kicker Mason Crosby drilled a 48-yarder to force overtime. Wilson quickly atoned for his mistakes, finding receiver Jermaine Kearse in the end zone to seal their second straight NFC title.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots struggled through the first four games of the season before flipping a switch and finishing as the AFC's No. 1 seed. The 12-4 Patriots were awarded a first-round bye before hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.
The Ravens' ground attack and pass rush put the Patriots in two separate 14-point holes, but New England climbed back out of both. In the end, Brady and the Patriots made one more play than Flacco and the Ravens did, and New England survived.
As tough of a matchup as the Ravens posed for the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts were as easy. No slight to the Colts, a tough, talented team with a great young quarterback. But the game was never in doubt, and the Patriots just kept pouring it on.
How do the Seahawks and Patriots match up?
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
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Russell Wilson had the worst outing of his life in the NFC Championship Game, and it was still good enough to take the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
Wilson has been excellent throughout the season, finishing 10th in both NFL passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, despite having his only explosive receiver (Percy Harvin) traded away from him in the middle of the season.
He doesn't throw nearly as often as most other starting quarterbacks, so his raw numbers aren't impressive. But he's played at a very high level throughout 2014 and is easily capable of taking over a game and winning it all by himself.
He usually doesn't need to, of course, as tailback Marshawn Lynch remains the foundation of the offense.
He co-led the NFL in rushing touchdowns for the second consecutive year, with 13. He racked up the second-highest yardage total of his career, with 1,306, and he did it while averaging a robust 4.7 yards per carry.
The Seahawks receivers don't scare anyone by themselves. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are nice players, but neither has exceptional size or speed, and neither is particularly lethal in any part of his game. They are, however, smart, tough players who can get into open space for Wilson. As the Packers found out in overtime of the NFC Championship Game, they are perfectly capable of getting behind a defense.
Tight end Luke Willson is an underrated pass-catching threat, and change-of-pace tailback Robert Turbin does damage when he gets an opportunity.
Up front, the Seahawks finished in the middle of the pack in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking (17th) and run-blocking grades (18th). Center Max Unger blows open holes in the middle, and left tackle Russell Okung is an athletic pass-protector.
The Patriots aren't as dominant up front as the great Richard Seymour-led units of yore, but linebacker Jamie Collins has become the do-everything heartbeat of the front seven. Superstar cornerback Darrelle Revis has transformed the secondary, erasing opponents' top receivers and freeing safety Devin McCourty to fly around and make plays.
The Patriots defense is most challenged by a team that can control the line of scrimmage with a power-run game, as the Baltimore Ravens did. If the Seahawks can open up holes for Lynch early, that'll be a great sign for their ability to score points all game. If not, Wilson will have a tough task trying to score against that defense.
When the Patriots Have the Ball
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Quarterback Tom Brady is one of the best to ever have played, and his post-September form has been excellent. The Patriots finished the season with the fourth-best scoring offense in the NFL, and they hung a 45-7 beatdown on the Colts in the AFC Championship Game.
That said, the running-game-by-committee approach they have used all season has struggled with consistency. Current feature back LeGarrette Blount racked up 148 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, but the Patriots as a whole managed just 14 yards on 13 carries against the Ravens.
It's easy to see Blount and Co. similarly struggling against the Seahawks' No. 1 scoring defense.
Receiver Brandon LaFell has been a pleasant surprise, an effective addition to the team's receiving corps. At 12.9 yards per reception, he's been the only outside deep threat.
Of course, the only terrifying receiving weapon in New England is tight end Rob Gronkowski, whose 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns are second, first and first among all Patriots. Only receiver Julian Edelman's 92 catches top Gronk in anything.
New England's offensive line is a mixed bag: Beefy right tackle Sebastian Vollmer has led the Patriots to having the 11th-best run-blocking line, per Pro Football Focus, but the team ranks a disappointing 28th in pass protection.
We've seen this story before with Brady in the Super Bowl: When his pass protection isn't there, and a team has a stout pass rush, he can be overwhelmed.
That said, the Seahawks' sack rate only ranked 11th in the NFL, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, a step behind the seventh-ranked Baltimore Ravens—whose better pass rush wasn't good enough to stop the Patriots offense for four quarters.
The story, of course, is the legendary Legion of Boom secondary, which matches up very well against New England. Seahawks All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman will have no trouble covering either LaFell or Edelman, and No. 2 corner Byron Maxwell should do well against the other.
The real matchup is Gronkowski against strong safety Kam Chancellor, who had a signature performance against Carolina. This matchup alone would be worth the price of admission, if the price of admission didn't run into four figures.
X-Factors
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We know Brady and Wilson, Lynch and Revis. Who are the role players who can change the game?
- LeGarrette Blount: The Patriots tailback had a massive 30-carry, 148-yard, three-touchdown AFC Championship Game. He's more likely to get going when the Patriots' pass game is working, but if he can get some chunk yards early against the Seahawks defense, it could preoccupy safety Kam Chancellor long enough to free tight end Rob Gronkowski for big gains.
- Luke Willson: The best combination of size (6'5", 252 lbs) and speed the Seahawks have in any offensive weapon, the athletic tight end managed just two catches for 11 yards against the Packers. If Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are going to keep up with Brady and the Patriots, the tight end will need to get much more involved.
- Cliff Avril: It seems like Avril is good for a strip-sack every other game, but the monster pass rush that powered last season's run to the Super Bowl championship hasn't been nearly as dominant this year. He was the only Seahawk to take down Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game, and Seattle will have to rattle Brady even more. Avril might be the only one who can bring that game-changing heat.
- Jamie Collins: OK, OK, this one's a little bit cheating. I already wrote an article about Collins being the Patriots' X-Factor. But it's true: The team relies on him for so much, in every phase of the game. If he has a big day against Wilson, Willson and the Seahawks, look out.
Who's Going to Win?
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The Patriots have balance, veteran leadership and the best head coach in the game.
That said, the Seahawks' No. 1 scoring defense just matches up too well against the Patriots' receiving corps and offensive line. As well as Tom Brady's been playing, Aaron Rodgers has been even better—and Rodgers was stymied by this Seattle squad.
New England's run game could mysteriously show up, as it did against Indianapolis, but we know Lynch will bust at least one big run and maybe quite a few medium-sized scampers.
Unless Wilson goes out and has the worst game of his life again, the Seahawks win, 27-23.
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