Colts vs Patriots: Final Odds, Spread Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2015

The second-to-last contest of the 2014 season promises to be a memorable one, pegging the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots against one another for Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

It's yet another AFC title game appearance for the Pats, who have now reached this point nine times—all of which have come in the Tom Brady era. But if they aren't truly bound to end a decade-long Super Bowl drought, they might meet their match against a surging Colts team led by Andrew Luck.

This being the last NFL game this season short of Super Bowl XLIX, the sad reality of months ahead without football won't put a damper on a game that should produce far-reaching impact for the legacies of two of the NFL's most recognizable faces.

Now that game day has officially arrived, let's look at how the final odds are shaking out and who has the advantage.

Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Patriots -6.5	53.5	IND 12-5 / NE 5-13

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated January 17

AFC Championship Preview

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The Patriots and Colts organizations are well accustomed to playing against one another with a Super Bowl trip on the line, but Sunday's game promises to be nothing like their previous ventures.

Of course, the primary reason hinges upon the exodus of Peyton Manning from Indianapolis, followed by an almost unnoticeable rebuild before Luck slowly brought the Colts back to the top. But the changes are apparent on New England's side, which boasts a number of different names from their most recent run to the Super Bowl in the 2011 season.

Even amid all the changes, New England jumps out as the team with the most experience on this sort of stage. But don't count head coach Bill Belichick among those factoring that into Sunday's game.

“Zero," Belichick told The Boston Globe's Shalise Manza Young about how much experience will factor in. "I think it will be the team that plays the best, I don’t think it’s about how many All-Pros, or how many playoff games (you have),” he said. “I’ve been on plenty of teams that didn’t have any experience and won. We can go through the league and find just as many examples of that."

There's one key area where Belichick is wrong. Experience should benefit New England in a big way when its cornerbacks go up against Luck's high-powered passing attack.

Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have been locking down opposing wideouts all season long, and their physical nature stymied some of Indianapolis' best receivers when the two met in Week 11. The Pats rank just 17th against the pass, but those numbers don't do justice to Revis and Browner's impact.

The Patriots' experience in fighting the elements should also loom large.

Per Weather.com, the forecast for Sunday's game is set to include heavy doses of rain at Gillette Stadium. The impact of weather can be overstated, but a rainy game will inevitably leave both pass-happy teams more focused on the run game.

That's another area in which the Patriots should prosper. They scampered for almost 250 yards against Indianapolis earlier this season, while the Colts rank just 22nd on the ground despite playing in a climate-controlled home stadium.

The Patriots will completely eliminate the Colts' rushing attack and force Luck to sling his way to victory, which simply won't be in the cards. But the Indianapolis quarterback has effective weapons in the middle of the field (like Coby Fleener) to move the ball and keep the scoreline somewhat close.

Indianapolis' impressive cover corners will limit Brady through the air, but only enough to keep the Colts in it. Eventually, Luck will force the issue and make some mistakes while the Patriots will run their way to a tight victory.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 27